July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: July 2017 - Rain Chances Decreasing/Summer Heat Builds

Postby mckinne63 » Sun Jul 30, 2017 8:45 am

DoctorMu wrote:
MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Hopefully it's a cool September for some tailgatin' in CS!


Just hangin' on until football season:



Me too! Go Pack Go and Go Texans!
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Re: July 2017 - July 29, 1943 Remembering The Surpise Hurric

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:34 am

Electric Lizard wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:A line of storms from Huntsville to Liberty appears.


Unfortunately, it sure doesn't look like it'll reach as far west as the Brazos.



ENE winds this morning, but very disappointed at the lack of lower DPs so far. Lufkin has a DP of 63°F. We're at a wet bulb of 75°F. Huntsville at 70°F. So the gradient is there. No rain either. grrrrrrrrrr
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Re: July 2017 - July 29, 1943 Remembering The Surpise Hurric

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jul 30, 2017 4:08 pm

Drier air is slowly filtering in with NE advection. Dew points have dropped into the mid-60s in Huntsville and below 60°F towards Marshall and Texarkana.


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Re: July 2017 - July 29, 1943 Remembering The Surpise Hurric

Postby mckinne63 » Sun Jul 30, 2017 5:04 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Electric Lizard wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:A line of storms from Huntsville to Liberty appears.


Unfortunately, it sure doesn't look like it'll reach as far west as the Brazos.



ENE winds this morning, but very disappointed at the lack of lower DPs so far. Lufkin has a DP of 63°F. We're at a wet bulb of 75°F. Huntsville at 70°F. So the gradient is there. No rain either. grrrrrrrrrr


Not a drop here either and is still just plain hot, hot, hot! I thought it was supposed to be a bit cooler? It is summer in Texas so not expecting much, but thought humidity was supposed to go down. Just came in from outside, feel like I took a shower. :P
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Re: July 2017 - July 29, 1943 Remembering The Surpise Hurric

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sun Jul 30, 2017 10:33 pm

Sunday night is sooooooooo delightful - the only thing missing is a good football game!
Feels wonderful with the "cool" wind and low humidity by the bay!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 31, 2017 6:23 am

Tropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062017
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

This Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical
Storm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical
Storm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west-
central coast of Florida.

Doppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate
average velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation
center between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a
standard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent
surface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been
upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily. Little change in strength is
expected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow
weakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.

The initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the
previous forecast track or reasoning. Emily is expected to make
landfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning
area by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the
central Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central
Florida coast Tuesday morning.

The primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy
rainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next
couple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be
possible in the coastal waters within the warning area.

This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard
Intermediate Public advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1200Z 27.7N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 27.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 28.3N 80.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 29.8N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.6N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Attachments
07312017 TS Emily 800 AM EDT 120350_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

Postby BlueJay » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:41 am

The last morning in July 2017 was a lovely cool 71F for us which made our a.m. walk easy breezy. Now, if we just could get a bit of rain...
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Re: July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

Postby unome » Mon Jul 31, 2017 3:31 pm

browsing Eric Blake's Twitter feed, found this crazy good CIRA experimental GOES-16 link

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu

how far we have come !
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Re: July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:10 pm

BlueJay wrote:The last morning in July 2017 was a lovely cool 71F for us which made our a.m. walk easy breezy. Now, if we just could get a bit of rain...


Fingers crossed the forecasts hold.


Haha 95°F with a NE breeze and DP of 60°F now feels frigid after a brutal Saturday!
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Re: July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Jul 31, 2017 4:27 pm

unome wrote:browsing Eric Blake's Twitter feed, found this crazy good CIRA experimental GOES-16 link

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu

how far we have come !



Oh, wow!
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