August 2017: Hurricane Harvey Final Report Issued

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:04 pm

Everyone from Galveston to South Padre needs to be preparing Today for Harvey. Pay attention as djjordan and Srain indicated to any Evacuation orders... and ROUTES. IIRC the Rita evacuation was a Disaster.

I've lived in Texas from 25 years but am from North Carolina and have seen a few TCs. This one is serious business...and unfortunately steering currents are light once Harvey reaches shore. Prepare, expect the worst, and hope for the best.


https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL9_ww1_1280x720.jpg

Image

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092017_earliest_reasonable_toa_34+png/151548_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png
Last edited by DoctorMu on Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby djjordan » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:05 pm

Kayci, These are the only evacuation orders I have come across for Brazoria County as of now.


Brazoria County - Mandatory evacuation order issued for coastal communities along the Gulf side of the Intercoastal Waterway

Brazoria County - Voluntary evacuation order issued for low-lying coastal areas inland of Intercoastal Waterway.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:07 pm

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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby davidiowx » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:09 pm

I read somewhere Galveston has issued voluntary evacuations down there on some parts of the island. In particular the Bolivar area.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:11 pm

davidiowx wrote:I read somewhere Galveston has issued voluntary evacuations down there on some parts of the island. In particular the Bolivar area.



Really good idea.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby ticka1 » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:14 pm

TxDot opening evacuation lane on I-37 from Corpus to San Antonio.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby houstonia » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:15 pm

snowman65 wrote:
kayci wrote:My husband heard on the radio just now of mandatory evacuations for all coastal counties. Is this correct? I am in Brazoria county. We are totally hurricane (evacuation) prepared, but I haven't seen anything about Brazoria Co. and wondering if the radio station was exaggerating.
Please advise,
Thanx Yall for all you do!


IMO, If you are packed and ready, I would leave, beat the rush. I'm sure at some point you will be in the mandatory zone so might as well head out now if you have a place to go....that's what I would do, FWIW....best of luck to you!


The latest on EVACS from HCFCD met:
Mandatory Evacuation: Brazoria County (Gulf of Mexico to the Intracoastal Canal)
Mandatory Evacuation: all Calhoun County (effective immediately)
Mandatory Evacuation: Matagorda County (South of FM 521 and FM 2611 in Sargent), all areas S of FM 521 in Matagorda County, all areas south of Business 35 W of Palacios. All persons under age of 18 must leave the evacuation area
Port Aransas/Aransas Pass: Mandatory evacuation (effective immediately)
Mandatory Evacuation: all San Patricio County (effective at noon today)
Mandatory Evacuation: City of Ingleside (effective immediately)
Mandatory Evacuation: All Refugio County (effective immediately)
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby kayci » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:16 pm

djjordan wrote:Kayci, These are the only evacuation orders I have come across for Brazoria County as of now.


Brazoria County - Mandatory evacuation order issued for coastal communities along the Gulf side of the Intercoastal Waterway

Brazoria County - Voluntary evacuation order issued for low-lying coastal areas inland of Intercoastal Waterway.

Thank you DJ, I think we will head to our friend in Fredericksburg
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby javakah » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:42 pm

Can really see the development of the eye on GOES-16 Visible over the last few hours.
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Re: August 2017: Tracking Harvey/Coastal Impacts/Inland Floo

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Aug 24, 2017 3:46 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY HEADED TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND DEVASTATING FLOODING EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 93.9W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northeast of Matagorda to
Sargent Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Sargent Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to High Island Texas
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Mansfield Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of the Mouth of the Rio Grande to Boca de Catan Mexico

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

In addition, interests in southwestern Louisiana should continue to
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Harvey was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 93.9 West. Harvey is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest is expected this evening, and Harvey's forward speed is
forecast to slow down during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on
Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is
then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast
through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become
a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas
coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data released by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over
the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the
same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 7 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas
Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana, with
accumulations of up to 7 inches extending into other parts of Texas
and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause
devastating and life-threatening flooding.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent...6 to 12 ft
Sargent to Jamaica Beach...5 to 8 ft
Port Mansfield to N Entrance Padre Island Natl Seashore...5 to 7 ft
Jamaica Beach to High Island...2 to 4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the northeast of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning
area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions
expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area
Friday.

SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are likely to affect the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts by Friday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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