August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby Rip76 » Fri Aug 24, 2018 3:29 pm

Just reading through these last few pages feels like yesterday.
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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby TexasBreeze » Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:17 pm

One year ago NWS advisory map...

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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Aug 25, 2018 7:37 am

One year ago at his time we were facing a still rapidly intensifying CAT 3 Harvey offshore of the Texas Coast. Outer Rain bands would follow later in the day in Houston as CAT 4 Harvey moved onshore near Port Aransas. That began the Catastrophe that would unfold over the next 5 to 6 days...
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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby Rip76 » Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:23 am

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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby ticka1 » Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:42 am

Just a side note - i am seeing alot of stories i didnt see because we lost internet and cellphone service. Still gives me chills just revisiting Harvey and its devastation.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:02 pm

Bump to a post made around this time on August 25, 2017. It can be found on page 100 on this thread...

mckinne63 wrote:I want to thank everyone for keeping us updated on all that is going on. Because of this forum, we are prepared. Though can't really prepare for unprecedented flooding. The area I live in isn't prone to flooding but with so much rain and a few drainage canals near us, I am really afraid. During Allison we had flooding in the street and lapping up the driveway, but did not get close to the house. Praying for everyone.
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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Aug 25, 2018 5:26 pm

Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
600 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017

...6 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...HARVEY BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...

Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Harvey
has become a category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of
130 mph (215 km/h).

A station at Aransas Pass run by the Texas Coastal Observing
Network recently reported a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) with
a gust to 96 mph (154 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 96.7W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake
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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 26, 2018 8:18 am

Saturday: August 26, 2017 1242am

Rainbands along the eastern edge of the circulation of major hurricane Harvey have been training for the last several hours from the western end of Galveston Island to near southern Waller County. These bands have not moved NNE into Harris County at this time, but there is the potential for the bands to gradually edge slowly into Harris County, especially the SW portions over the next several hours.

These bands are producing heavy rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour with storm totals averaging 3-5 inches over the last few hours from central Brazoria County to southern Fort Bend County where a flash flood warning has recently been issued

Note:
Water levels in Clear Lake have risen to 4.0 ft and 4.3 ft near Nassau Bay due to strong easterly winds piling the water into Clear Lake

08262018 Jeff 1 untitled.png


Saturday: August 26, 2017 200pm

Harvey weakens to a still powerful category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 125mph and makes a second landfall on the NE side of Copano Bay

Maximum peak wind gust recorded: 132mph at Aransas Pass at 942pm…surprisingly this sensor has continued to report

Winds:

Port Lavaca: 55 g 75
Port O Connor: 58 g 79
Matagorda Bay Entrance: 54 g 74
East Matagorda: 57 g 62
La Ward: g 45
Aransas Wildlife Refuge: 72 g 93
Matagorda Island: sensor failed
Aransas Pass Pier: 63g 74 (peak 109mph)
Galveston: 32 g 41
Surfside: 39 g 50
Palacios: 39 g 58
Edna: 37 g 55

Storm Surge:
Significant storm surge in progress along the NW portion of Lavaca Bay.

Port Lavaca: 7.19 ft
Seadrift: 4.52 ft
GLS Pier 21: 3.61 ft
Eagle Point: 3.63 ft

Widespread rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches has fallen over Matagorda and Brazoria Counties with totals of 2-4 inches across Jackson, Wharton, and Fort Bend Counties

Rainfall totals in the eyewall region have already exceeded 12-15 inches.

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Saturday: August 26, 2017 421am

Powerful hurricane Harvey pounding the coastal bend and SC TX with hurricane force winds

Event will slowly transition into a very dangerous and life threatening flood event

A devastating hurricane landfall has occurred with many reports of structural damage and collapsed homes/buildings. Numerous towns have 911 calls with trapped persons inside collapsed buildings including: Portland, Rockport, Refugio, and Port Aransas

Many observation sites have either failed or lost power so we are getting very few winds reading any more. The surface pressure has risen from 938mb at landfall to 956mb currently and sustained winds have decreased from 130 to 110. Hurricane force winds…mainly in strong gust will continue to affect the Matagorda Bay region and SC TX/brush country through late morning.

Damaging storm surge continues to fill NW Matagorda Bay with Port Lavaca currently reporting a surge of 7.47 ft (appears near peak) and Seadrift on the eastern part of San Antonio Bay reporting 5.40 ft. Given the position of Harvey, continued strong (near hurricane force) winds will continue to push water into Matagorda Bay and pile it into the upper portions of Lavaca Bay around Port Lavaca and Point Comfort

Rainfall:
Overall event will be transitioning to a flash flood/flood event today and continue for the next several days. Heavy core rainfall continues near the center with rainfall totals already nearing 15 inches. Significant banding continues to develop and train NW across SE TX especially over Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties where widespread rainfall of 6-8 inches has occurred overnight with isolated totals of up to nearly 10 inches. A LCRA gage at Bay City has recorded 8.92 inches in the last 24 hours.

Recent discussion from WPC highlights the I-45 corridor through the morning hours for the formation of very heavy rainfall and this appears possible given recent radar trends showing rapid development of numerous training cells over the NW Gulf and the slow approach of an impressive feeder band currently moving into Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties. Hourly rainfall rates have been increasing on radar into the 2.0-2.5 inch range. Trends on radar will need to be monitored closely over the next several hours

Tornadoes:
There have been numerous tornado warnings overnight with cells moving across Brazoria and Fort Bend Counties. These cells are racing NW and producing short lived tornadoes. One touch down in Missouri City has produced damage to homes and minor injuries. Additionally, the stronger cells in the feeder bands are resulting in the transport of higher momentum to the surface and wind gusts of 45-55mph which is causing some power outages.

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Saturday: August 26, 2017 609am

Flash Flood Warning for south and central Harris County until 845am

Strong feeder band is approaching from the SSW and converging with numerous incoming cells moving inland off the Gulf of Mexico. A quick 2-3 inches of rainfall will be possible over the SW half of Harris County over the next 1-1.5 hours.

Street flooding is the main concern at this time, but rises on creeks and bayous will commence with these heavy rains.


Saturday: August 26, 2017 406pm

Potentially catastrophic and life threatening flood event remains with a weakening Harvey.

Air images today from the landfall areas around Rockport, Port Aransas, and Aransas Pass shows significant structural damage has occurred and some buildings and homes were completely blown apart.

As bad as it is across the coastal bend…the attention must now focus on the potential for continued widespread heavy rainfall and the impacts of this rainfall.

Rainfall amounts of 15-20 inches with isolated totals of 30 inches or greater will be possible across the a large portion of SC and SE TX and the Coastal Bend. This result of this rainfall will be nothing short of historic and catastrophic.

Rivers, Bayous, Creeks:

Forecast from the river forecast center are as follows:

I want to caution everyone that these forecast are based on WPC QPF for the next 72 hours and the following levels are being produced. Understand that there is uncertainty there and that shifts in the highest rainfall could change these forecasts.

Lavaca/Navidad River: major to record
Colorado River (below Columbus): major
San Bernard: record…entire basin
Brazos (below I-10)…major
West Fork San Jacinto: major
East Fork San Jacinto: minor to major
Lower San Jacinto (below Lake Houston): major

Harris County Bayous and Creek: numerous points are forecast to reach minor to major flood levels. However we are extremely sensitive to how fast and where the rain falls and what kind of rises that will produce on these specific watersheds. We will have a better idea of how the Harris County bayous and creeks will react as the rainfall pattern unfolds.


Saturday: August 26, 2017 738pm

Flash flood warning for Harris County until 915pm.

Strong feeder band moving into the western portion of Harris County producing excessive short term rainfall rates of 2.0-2.5 inches. Total rainfall amounts in the last 24 hours has averaged 6-9 inches from Sugar Land near Katy and over northern Waller County. This band may produce rainfall of 2-4 inches over the next few hours.

Creeks in the western part of the county are high and this band of rainfall may bring them to bankfull or above in certain areas


Saturday: August 26, 2017 857pm

Intense feeder band is developing and intensifying from Brazoria County into NW Harris County producing excessive rainfall of 1-3 inches per hour.

Rapid flash flooding will be developing along with significant rises on area creeks and bayous. Some creeks and bayous may exceed their banks.

08262018 Jeff 10 untitled.png


Saturday: August 26, 2017 1045pm

Flash Flood Emergency for south-central and central Harris County until 1215am

Feeder band producing intense rainfall rates of 3-5 inches per hour moving slowly ESE over SC Harris County. Several HCFCD FWS gages have recorded over 4 inches of rainfall in the last hour and an additional 2-6 inches of rainfall in the next hour is likely. Dangerous flash flooding is likely along with rapid rises on area bayous and creeks…some to levels that will result in flooding. Travel is strongly discouraged and many roadways are quickly becoming impassable….remain at your current location!


Saturday: August 26, 2017 1059pm

6.5 inches in 1 hour on Beamer Ditch in SE Harris County is 1 inch over the 500-yr rainfall frequency

Several watersheds nearing or exceeding banks in southern and southeastern Harris County.

Slow moving intense feeder band producing 4-6 inch per hour rainfall rates resulting in extremely dangerous flash flooding conditions. Additional rainfall of 4-6 inches on top of what has already fallen is likely resulting in 2 hours totals of 8-11 inches over some areas.

This is a life threatening flash flood situation. Do NOT travel!


Saturday: August 26, 2017 1109pm

Flash Flood Emergency expanded and extended until 145am for Harris County.

Extremely dangerous and life threatening flash flood event in progress over south and southeast Harris County.

Numerous watersheds are exceeding their banks including Brays Bayou, Beamer Ditch, Berry Bayou, Turkey Creek, Chigger Creek, Cowart Creek, Armand Bayou, Hunting Bayou. Structure flooding is likely along these channels.

Several other watersheds are rising very quickly and may exceed their banks including lower White Oak Bayou, Buffalo Bayou, Clear Creek, Little Cypress Creek, Keegans Bayou
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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 26, 2018 9:45 am

Going back through some saved graphics and I found these HRRR precipitation forecast. I began truly sinking in that SE Texas would be in serious trouble from flooding very heavy rainfall over the next 18 hours and beyond.

08262017 16Z  18 hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

08262017 19Z 18 hrrr_apcpn_scus_18.png

08262017_2037Z_goes13_x_vis2km_09LHARVEY_60kts-987mb-291N-976W_90pc.jpg
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Re: August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:01 am

A year ago this morning we had endured a long night of extremely heavy rainfall across some of SE Texas, where rainfall rates of 3 to 5 inches per hour were common in those areas that were impacted my a series of stalled feeder bands and their excessive training very heavy rainfall. the old KHOU Studios on Allen Parkway were in the mist of their final broadcast from that facility as waters from Buffalo Bayou began entering the ground floor. In a short hour or two this time last year, their transmitter would be flooded and Channel 11 went blank for 7 hours until the Staff could be evacuated and could establish a make shift facility at the University of Houston/PBS Channel 8 studios. Last Sunday I visited those facilities at U of H and toured their Operations today. I am still in amazement that KHOU is able to broadcast. It speaks volumes to their dedicated Staff from Anchors, Reporters, Producers and their IT and Technical teams that literally operate out of a room filled with banks of folding tables and chairs with laptops on the tables to an 18 Wheel Transmitter Truck parked outside with a tremendous amount of Air Conditioning piped in to keep the computers "cold" enough to send their signal out to the World. The make shift News Studio has become almost as you would expect from the 4th largest Television Market in the United States. Thanks for the tour, Blake. I now fully understand the difficulty it been just to keep us all up and running, even to our very own KHOU Weather Forum.

08272017 0412Z houston_13_20170827041217.jpg

08272017 12Z 3km NAM 30 nam3km_apcpn_scus_10.png

08272017 1436Z VIS meso1_02_20170827143655.jpg

08272017 1936Z VIS latest.jpg

08272017 HGX Rainfall Graphic DIRQF3DVoAAX9nO.jpg
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