June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby tireman4 » Thu Jun 29, 2017 7:46 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 290946
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
446 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Periods of showers and thunderstorms will likely continue along
the coast and over the Gulf waters for much of the morning.
Isolated pockets of heavy rain are possible this morning,
especially if these storms continue to train over the same areas.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible this
afternoon further inland, but the greatest potential will likely
be generally south of the Hwy 59 corridor. Right now, there is a
pretty tight PW gradient across the CWA, with values close to 2.0"
right at the coast and offshore tapering off to around 1.3" in
the College Station area. With southwest flow in place, this PW
gradient will likely remain in place for today and severely limit
PoP chances across the Brazos Valley. Scattered showers and storms
are forecast again on Friday, with the greatest chances over the
eastern portion of the area as an upper-level weakness pushes
further off to the east.

Ridging noses in beginning on Friday night and takes hold of the
forecast through the rest of the forecast period, leaving us with
very summer-like conditions through next week. Temperatures will
warm into the mid 90s during the afternoons, with heat indices
pushing into the mid 100s. Make sure any holiday plans include
plenty of water and a place to cool off.

11

&&

.MARINE...
Storms ongoing across the coastal waters this morning along the
remains of the boundary with it slowly drifting north into SETX.
Southwesterly along the boundary and moderate southerly flow to the
south of it should warrant SCEC conditions through at least late
morning. Expect storm coverage to diminish this morning with a lull
over the waters this afternoon with redevelopment (less so than with
ongoing coverage) this evening. The persistent southerly flow
becomes dominant as upper ridging builds over the western US and
pressures fall over the Plains. Periods of SCEC winds possible
through Saturday. Tide levels still elevated and don`t see much in
the way of improvement until Friday and that may only be slightly.
Will continue the Beach Hazard Statement for strong rip currents and
elevate tide levels through this afternoon but will likely need
extending.

45

&&

.AVIATION...
Not quite as messy as last night...main issue is possibly some
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible for an hour or two near sunrise across
the northern terminals but across the south is the threat of showers
and isolated thunderstorms. Gusty winds of 15 to 20 mph with storms
near the coast should gradually expand north and may reach HOU
before weakening. Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible for HOU southward
this morning then decreasing coverage this afternoon and VCSH will
likely the norm for HOU southward. Patchy MVFR ceilings after 06z
Friday for IAH/HOU northward. Quieter weather expected Friday
afternoon thanks to increased upper ridging influence.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 77 94 77 96 / 10 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 91 78 93 78 94 / 30 10 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 82 89 81 88 / 50 10 20 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...45
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby unome » Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:59 pm

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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:14 am

The first truly miserably hot day in CLL with a heat index of 105°and minimal cloud cover. Torrid humidity with a dew point of about 76° all day. Currently 77°strength sapping wet bulb temp.

It's not getting better anytime soon as the ridge builds should be windy tomorrow...not exactly a cooling breeze, though.

Just hanging on then until a tropical feature or football season appears, whichever comes first! :lol:
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby ticka1 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 5:09 am

next 10 days hot and humid with no rain in forecast! Hopefully this is short lived?
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Texaspirate11 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:38 am

This is Mr. Franklins last day at the NHC
He's done a fabulous job and I hope he enjoys his retirement

One of his last posts:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
days.

$$
Forecaster Franklin
NNNN
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby tireman4 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:43 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301146
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
646 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.AVIATION...
A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings will transition to VFR by 16-18Z
today with VFR conditions (SCT-BKN skies around FL035) expected
to prevail through the remainder of the TAF period. An elevated
surface pressure gradient ahead of a cold front moving down the
Southern Plains will result in southerly winds 10-15 knots today
with stronger gusts in the 20-25 knot range possible through
sunset. Deeper moisture remains draped along and south of the
Highway 59 corridor this morning and a few SHRA will be possible
near the Houston terminals, SGR, LBX, and GLS from late morning
through the afternoon.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Much quieter radar this morning with only a few sprinkles noted on
deep S-SSW low level flow. Gradient of moisture remain with areas
near CLL at 1.4" and close to the upper shear axis just off the
coast 1.9" PW per GOES-R. Warm start today with temperatures at 4
am running 3-7 degrees warmer and dewpoints 3-5 degrees higher.

Rain chances slim today with isolated showers or thunderstorms
along and south of the 59 corridor. Any rainfall accumulations
should be on the lighter side (<0.25") as temperatures climb into
the lower to mid 90s and combined with the elevated dewpoints it
is going to feel hot. Apparent temperature of 95+ should be in
place by 10 am and by noon 100-105 will be common across the area.
The heat index should peak around 105-107 today with abundant
afternoon sunshine and the only respite will be the southerly
winds of 10-15 mph. So if you are out and about - hydrate/take
breaks/get in the shade/duck into some air conditioning/wear
sunscreen.

The dry and hot weather will continue through the holiday weekend
and through the 4th of July for that matter as upper ridging
builds and 850 temperatures warm from today`s 19-20C to 22-23C by
Sunday morning. Strengthening of the upper ridging increasing the
subsidence inversion severely limiting rain chances over the
weekend and through the 4th. Heat index readings during the late
morning through the afternoon hours will frequently read 100-105
throughout this period. A weakening cold front dips south into the
NETX region Saturday and should stall with a very slim chance of
showers and thunderstorms moving off the boundary and nearing
Houston/Trinity counties in far northern areas of SETX during the
late afternoon hours. For now have pared back pops there to less
than 20 percent given the strength of the inversion over SETX but
will need to keep an eye on the progress of the front Saturday.

The 4th of July should be hot and humid with less than 10 percent
chance of rain. Overall good SETX weather for the 4th.

Wednesday rain chances `may` start to increase as death ridge
over the 4 corners increases in amplitude with a weakening upper
trough shearing out over KS/MO/IL as a slight increase in Gulf
moisture arrives in SETX along with a weak speed max over the Gulf
on the southern side of the upper shear axis. Will only carry
20-30 pops for Wednesday for this given the low confidence. Upper
ridging over the Western U.S. should continue to strengthen
Thu/Fri with a slight west or northwest shift which will get SETX
firmly under or south of the upper axis and will warrant low
chance pops for the southern areas along and south of the daily
seabreeze.
45

MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow is expected to persist through
tonight as a cold front moves into and washes out across North
Texas. Winds may briefly fall below 15 knots this afternoon but
small craft should exercise caution through tonight as winds
increase again overnight. Light to occasionally moderate onshore
flow is expected through the remainder of the weekend and into the
upcoming week. Despite this persistent onshore flow, expect high
tide levels to remain below 3 feet above MLLW as astronomical tides
decrease over the next few days. As a result, replacing the Beach
Hazard Statement with a Rip Current Statement for today as elevated
winds will allow for the threat for strong rip currents to persist.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 77 95 75 95 / 0 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 93 78 94 75 94 / 20 10 0 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 86 81 88 81 87 / 20 10 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby tireman4 » Fri Jun 30, 2017 8:46 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:This is Mr. Franklins last day at the NHC
He's done a fabulous job and I hope he enjoys his retirement

One of his last posts:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jun 30 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next five
days.

$$
Forecaster Franklin
NNNN



Funny item back in 2005 when he let is wit show...

.THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG RUN APPEARS LIMITED...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS SEEMINGLY IN THE
CYCLONE'S FUTURE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/di ... .008.shtml

And yet another gem...



OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE. WITH NO TIME TO
SPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 FROM TAFB.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2002/di ... s.078.html
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