June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: June 2017:Weekend Rains/Stalled Front

Postby Katdaddy » Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:39 pm

Looking E toward Galveston Bay this evening. Picked up .40" in W League City today which the yard enjoyed.
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Re: June 2017:Weekend Rains/Stalled Front

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jun 25, 2017 7:53 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
ticka1 wrote:is that an Upper level low in the GOM? looks nosiy down there.


Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A sharp middle/upper level trough is positioned over the NW gulf
with the axis extending along 93W north of 24N. It is forecast
to move east at 15-20 kt across the northern half of the gulf.
Moderate southerly winds aloft are located on the east side of
the trough. A 1019 mb high is located over the northeast gulf
near 29N84W. A weak frontal boundary over the southern United
States drifted southward into the northern Gulf coast earlier
today with minimal convection either side of the front.



Storms forming along the trough. Shear is low, but not super favorable for development.



Image


Image




1.45 in total of rain for the afternoon. A big step in the right direction!
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Re: June 2017:Weekend Rains/Stalled Front

Postby Texaspirate11 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:45 am

I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:21 am

769
FXUS64 KHGX 261129
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.AVIATION...
Patches of low cigs should lift by mid morning.
Shower/thunderstorm activity will get going first near the coast
this morning before spreading inland this afternoon. Showers and
storms should be more diurnally driven today and therefore should
diminish soon after sunset this evening. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Slightly drier air has backdoored into northeast parts of the
region overnight with observed dewpoints currently in the mid to
upper 60s there. Closer to the coast, surface troffiness
continues and is providing a convergent zone for another round of
shra/tstms to develop. These will probably persist into the early
& mid morning hours then, like the past few days, eventually
transition inland later in the morning & afternoon with daytime
heating. Convective temps a bit higher, probably ~85-86F, so it
could take a little longer for inland expansion. Can`t rule out
some localized heavy downpours w/ PW`s near 2". Also could see
some gusty winds in the stronger cells given the profiles of some
of the fcst soundings.

Guidance doesn`t project the remnants of the disturbance now
situated across nw Tx to make its way into se Tx until late
tonight & Tue, but still worth keeping an eye on in case timing
and/or details change. Wx on Tues-Thurs doesn`t look a whole lot
different that the previous several days. Upper weakness should
linger across the area along with respectable amounts of moisture
to work with. We should start seeing a bit less overall precip
coverage going into the weekend as mid/upper ridging builds back
into the area. 47

MARINE...
Little change to overall marine forecast, with periods of showers
and thunderstorms possible across the coastal waters through the
upcoming week. Light east to southeast flow is expected until mid
week, when winds and therefore seas increase again in response to a
developing surface low over the lee of the Rockies. Caution or
advisory flags may be required for this increase in winds/seas as
early as Wednesday.

Continued east to southeast flow this week will promote tide levels
around 1-1.5 feet above normal and strong rip currents. However,
tide levels should remain below critical thresholds for coastal
flooding issues. 11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 72 89 72 91 / 40 30 50 20 40
Houston (IAH) 88 73 88 73 89 / 50 30 50 20 40
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 86 79 87 / 60 50 50 50 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...47
Aviation/Marine...11
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Re: June 2017:Weekend Rains/Stalled Front

Postby BlueJay » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:40 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....



Sigh. Me too.
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Re: June 2017:Weekend Rains/Stalled Front

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Jun 26, 2017 9:30 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:I must be living in an alternative reality, as I have received, Since TS CINDY a spit and holler
and a couple of thunder claps. That's it.

Still waiting....


Cindy just blew me a kiss and gave us nothing.

Remnants of Bret were more generous.

Location IS everything. :mrgreen:
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby CrashTestDummy » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:15 am

Indeed. We got nearly 4" last night.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:46 am

EUREKA! FINALLY got an amazing storm - 3 inches
and the most amazing lightning over the water..
We deserved it LOL - been waiting soooooo long.
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 7:48 am

Today's Disco HGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
429 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the coastal
areas and Gulf waters throughout this morning before spreading
inland this afternoon. Lower PWs (1.6-1.7) over the NE zones may
be a limiting factor for shower/tstorm development across that
area. Inland convection should diminish heading into this
evening/tonight, with the focus shifting to offshore once again
overnight tonight. The upper-level weakness currently over Texas
will gradually shift towards the N Gulf throughout the week this
week, allowing a similar diurnal pattern of showers and storms
over the waters overnight and inland during the day to persist
through Friday. By that time, the upper-level weakness will have
pushed off further into the Gulf with upper ridging settling in
over Texas in it`s wake. This ridging will pretty much put an end
to rain chances this weekend and into early next week with hotter
and drier conditions settling over the region.

High temperatures and therefore heat index values will be on the
rise this week, reaching the low/mid 90s (H.I. 98-105) by this
weekend and lingering through early next week. Although that seems
pretty warm, it`s actually only a smidge above normal for this
time of year. 11

&&

.MARINE...
ESE flow this morning looks to continue though may back slightly
going into the late morning hours. Upper troughing with mid level
circulation centered near San Antonio should drift west with low
level troughing to continue over the Upper Texas Coastal Waters and
coastal areas. Combination of the persistent upper support today and
low level convergence should maintain the presence of showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters. High PW air and the above
will also increase the heavy rainfall potential which could lower
visibility over the coastal waters at times to 1 mile or less. Can`t
rule out a waterspout either this morning but not a very favorable
profile. Expect a slight lull to develop late afternoon over the
waters but then redevelop again tonight. Winds of 8-14 knots should
be dominate through Wednesday evening then increase to around 15 and
into the 15-20 knot range may need SCEC flags Thursday early .
morning and again Thursday night.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and a few thunderstorms near GLS-LBX-PSX early this morning
with VFR conditions elsewhere. Expect some patchy MVFR CIGS/VSBY
around CXO and possibly even IAH for a few hours between 09-13z
before CU begins to develop. Daytime heating and the very moist
airmass will likely lead to a proliferation of SHRA/TSRA across the
southern portions of SETX and will probably be adding TEMPOs to
IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX for SHRA/TSRA between 16-23z...and VCSH into the mid
evening hours though may go longer again tonight as it did earlier
this morning.
45

&&
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Re: June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:04 am

UPDATE HGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1024 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Speed convergence courtesy of a coastal trough stretching from
near Brownsville along the Texas coast towards Galveston is
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along
the coast this morning, as well as elevated easterly flow across
the coastal waters. Main updates to the ongoing forecast were to
retrend PoPs based on radar and latest short term guidance trends,
with coastal activity spreading inland with heating by this
afternoon. Convective temperatures appear to be a few degrees
lower than yesterday (in the low to mid 80s) and inland onset is
expected to occur a few hours earlier today. Similar to the past
few days though, storm motions 5-10 MPH and precipitable water
values in excess of 1.8-2 inches across the southern two-thirds of
the forecast area will result in the threat for locally heavy
rain... especially for any storms that become anchored to outflow
boundaries from previous convection.

Also updated the marine forecast to account for the increasing
easterly flow (10-20 knots) in response to the coastal trough. Not
only will this promote an increased risk for rip currents along
Gulf-facing beaches, but may result in wave run-up along the
dunes or Highway 87 on Bolivar Peninsula at high tide late
tonight. Tide levels reached around 3.5 feet above MLLW last night
and similar levels are expected again tonight. As a result, have
issued a Beach Hazards Statement through tonight to cover both of
these hazards.

Will be closely evaluating the evolution of the coastal trough
tonight as preliminary 12Z guidance is showing a signal that the
trough axis may extend far enough into the coastal counties to
keep higher rain chances going into the overnight hours...
prolonging the threat for at least locally heavy rain.
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