June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

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June 2017: Typical Summertime WX To End Month

Postby djjordan » Sat May 27, 2017 3:28 pm

Been a long time since I started a thread. Been lurking on the board for awhile now but been too busy to post much. Interesting to see what this years Hurricane season has in store. Any thoughts?
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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby Ounce » Sat May 27, 2017 9:42 pm

I think we'll be flood-free for the rest of the year and I look forward to seeing how the GOES16 changes things for hurricane season.
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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby Katdaddy » Sun May 28, 2017 9:07 am

Kudos djjordan for starting the June 2017 thread.

An outflow boundary is slowly pushing SW into SE TX from a storm complex well to the NE in AR, N LA, and W MS. This boundary may interact with the sea breeze this afternoon so we shall see. Only low rain chances currently for this afternoon. By late this evening into the overnight period; Strong to severe storms will be possible across inland areas as the weak front slides toward the coast. As we begin an active weather week; we will be watching the models to see if the tropics still want to add to the fun next weekend.
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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby srainhoutx » Sun May 28, 2017 12:45 pm

Midday update from Jeff regarding the NW Gulf possible mischief:

Potential for some sort of weak tropical system or possible hybrid system to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico toward next weekend.

Global forecast models have been hinting off and on over the last couple of days that an area of low pressure may attempt to close off across the western Gulf of Mexico at some point between 6-1 and 6-5. Overnight global runs have come into better agreement that surface low pressure may in fact form in this region as energy form the eastern Pacific is brought northward into the Bay of Campeche and a trough axis resides along the TX coast. It would appear that energy from the eastern Pacific begins to interact with the coastal trough across the lower TX coast by late this week helping to lower surface pressures. The ECMWF develops a surface low and deepens it to nearly 1000mb while tracking it NE/ENE from off the S TX coast toward southern Louisiana. The CMC develops two separate lows….one along the coastal trough which moves NNW into the middle TX coast around June 1 and then a second off the lower TX coast similar to the ECMWF model. The GFS produces no closed system over the western Gulf.

Sea surface temperatures are generally warm enough to support tropical cyclone formation and upper level winds may be generally favorable as well if the surface low actually forms near the coastal trough axis. This type of setup in the past have produced messy looking tropical systems…but they can be capable of extremely large rainfall amounts.

There is already a complicated forecast for much of this week into next weekend and any such development of any tropical feature in the western Gulf of Mexico would only add further complications.


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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 29, 2017 8:45 am

Starting to see the potential of a Coastal trough/weak surface low organizing later this week along the Texas Coast and slowly meandering NE into SW Louisiana this late this weekend. The 00Z ECMWF is back with this feature and it appears to originate in the SW Gulf/Bay of Campeche and combine with a surge of deep tropical moisture as well a potential of some sort of Mesoscale Convective Vort near Brownsville. The Canadian model has also suggested the potential of such a feature, while the GFS only shows a surge of deep tropical moisture without any surface reflection.

It also raises an eyebrow when we have a stalled boundary in late May/Early June draped across the Texas Coast with a surge of tropical moisture nearing our backyard. We will need to monitor trends over the next several days rather carefully. Regardless, this situation could lend to the potential of a prolonged heavy rainfall event, particularly along our Coastal Counties during the nighttime and possibly moving inland during the daytime with some heating of the day.

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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon May 29, 2017 10:10 am

A surface low over the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche can lead to tropical development if conditions are right. In June, most tropical cyclones form in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, if a cold front passes and goes over Gulf of Mexico, thunderstorms can form, in which a low pressure system forms and becomes tropical if conditions are right.

Many forecast models do not handle warm core low pressure rain events as there can be core rains. Core rains can dump extremely heavy rain at night in amounts of over 20 inches. Examples of core rains are September 1921 Flood, Claudette, and Allison.

Core Rain Events
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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 29, 2017 11:46 am

Midday Update from Jeff regarding the rest of the week and the potential for some form of tropical mischief spinning up along the Texas Coast later this week into early next week:

Highly active pattern in place for at least the next week…maybe longer.

Overnight storm complex has moved into the NW Gulf of Mexico where an intense meso low has formed SSW of Matagorda Bay. Gradient wind event across the coastal waters has prompted a short fused Gale Warning with frequent gusts of 40-50mph. These strong ESE to SE winds have resulted in a rapid onset coastal flooding event where tides have quickly risen this morning to over 3.0 ft above normal resulting in some minor coastal flooding especially around Matagorda Bay.

Air mass has been worked over by the overnight storm complex, but actual surface cool front remains stalled well north of SE TX from around Fort Polk to NW of Austin and then SW into SW TX. Upper level cirrus canopy from the Gulf complex is starting to thin allowing some surface heating and thunderstorms have developed recently along the stalled boundary to our north. Additionally, there are numerous outflow boundaries across the region and with enough heating any one of these boundaries could fire off storms. Air mass remains moist, but not nearly as unstable as yesterday so the main threat for any storms that develop will be heavy rainfall with any severe threats a distant second.

Forecast for the next several days will be driven on the meso scale as short waves lined up well into the northern Pacific translate through the long wave trough over the southern plains. Each wave will likely produce a round of thunderstorms capable of heavy rainfall. Additionally, a coastal trough may attempt to form by the middle of the week along the lower and middle TX coast which would encourage speed convergence and numerous coastal thunderstorms…especially in the early morning hours. The air mass will remain moist with PWS of 1.6-1.9 inches into next weekend so heavy rainfall will continue to be the main threats, but there is no well defined boundary to help focus sustained rainfall accept for any coastal trough that may form or outflow boundaries which will be meandering across the region.

Will broadbrush 50% rain chances each day, but some periods will have higher chances as well defined short waves lift across the region helping to spark convection and those periods will be resolved about 24 hours prior to their arrival.

Weekend/Early Next Week:
Global models…most notably the ECMWF…continue to suggest some sort of closed surface circulation attempting to develop along the TX coast possibly from energy moving northward from the eastern Pacific and then interacting with the western Gulf coastal trough. Additionally, a surge of deep tropical moisture will be arriving from the Caribbean into the western Gulf around the same time. The ECMWF develops a 1005mb low off the lower TX coast and slowly brings it NNE/NE toward SE TX/SW LA by early next week. There is some support from the CMC showing a low in the same region during the same time, while the GFS continues to show little to no surface feature. For now will lean toward more of a coastal trough, but will not discount the potential for a surface low to form somewhere along the TX coast this weekend. Forecasts will be strongly tied to if and where any such low would develop with respect to winds, seas, and rainfall potential. It is interesting to note that similar patterns in the past during the early part of June have produce weak tropical systems…most notably TS Allison (1989), TS Allison (2001), and TS Arlene (1993).
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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 30, 2017 12:05 pm

The 12Z GFS suggests 91 E in the Eastern Pacific will make landfall near Acapulco on Friday spreading very high PW's across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche and the Western Gulf. There appears to be a very weak surface reflect S of Galveston later on Friday, but wind shear looks very hostile for any organization. That said, bands of rain showers and possibly a few squalls may attempt to push inland across the Upper Texas and Louisiana Coast during the Friday into Sunday timeframe.
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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 31, 2017 7:35 am

It looks like a Tropical Cyclone is forming close to the Pacific Coast of Mexico not too far away from Acapulco. Notice that showers and storms are festering in the Bay of Campeche as Pacific moisture streams across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec along with some embedded mid and upper level energy associated with the EPAC Cyclone. Will need to monitor the trends as a vigorous couple of short waves head our way tomorrow and into the weekend.

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Re: June 2017: Hurricane Season Begins!!!

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 31, 2017 7:49 am

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Meso scale influences playing havoc with the forecasts.

Surface low that formed over the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday moved into SC LA yesterday. This feature has helped to keep NE low level winds in place across the region and limited overall return of moisture behind the storms of Monday morning. Surface troughing feature extending WSW from the surface low across the NW Gulf has been slow to wash out keeping the deep tropical moisture located about 200 miles south of the upper TX coast. Satellite data show extensive moisture plume across the southern and western Gulf of Mexico extending southward to the tropical system attempting to develop along the southern Mexican coast. PWS of 1.9-2.2 inches are common within the moisture plume and as the coastal trough breaks down today, we will begin to see this moisture migrate northward.

Additionally, a strong short wave currently over MX will eject across TX this afternoon and tonight and some of the latest guidance places a 60kt speed max across the area toward Thursday morning. Not seeing any surface boundary to help focus convection, but expect favorable lift and incoming moisture to set off showers and thunderstorms tonight into Thursday. Could see a few showers or storms this afternoon with heating, but bigger event will be late tonight into Thursday.

Overall expecting rainfall amounts of .5-1.5 inches with isolated higher totals. Analog products not hitting on high totals, but anytime you have PWS over 2.0 inches you have to keep an eye on things.

Friday should see a break before a stronger system arrives from the west over the weekend. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday with additional heavy rainfall possible. GFS and ECMWF remain at odds on when exactly a cool front may attempt to drop into the region…but based on the last front which never really made it and the time of year I have doubts if the front will ever clear the coast.

Will need to continue to keep an eye across the western Gulf of Mexico for the next week to 10 days with lots of convection expected in a very moist air mass. Global models have generally backed away from any surface low formation, but pattern does favor some potential with eastern Pacific energy crossing over and moisture surges from the Caribbean Sea.
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