June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:09 am

FLOOD ADVISORIES for FORT BEND & BRAZORIA:
CDT TUE JUN 27 2017 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Northeastern Wharton County in southeastern Texas... Southwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas... West central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas... * Until 245 PM CDT. * At 1152 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and additional thunderstorms are expected to move across the advisory area through early afternoon. This may result in additional urban and small stream flooding. * Some locations that will experience flooding include... Needville and Damon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:35 am

Yeah, I just noticed that trough. A lot of easterly flow here inland and scattered showers. Potent storms between Rosenburg and El Campo on Hwy 59.



I'll take it, overall. Drive safely.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:37 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...RESENT
National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Montgomery-Liberty-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Harris-Chambers-Wharton-
Fort Bend-Jackson-Matagorda-Brazoria-Galveston-
Including the cities of The Woodlands, Conroe, Willis, Liberty,
Cleveland, Dayton, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy,
Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Houston,
Pasadena, Katy, Tomball, Humble, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac,
El Campo, Wharton, Pierce, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Richmond,
Rosenberg, Edna, Bay City, Palacios, Pearland, Lake Jackson,
Alvin, Angleton, Freeport, League City, Texas City, Friendswood,
and Galveston
1234 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...Tropical Funnel Clouds Possible across of Parts of Southeast
Texas Today...

A moist, tropical environment is in place across Southeast Texas
today and is favorable for producing tropical funnel clouds. Most
of these funnel clouds will be short-lived and will not reach the
ground. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter should one
of these funnel clouds reach the ground.

$$

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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby BlueJay » Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:15 pm

YAY! We just enjoyed a brief rain shower!
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:52 pm

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

TXC201-272145-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0134.170627T1943Z-170627T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Harris TX-
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 27 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 445 PM CDT.

* At 242 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory area.
Up to two inches of rain have already fallen and additional
rainfall is occurring in the advisory area.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bellaire, West University Place, Hunters Creek Village, Piney Point
Village, Midtown Houston, Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby
Area, Second Ward, Neartown / Montrose, Greater Eastwood, southern
Memorial Park, Greater Third Ward, Fourth Ward, University Place,
Astrodome Area, Macgregor, Afton Oaks / River Oaks Area, Greater
Fifth Ward, Hedwig Village and Southside Place.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Jun 28, 2017 4:47 am

The unsettled tropical weather pattern continues for SE TX. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms offshore moving toward the coastal areas currently. Localized heavy rain will again be possible today especially along the coastal areas.
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:47 am

611
FXUS64 KHGX 281448
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
948 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Morning soundings and PW imagery supportive of a tight moisture
gradient along the upper TX coast. Have trimmed PoPs a little up
north, but kept chance to likely rain chances across coastal
counties, and perhaps a tier inland. That being said convective
temps will be met area-wide so still some chances of development
across sern TX- just higher near the Gulf. All in all, current
forecast in pretty good shape.

Evans

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

MARINE... Mid level circulation helping to focus scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this
morning. As the coastal trough meanders around and in from the
coast expect the storms to continue develop and spread inland.
During the afternoon hours may see a lull over the coastal waters
before it fires up again tonight. Winds this morning 15 to 20
knots and will keep a SCEC going through 7 am then let it come
down only to come back up in the eastern waters late this
afternoon as gradient tightens back up. Elevated tide levels will
continue with the persistent coastal troughing. Beach hazard
statement extended through 7 pm but will likely need extending
through tonight with increase in winds. Rip current stronger today
and probably begin to see some overwash on 87 near High Island
during the high tide this afternoon with these same conditions
tonight and Thursday. For what it is worth the ARW core and TT-WRF
both focus showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters this
afternoon/tonight with the potential for stronger winds. Will
need to keep an eye on future runs for some consistency and if so
may warrant bumping up winds 5-15 knots. 45

Aviation... Tough forecast today. VLIFR at UTS this morning with
BKN001 and showers streaming into the the coastal areas. How far
the showers make it inland this morning is a tough call. Expecting
as the nocturnal elevated winds relax may see a break focusing
showers closer to the coast then jumping inland with a little
heating. GFS soundings look to be too dry in the LL at 12z so have
trended toward NMM/NAM/HRRR solutions which show an increase in
coverage around 15z for SGR/LVJ/HOU/LBX areas then very slowly
expanding northward in the afternoon and clearing near the coast.
Overnight expect to see SHRA redevelop over the waters and spread
inland along the length of the coast around 06-08z. 45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 91 77 92 / 20 10 30 10 30
Houston (IAH) 87 75 89 78 90 / 50 30 60 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 83 79 87 82 88 / 70 50 70 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM CDT this afternoon
through Thursday morning for the following zones: Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby DoctorMu » Thu Jun 29, 2017 12:28 am

Models look pretty high and dry right now until the middle of July: Euro, GRS, CMC, ensembles. We'll see. :|
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Jun 29, 2017 4:39 am

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving inland across the coastal counties this morning with some isolated heavy rainfall. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop further inland with the heating of the day before weakening during the evening. SE TX dries out and temps rise this weekend through 4th of July.
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jun 29, 2017 5:57 am

Watch out along the Coastal tier of Counties for Flooding issues...

06292017 mcd0409.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0409
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
724 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL TX...SOUTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 291125Z - 291630Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH UPSTREAM/BACKBUILDING
PROPAGATION VECTORS AND AMPLE MOISTURE FOR RATES OVER 2.5"/HR POSE
LIKELY FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER NE COASTAL TX INTO SW/SOUTH CENTRAL
LA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...MID-LEVEL STACKED ELONGATED TROF LIES COINCIDENT WITH
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX COAST TOWARD APEX OF THE TROF/POSSIBLE
CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR 7-5H LOW JUST NORTH OF LCH. STRONG SLY
ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW (20+KTS) AIDED BY FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE HAS
SPARKED A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO COOL WITH
PURCOLLATING OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN EIR OF GOES-16 10.3 UM IR
WINDOW. VEERING TO SWLY FLOW AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER/WEAK INVERSION
NEAR 850MB PARALLEL TO THE TX COASTLINE SUPPORTS SOLID INFLOW/MUST
FLUX TO CELL AND WITH HIGHLY ELONGATED TROF THAT IS STACKED...CELL
MOTIONS ARE NEAR ZERO SUPPORTING C-VECTORS WITH SW PROPAGATION
FAIRLY PARALLEL TO THE CONVERGENCE BAND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
REPEAT/BACKBUILDING CYCLING CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SHORT BURSTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. AVAILABLE MOISTURE THROUGH THE UPDRAFT DEPTH
SUPPORTS TPWS AOA 2.0" AND WITH FLUX MAY REACH RATES OF 2.5"/HR OR
GREATER. THIS IS THE CASE OF STATIONARY CELL LOCATED CALCASIEU
PARISH WHICH WOULD HAVE THE LEAST STEERING FLOW GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
THE APEX/CENTER OF THE TROF. WITH THE BACKBUILDING AND SLIGHT
NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE VICINITY AND IT IS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE FOR EXTREME
RAINFALL TOTALS PARTICLULARLY OVER SW LA TO COMPILE WITH 4-6"
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SUPPORTED BY THE TRENDS IN THE
RAP/HRRR/HRRRV3. STILL THE THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINS EXTENDS FROM
THE CENTRAL TX COAST THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE TROF AND FLASH
FLOODING IS CONSIDERED LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

GALLINA

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