August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby Nuby33 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:10 am

Rip76 wrote:Did an actual front come through, or is the ground surface just cooler from all the rain?
Along with the breeze.

might experience evaporational cooling. you guys all live at the lake now.. lake eerie
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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:22 am

Drier air associated with the Northerly flow on the back side of Harvey will means lower dew points. Refreshing for those involved in Search and Rescue.

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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby Heat Miser » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:43 am

I grew up in Friendswood and that breaks my heart srain. I know Forest Bend and The Forest of Friendswood were probably hit hard and I'm sure just about everywhere in between. Tried just to travel to 528 & Bay Area Blvd yesterday and still couldn't get through the water, plus rescue boats including probably five Game Warden trucks parked along the road. From Dickinson all the way to Spring this storm caused damage and unfortunately cost lives. I really believe people thought they had time and it would be a long duration event, when the real event, at least for us down here, happened on the night of August 26th 27th. That's when we had intense, extremely intense rain where I reside. Unfortunately, despite the many warnings and advisories it still caught people by surprise on how fast the water actually rose.
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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:41 am

HGX has made the decision to Extend the Flood Warning and expand it to include areas impacted by rising waters from Rivers, Streams, Creeks, Bayous and Reservoirs/Levees...including our Freeway Systems and surface Roads.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1004 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

Jackson TX-Grimes TX-Washington TX-Galveston TX-Montgomery TX-
San Jacinto TX-Houston TX-Brazoria TX-Chambers TX-Waller TX-Polk TX-
Walker TX-Harris TX-Trinity TX-Colorado TX-Wharton TX-Austin TX-
Fort Bend TX-Liberty TX-Matagorda TX-
1004 AM CDT WED AUG 30 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Eastern Jackson County in south central Texas...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Washington County in southeastern Texas...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Houston County in southeastern Texas...
Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Polk County in southeastern Texas...
Walker County in southeastern Texas...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...
Trinity County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Eastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1000 AM CDT Thursday.

* At 1000 AM CDT, automated rain gauges indicated that heavy rain
had fallen over the area. Multiple rivers, bayous and creeks are
still in flood and surrounging areas around these basins are in
flood. Streets and underpasses still have water in urban areas and
will be slow to drain. These are still life threatening conditions.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pasadena, Pearland, League City, Sugar Land, Baytown, Missouri
City, Conroe, Galveston Island West End, Galveston Causeway, Texas
City, Huntsville, Friendswood, La Porte, Deer Park, Rosenberg, Lake
Jackson, Alvin, Angleton, Dickinson and Stafford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby Texaspirate11 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:46 am

For those who can help in recovery


We are doing a local donation drop off for medical supplies needed for people with disabilities.

DONATIONS NEEDED ASAP. PLEASE HELP!

On Wednesday, August 30, 2017 from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. we will be welcoming donations for specific items to support our disability community who have been affected by the recent floods. Items can be delivered to West Gray Multipurpose Center located at 1475 West Gray Street, Houston, TX 77019.

Please limit donations to these specific items. All other supplies will need to be turned away.

- wheelchairs
- wheelchair cushions
- walkers
- canes
- catheters
- diapers (children and adult)
- gloves
- bed liners

This effort is in collaboration with The City of Houston and other local nonprofits including Rehabilitation Services Volunteer Project (RSVP) and Ms. Wheelchair Texas.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:38 am

srainhoutx wrote:Drier air associated with the Northerly flow on the back side of Harvey will means lower dew points. Refreshing for those involved in Search and Rescue.

Image



That's an amazing view. It's remarkable to see harvey still fighting off the dry air.

Thoughts and prayers to all in Houston, Beaumont, and now Louisiana.
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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:07 pm

mcheer23 wrote:12z GFS is just not what the gulf wants


Let's use the September Topic for this information regarding next week.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2176
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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby unome » Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:31 pm

some good reads, though heart-wrenching

from Eric Berger:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/08 ... -the-same/

Jeff Masters
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/anoth ... ort-arthur

"A nice summary of how #Harvey happened from the NHC forecaster point of view: From Forecast to Disaster via @NYTimes" thanks to Eric Blake's Twitter feed for this find
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/30/us/h ... eline.html
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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:55 pm

08302017 mcd0768.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0768
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST TX...WEST AND NORTH LA...WEST-CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 301810Z - 302310Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAIN BANDS FROM FAR EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN BANDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

DISCUSSION...THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RAIN BANDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF T.S. HARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY IN THE PAST
6-12 HOURS...WITH AN ARCING HEAVY RAIN BAND PERSISTING TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...AND HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. DUAL POL RAIN RATES OBSERVED BY THE NWS
RADAR NETWORK HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PEAKING IN THE 1.5-2.0 IN/HR
RANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH
MRMS RAIN RATES AS WELL.

NON-OPERATIONAL GOES-16 IR CHANNELS REVEAL A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION AS OF 18Z...AND THAT MAY BE KEEPING THE
RAIN RATES LOWER THAN THE PROLIFIC NUMBERS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT
WHEN DEEP CONVECTION WAS PRESENT. AND THE GOES-16 MICROPHYSICS AND
CONVECTION RGBS GENERALLY CONFIRM WEAKER CONVECTION AS WELL.

THEREFORE RAIN RATES WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER DEEPER
CONVECTION CAN BE RE-ESTABLISHED CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
HOWEVER...EVEN PERSISTENCE OF ONGOING RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WOULD BE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE RAIN BANDS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. HOWEVER...AN INCREASE
IN THE RAIN RATES WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THE
SEVERITY OF THE ONGOING FLOODING...OR LEAD TO NEW AREAS OF
FLOODING AS EVENING APPROACHES. THE HRRR IS NOT KEEN ON THIS
HAPPENING...WITH SIMULATED IR BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES REMAINING
RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH 00Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS FROM 18-00Z...WITH THE PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN FROM
THE HREF YIELDING AN ADDITIONAL 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS A
HIGH-CONFIDENCE SIGNAL IN CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN AND FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...MODELS ALSO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
HEAVY RAIN AS CONVERGENT RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF HARVEY'S CIRCULATION. THESE RAIN BANDS ARE
NARROWER...ONLY 10-20 MILES WIDE AS OF 18Z...AND THUS MAY PROVIDE
A MORE TRANSIENT OR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
HOWEVER...TRAINING OF THE RAIN BANDS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO MAY
PRODUCE RAIN RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO GENERATE FLASH FLOODING...AND
THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN IN THIS AREA MAY EXPAND AS
HARVEY DRIFTS CLOSER.

LAMERS

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: August 2017: Harvey/Catastrophic Flood/Recovery

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:29 pm

Velma and Dr. Neil just called to check in. They are safe and dry. They're keeping a keen eye on the Brazos River Rise, but for now all is well with these Saints.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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