July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: July 2017 - Shower/Storm Chances Continue

Postby unome » Sat Jul 22, 2017 6:21 pm

feels like the summers of old - can count on 1 hand the times we've had to water so far this season !

hope I don't jinx it...
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jul 23, 2017 9:23 am

It appears we have another day or two of shower and storm chances as the weakness along the Northern Gulf Coast and an Upper Low meanders Westbound with its near 2.2 inch PW’s exits the area. The Strong Ridge across the Plains and the SE United States builds into Texas putting an end to our rain chances throughout the work week. It appears we may end up with Heat Indices precariously close to Heat Advisory Criteria, so take that into consideration when working outdoors and stay hydrated with frequent breaks and check on those that may be without Air Conditioning and particularly check the back seat before exiting vehicles for children. We are seeing way too many useless deaths of children this year because people become so wrapped up in the distraction of daily life and forget about those children.

The overnight Ensemble Guidance does suggest a developing Eastern US trough may shift the Heat Ridge back West allowing for a frontal boundary to approach our Region next weekend and bring back shower and storm chances as we end July.

07232017 00Z Euro EPS 168 ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_us_8.png


Looking ahead to the Extended Range as August begins, we are seeing signs of a significant Hemispheric Pattern change as the Madden Julian Oscillation currently favoring the Western and Central Pacific has allowed a parade of Tropical Disturbances to march across the Pacific Ocean from Mexico to China. The MJO is suggesting a more favorable pattern will propagate Eastbound across the Pacific and enter the Western Atlantic Basin near the second week of August. There is also a Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave moving our way in tandem with the MJO pulse suggesting the Eastern Pacific Tropical activity may decrease in early August as the North Atlantic Basin becomes more favorable for Tropical Development.

07232017 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png

07232017 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png


As many of the reliable Tropical Experts have indicated, the ENSO conditions have switched from the early season indicators of a weak El Nino to that of more of a more Neutral Phase as water across the Pacific from South America have not warmed and that lack or warming Seas Surface Temperatures extends to the Central Pacific Ocean. While it is certainly too soon to know with any certainty what exactly lies ahead regarding the potential Tropical Development in our Basin, consensus continues to increase suggesting a more active Tropical Season lies ahead. It has been 11.7 years since a Major Hurricane made landfall along the United States Coast, which is likely a record length of time without a Major Hurricane impacting the US Coastline.

As the end of July nears, perhaps someone can start an August Topic as we transition quickly toward Peak Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic Basin… ;)

06272017 PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: July 2017 - Shower/Storm Chances Continue

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jul 23, 2017 1:58 pm

unome wrote:feels like the summers of old - can count on 1 hand the times we've had to water so far this season !

hope I don't jinx it...



:P Death Ridge on cue.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jul 23, 2017 3:07 pm

Srain: Correct. The models are have been suggesting since yesterday that the next chance of rain for the area is around the beginning of August. Everyone - Hang on 'til then.

Now the neighbors finally understand why I cut St. Augustine high in the summer!
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby brooksgarner » Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:04 am

4:03am 7/28/17 ... I expect this activity to stay NORTH of the Houston Metro area, but from the perspective of the KHOU-TV viewing area, this stuff has already worked into northern Polk County and San Jacinto Counties ... probably won't make it to much farther south. However... There remains a chance Houston metro could get a 'surprise' storm from this complex, should an outflow boundary push south or meso cold pool develop, but then again, I'd expect Liberty County as opposed to Harris County, based on radar trends @ 4am ... It's that time of year when it won't take much in a charged atmosphere
-Brooks


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0549

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

456 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017



AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA/SWRN MS



CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE



VALID 240855Z - 241400Z



SUMMARY...SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS

OF ERN TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT

CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO

SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.



DISCUSSION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY

ARCING ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN TX...WHICH HAS

BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER

HOUSTON...TRINITY AND ANGELINA COUNTIES WITH RADAR ESTIMATED

RAINFALL RATES SURPASSING 2 IN/HR AS OF 0840Z. OTHER SCATTERED

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ACROSS SWRN MS...IN THE VICINITY

OF A WEAK 700-500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THE ENTIRE REGION FROM EAST

TEXAS INTO SWRN MS IS CAUGHT IN A LARGE-SCALE COL IN THE MID-UPPER

FLOW ALLOWING FOR WEAK CELL MOTIONS. HOWEVER...VAD WIND PLOTS AT

KPOE AND KLCH CONFIRMED RECENT RAP FORECASTS OF RELATIVELY

STRONGER WLY 850 MB FLOW RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KT. GPS

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGED FROM 1.9 TO 2.2 INCHES FROM 06Z

OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...WHICH SHOULD HELP COMPENSATE FOR WEAK

CAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BASED ON

RECENT OUTPUT FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE.



THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO INCREASE FROM

PORTIONS OF EAST TX INTO CNTRL LA AND SWRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW

HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK UPPER FORCING. LITTLE CIN IN RAP

ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS MAY ALSO SUPPORT RAPID CELL DEVELOPMENT AFTER

SUNRISE. CELL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TOWARD THE

EAST...BUT STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW NOTED ABOVE SHOULD SUPPORT

TRAINING AND BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION LEADING TO VERY HEAVY

RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW AREAS OF FLASH

FLOODING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF COVERAGE

INCREASES OVER PORTIONS OF LA INTO MS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE

LOWERED...1.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS.



THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN A MAJORITY OF THE 00Z

CAM GUIDANCE ALONG WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND ESRL

EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IN THE HRRRS COULD BE TOO

LARGE BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. STILL...THE AREA IS WORTH

WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.



OTTO
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 24, 2017 8:22 am

Water Vapor Imagery shows a shortwave diving SE along The Red River just NW of Dallas/Fort Worth. That feature is beginning to fire of some showers and storms and may assist in developing additional showers and storms across the Region in the very deep moisture (2.25 inch PW's) in place across Metro Houston. We are already seeing an outflow boundary heading South from the Storm Complex to our North and NE.

Image
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:50 am

07242017 mcd0552.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0552
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1029 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX...CENTRAL LA...SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHERN
AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 241430Z - 241930Z

SUMMARY...LONG STRUNG OUT CONFLUENCE ZONE WITHIN UNSTABLE VERY
MOIST ENVIORMENT AND WEAK FLOW SUPPORT THREAT FOR CONTINUED FLASH
FLOODING RISK.

DISCUSSION...GOES-EAST WV LOOP SHOWS THE TRAILING EDGE OF A TROF
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION TOWARD A WEAK CLOSED
LOW ACROSS NE TX/N LA GIVEN THE WEAKENED FLOW. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...850-7H IS A WEAK CONFLUENT TROF FROM EASTERN TX TO THE W
FL PANHANDLE WITH A FEW WEAK INFLECTIONS ALONG IT SOME
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED (SUCH AS E TX). THIS CONFLUENCE/RETURN FLOW
FROM THE WESTERN GULF PROVIDES SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FLUX TO MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION AS WELL A
SUPPORT DOWNSTREAM/REACTIVATION ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUT FROM
ORIGINAL CONVECTION. MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG AND TPWS OVER 2" AND
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OVER 2.25" SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT BUT DEEP
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WITH RATES UP TO 2.5"/HR POSSIBLE. GIVEN WEAK
MID-LEVEL FLOW CELL MOTIONS HAVE BEEN NEAR ZERO AND PROPAGATION
OCCURS AS LOCALIZED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OCCUR. THIS
ALLOWS FOR TOTALS OF 2-4" IN SHORT-ORDER ALLOWING FOR FLASFH
FLOODING CONCERNS. HI-RES RAPIDLY REFRESHING GUIDANCE (HRRR/RAP)
SUGGEST THIS CONFLUENT FLOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

EASTERN TX...GOES-16 EXPERIMENTAL VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHALLOW
7H WAVE OVER NE TX DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE MCV NEAR W OF LFK/SW
OF OCH. THIS MAY SUPPORT A BINARY INTERACTION WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO KEEP THE MCV FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAINTAIN FORCING AND LOCALIZED
ADVECTION OF ADDITIONAL UNSTABLE/MST AIR TO LEAD TO CONTINUED
LIKELY FLASH FLOODING RISK. RECENT VIS TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT INTO CENTRAL LA.GIVEN MCV
STRENGTH...PROPAGATION VECTORS IN THIS AREA HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING ALONG THE CONFLUENCE LINE TO ALLOW FOR REPEATING
TRACKS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:17 am

068
FXUS64 KHGX 241139
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
A few items of note this morning as northern Texas convective
outflow has provided the initiation and focus for slow-moving
clustering storms north and east of the hubs. Anticipating that
this activity will only impact Huntsville as showers and storms
build back to the west over their air space...VCSH over the next
couple of hours with a possible addition of thunder through 15-16Z
as it continues to be monitored. The second mention will be of a
lower level jet stream hugging the coast through mid-day. Albeit
forecast to weaken...this jet could introduce periodic early day
MVFR ceilings but will most likely be noticed in higher turbulence
within the lower few thousand feet. Thus...early day attention
needs to be paid for the existence of lower level turbulence across
more southern region terminals. Drier air working its way in from
the southwest should preclude the mention of afternoon precipitation
and aid in scouring out lower level decks (just mid level ceilings).
A slight chance for a repeat of north(east)ern state storm outflow
reaching the northern hubs tomorrow morning. 31
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby Rip76 » Mon Jul 24, 2017 1:00 pm

Poof.

Must be that Saharan dust.
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Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:43 pm

Outflow has made it to Hearne.


Image

Will the Aggiedome relent before the sun sets?



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Another line of storms beginning to fill in just north of the CWFA
this afternoon...and is expected to move into our NW counties thru
the early evening hours. Brief heavy rain and gusty winds are pos-
sible with these storms before sunset.


The upper ridge of high pressure building into the region from the
west will help to keep POPS low and temperatures high across SE TX
tomorrow. Have kept the mention of isolated POPS in for Weds given
the persistence of models drawing a slug of slightly deeper moist-
ure into the area from the Gulf. Progged PWs up to 2.2" along with
daytime heating and the seabreeze should be the main catalysts for
storms. The strengthening ridge will lower POPS once again for Thu
and Fri...with the main forecast issue then becoming elevated heat
indicies approaching our criteria/threshold of 108.

Extended guidance still holding onto the idea of a front moving in
to the area from the NE this weekend. GFS remains the most aggres-
sive with this possibility, but the other models seem to be coming
around to this idea as well
. PWs are currently progged to pool at/
around 2.2-2.5" along and ahead of this boundary as it move across
the lower MS River Valley with the western extent of this activity
in SE TX. While there is not a lot of confidence with the scenario
given this time of year, long-range models have been consistent so
far. 41

&&
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