August 2017: Looking Back at Harvey 1 Year Later

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby Belmer » Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:39 pm

jasons wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...


I'm concerned tonight will be a repeat. I'm watching the CAPE increase with the warm air out in the gulf, feeding into SE Texas. Once we hit nighttime again, that air is going to cool and those bands will just dump again like a ringer.



HRRR is painting a little better picture overnight.. anywhere from 3-8 inches. But NAM 3km which has done very well so far too is showing a much scarier different picture. So for our sake, I hope the HRRR verifies (or not... less rain would be great).
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby djmike » Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:48 pm

Thats not good for beaumont!!!! We've already received 18"-20" lastnight. Praying no repeat!
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:49 pm

djmike wrote:Thats not good for beaumont!!!! We've already received 18"-20" lastnight. Praying no repeat!


No, not good for you at all.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:52 pm

NWS Houston @NWSHouston19m
Thru 2 PM, Houston has a Aug rainfall total of 25.50 inches making Aug the wettest month on record, surpassing Jun 2001. #txwx #houwx #bcswx
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:00 pm

Belmer wrote:
jasons wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Another feeder band moving into west Houston now - not as strong as previous bands. High-res HRRR model which predicted the 18+ inches in Houston last night intensifies this feeder band across east Houston by 10pm and moves it east into the Beaumont/Port Arthur area by midnight. Might not be too bad here tonight.

My forecast takes the center of Harvey across Houston on Wednesday (as a TD), by the way...


I'm concerned tonight will be a repeat. I'm watching the CAPE increase with the warm air out in the gulf, feeding into SE Texas. Once we hit nighttime again, that air is going to cool and those bands will just dump again like a ringer.



HRRR is painting a little better picture overnight.. anywhere from 3-8 inches. But NAM 3km which has done very well so far too is showing a much scarier different picture. So for our sake, I hope the HRRR verifies (or not... less rain would be great).
Attachments
08272017 12Z 3km NAM 30 nam3km_apcpn_scus_10.png
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:15 pm

08272017 mcd1587.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Texas...southwestern
Louisiana...and adjacent coastal waters

Concerning...Tornado Watch 471...

Valid 272007Z - 272200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 471 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues across WW 471.

DISCUSSION...The general regime supporting occasional tornado
activity remains in place. Although stronger buoyancy remains
mostly offshore and along immediate coastal areas, scattered bands
and cells within the Watch area are continuing to exhibit occasional
rotation and result in a threat of brief tornadoes. Harvey remains
nearly stationary, and this regime should continue well into the
evening hours and through the remainder of the Watch (07Z).

A brief lull has been noted in convection across a large part of
southwestern Louisiana. Previous convective overturning has
resulted in slightly cooler surface temperatures (around 73-75F) and
stratiform precipitation/cloudiness is currently limiting
destabilization. However, additional rotating convection off the
coast just south of this region will approach within the next hour
or so, and southeasterly low-level flow may lead to advection of
more buoyant air into this region and potentially result in an
increasing tornado threat returning to that region over the next 1-2
hours.

..Cook.. 08/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:19 pm

Getting a bit breezy again up here in NW Harris County as the next feeder band advances East.

That persistent velocity indicator over portions of Waller County has been there for some time.

Image
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:26 pm

Heads up folks near Mission Bend. Tornado Warning coming.

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT.

* At 328 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Mission Bend, moving northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Sugar Land, Stafford, Katy, Town West, Addicks Park
Ten, Mission Bend, Eldridge / West Oaks, Spring Branch West,
Meadows Place, Westchase, Cinco Ranch, Westwood, Briar Forest, Four
Corners, Cypress, Alief, Braeburn, Sharpstown, Brays Oaks and
Addicks.

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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby don » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:31 pm

I dont like the look of the radar now across the county, it looks like the rain may be filling back in...
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Catastrophic Flooding/Torna

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Aug 27, 2017 3:38 pm

Update from Jeff:

Catastrophic flooding continues across Harris and nearby surrounding counties.

Center of Harvey is nearly stationary north of Victoria with strong rain bands continuing to produce excessive rainfall over the region.

Recent rainfall of 1-3 inches has occurred especially in the ESE part of Harris County.

Storm totals are approaching 15-20 inches across nearly all of Harris County for the last 24 hours and 25-30 inches in the last 36 hours over the SE part of Harris County.

Massive record or near record flooding is occurring on nearly every watershed in Harris County.

Brays Bayou in Meyerland is nearing its 100-yr water surface elevation and many watersheds have reached or exceeded their 500-yr water surface elevation.

Many thousands of homes are currently flooded some with very deep inundation



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