July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:07 pm

If you're keeping score it was AggieDome 1, Outflow boundary 0 last night. Storms literally died within 3.5 miles of our home.

There's a...

Image

beginning this weekend as the ridge and eastern trough slide west.




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1006 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Only a few tweaks to the forecast for the update...mainly to ac-
count for ongoing cloud cover trends (particularly at the coast).
Not expecting much by way of precipitation this afternoon given
the slightly lower PWs and stronger cap over the area. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017/

Under partly to mostly cloudy skies, early morning temperatures across
Southeast Texas are in the mid to upper 70s inland and in the lower
80s at the coast. These readings are actually a degree or two cooler
than they were at this time yesterday. Radar is quiet at the moment,
and the forecast has it staying that way today as we lose our recent
2+ precipitable water values with mid/upper level ridging beginning
to build into the area. Some moisture from a western Gulf of Mexico
mid/upper level could work its way into our area on Wednesday, so will
maintain low rain chances that are already in the forecast. Will keep
Thursday and Friday mostly dry, then bring some rain back into the
forecast beginning over the weekend and possibly continuing into the
start of next week as a western U.S. ridge and eastern U.S trough allows
a weak frontal boundary to slowly sag southward into the area. If this
boundary lingers in/around our area early next week, parts of Southeast
Texas could end up getting some decent rainfall coverage. If it manages
to move far enough southward, much of our area could end up drier.


Rising heat index values will be the weather story for the rest of the
week, and heat advisories might be needed as values are expected to
get closet to our 108 degree threshold. Even if no advisory is in effect,
precautions should always be taken at this time of the summer to keep
people and pets safe from the heat. 42
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:51 pm

Tuesday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level pattern is undergoing transition across the US with a building ridge of high pressure over the SW US and developing trough across the eastern US.

Overall day to day change in the actual weather across SE TX will be minimal with mostly dry conditions as the SW US ridge builds into Texas limiting rain chances. Moisture levels do look to increase on Wednesday, but the combination of building heights aloft and subsidence point to no more than 20% chances along the local seabreeze fronts. Heights increase slightly Thursday and Friday and expect afternoon high temperatures to reach the upper 90’s over the area. So far this summer Houston has “only” reached 97 degrees due to the rainfall, clouds, and green vegetation. Could make a run at 100 on Thursday and Friday, but still wet grounds over the area from the recent rainfall may prevent some areas from reaching into the low 100’s. Combination of afternoon high temperatures and dewpoints in the 70’s will result in heat index values of 104-108 across the region. Could see more widespread values near 108 on Thursday and Friday which would be enough to trigger a heat advisory. Remember that heat stress builds over time especially when overnight lows do not fall much below 80.


Interesting that models are forecasting a frontal boundary to sag southward and into the area this weekend due to the amplified upper air pattern with a ridge over the western US and trough in the east. Heights begin to fall by Saturday and moisture increases ahead of the southward moving boundary. This type of pattern in late July can certainly feature some strong to severe thunderstorms approaching the area during maximum heating from the NNE/NE. Will increase rain chances Saturday and Sunday to 30%. If some of the forecast models are correct the front may actually move off the coast and stall across the northern Gulf of Mexico which would bring a much drier air mass into the region. While the drier air may be nice, it is never a good idea to stall a frontal boundary across the Gulf of Mexico in early August.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Jul 26, 2017 5:38 am

Another hot and humid day across SE TX with a 20-30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temps approach the upper 90s with an increasing heat index Thursday and Friday which may result in Heat Advisories being issued for portions of SE TX.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:18 am

Roughly 50-60 days before that first "average" cold front enters SE Texas and starts us moving into Fall.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:24 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Roughly 50-60 days before that first "average" cold front enters SE Texas and starts us moving into Fall.



Unusual front headed backdoor towards HGX Sunday. NW flow aloft then next week. Hot-ish, but not the usual scorching, and lower DP? Potentially unsettled the following weekend. We'll see.

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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jul 26, 2017 3:47 pm

Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jul 26, 2017 7:19 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.


A core rain event.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby Karen » Thu Jul 27, 2017 2:44 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Some of you will remember this event back in 1979. It serves as a reminder that we don't necessarily need as full blown Hurricane to create havoc in SE Texas.

I DONT want to ever live that nightmare again as a teenager we woke up just before the water entered our home. We ended up with 3 feet of water in our house. To this day I cringe when we have heavy rain.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Jul 28, 2017 6:24 am

I was 11 at the time and estimate E Pearland had 22.5” during the same 24 hour period with Friendswood receiving around 30”. I remember waking up close to midnight and putting my foot on the floor to see if we had flood waters in the house. Thankfully we did not but it was a very close call. Cant imagine how bad it was in W League where I currently live during Claudette.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jul 28, 2017 9:44 am

Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Amplification of the upper level pattern over the US will send a “rare” early August “cool” front across the region this weekend.

A deepening eastern US trough and building western US ridge will produce NNW upper level flow across the southern plains helping to push a surface boundary with lower dewpoints into the area from the NNE late Saturday. Before this arrival of this front temperatures will warm to near 100 both today and Saturday as SSW winds at the surface and compressional heating ahead of the boundary work to rapidly heat the low level air mass. Front boundary with pooled 2.2-2.4 inch PWS air mass will arrive into deep E TX late Saturday afternoon where strong thunderstorms may develop along the boundary and move SSW/SW into the evening hours of Saturday evening. Exact timing of the boundary into SE TX late Saturday will likely play a large role in the formation of showers and thunderstorms with an earlier arrival yielding a better chance and a passage overnight into Sunday morning a lesser chance.

Front actually looks to clear the coast before stalling allowing a refreshing mid 60’s degree dewpoint air mass to spread into the region late Sunday into Monday. Will only knock about 5 degrees off the high temperatures for Sunday and Monday compared to Saturday, but the lower dewpoints and humidity should be noticeable.

Frontal boundary stalls across the northern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday-late Tuesday. Forecast models do not show any attempts at surface low pressure trying to form along this boundary which is always a concern with a decaying front over the Gulf of Mexico in August. Large upper trough from the NE US trailing back to TX by mid week helps to bring what looks to be a prolonged period of active weather to the region starting Wednesday. Gulf front washes out on Wednesday and surge of deep tropical air will quickly return with PWS rapidly rising toward 2.2 inches. Will bring back 40% rain chances on Wednesday and the end of next week into next weekend is looking wet with daily chances for thunderstorms.
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