July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

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July 2017 - TS Emily West of Tampa

Postby ticka1 » Fri Jun 23, 2017 4:10 pm

Starting topic for upcoming July weather!!!
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:17 pm

It looks like as of today we will have a Hot and Dry 4th of July Holiday Period. I see no weather worries for all the festivities. Stay Hydrated! Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100's!
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:57 pm

Halfway through 2017.
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby ticka1 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:10 am

looking at the next 10 days - hot and humid with no rain in forecast!
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:37 am

A very humid morning across the Upper TX Coast with only a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms before hot and dry weather arrives for the weekend through the 4th of July. The tropics remain very quiet for now.
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:02 am

The Hemispheric Pattern suggests subsidence will rule the sensible weather forecast throughout the 4th of July long Holiday Period.

We may see a slight increase in moisture late next week as a upper trough nears our Region, but that is too far into the future to know with any certainty.

I have been mentioning in our Hurricane Central section regarding a potential change around mid July as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) transitions from one of sinking air, therefore subsidence toward rising air and the possibility of enhancement or more favorable conditions for tropical showers and tropical thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific and eventually into the Western Atlantic Basin around mid July. There are indications that a rather impressive Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave arrives as well further indicating the potential of more favorable conditions for tropical development. We have plenty of time to watch these features, so no Tropical Mischief is on the Horizon at this time. We typically begin to see the potential for tropical development in slowly increase during the month of July into August before peaking around mid September.

I hope everyone has a great and safe 4th of July Holiday!
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06272017 PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jul 01, 2017 11:43 am

07012017 mcd1210.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 1210
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Sat Jul 01 2017

Areas affected...Eastern Texas...northern Louisiana...and southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011633Z - 011830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging wind gusts are possible as a linear
complex migrates slowly eastward through the afternoon. A weather
watch issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

DISCUSSION...A remnant convective complex from overnight activity
across west Texas has reintensified along/just east of the I-35
corridor in central/north Texas over the past half hour or so. This
reintensification is attributed to eastward propagation of the
complex into an increasingly uncapped, strongly unstable downstream
airmass, with MUCAPE values approaching 4000 J/kg. Furthermore,
propagation along an east-to-west oriented outflow
boundary/differential heating zone may be promoting further
organization of the convective cluster despite modest deep shear or
storm organization.

Models (including convection-allowing guidance) are not consistent
with regard to longevity of the complex. However, the presence of
ongoing propagation and an uncapped downstream airmass suggests that
storms should persist through the afternoon, with a slow eastward
progression across the discussion area over time. Sporadic damaging
wind gusts are possible with stronger cores along the leading edge
of the complex. A weather watch issuance is not anticipated for
this activity, although convective trends will be monitored.

..Cook/Grams.. 07/01/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:48 pm

srainhoutx wrote:It looks like as of today we will have a Hot and Dry 4th of July Holiday Period. I see no weather worries for all the festivities. Stay Hydrated! Heat indices will likely reach into the low 100's!


More heat as the ridge holds. Not much chance of rain for the foreseeable future. The ArkLaTex MVC is moving away - we're high and dry. At least the dew point as "plummeted" to a mere 72°, giving us heat indexes of 102° rather than 107°. Yesterday was a real roaster!
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Jul 01, 2017 7:26 pm

GFS has this as an Atlantic coast storm but :shock: at the potential strength of this TC in mid July off Florida.

Image

The site chopped off the end, but 958 mb pressure...

FWIW, both GFS and CMC have higher rain chances for us in another 7-8 days. Long way off for any confidence on any scenario.
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Re: July 2017 - 4th of July Holiday Outlook

Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Jul 02, 2017 11:14 am

DoctorMu wrote:GFS has this as an Atlantic coast storm but :shock: at the potential strength of this TC in mid July off Florida.

Image

The site chopped off the end, but 958 mb pressure...

FWIW, both GFS and CMC have higher rain chances for us in another 7-8 days. Long way off for any confidence on any scenario.


That is 14 days off. If other forecast models like EURO, Canadian, and Japanese were on board along with GFS, than we would have something. EURO and Canadian go up to 10 days.

We will have to see in the next few days.
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