May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 29, 2017 8:24 am

I just emptied 1.40 inches of overnight rainfall out of my gauge. The Texas Tech 3Km WRF is suggesting the complex of storms near Corpus will begin growing upscale and pushing inland with some embedded heavier showers and storms early this afternoon and organize into line of storms across portions of the Hill Country into College Station and on East. Another MCS looks to roll out of Mexico into S Central Texas overnight and push generally East into our Region before some drying occurs later on Tuesday into early Wednesday. In the June Topic I have mentioned the ECMWF solution overnight and the potential for additional heavier rainfall later this week into the weekend.

05292017 06Z TT WRF 10 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f10.gif

05292017 06Z TT WRF 11 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f11.gif

05292017 06Z TT WRF 12 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f12.gif

05292017 06Z TT WRF 13 dom_2km_sfc_dbz_f13.gif
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 29, 2017 8:48 am

Update from Jeff regarding the Coastal Flooding potential:

A large thunderstorm complex with intense meso low formation over the NW Gulf of Mexico is resulting in strong onshore winds across the coastal waters with several hours of winds gusting over 40mph. This is resulting in a very rapid rise in coastal tides to as much as 3.5-4.0 ft above normal levels.

A coastal flood advisory is in effect until early this afternoon for Chambers, Galveston, Brazoria, and Matagorda Counties and a coastal flood warning is in effect for Calhoun County where flooding on the west side of Matagorda Bay is currently in progress. As the meso low begins to weaken and shift NE along the coast today this should help to weaken onshore winds and gradually reduce the coastal flooding in progress by mid afternoon. Until that time water levels will likely reach dune bases along the Gulf beaches and may overwash portions of Bolivar and the west end of Galveston Island.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 30, 2017 6:33 am

A bit drier weather today into early tomorrow as a Coastal trough S of Louisiana (remnants of yesterday morning's MCV that exited into the NW Gulf near Corpus) moves on East. Upstream near the Baja Peninsula, the next upper air disturbance is heading our way and should see a return of scattered showers and storms tomorrow afternoon into Thursday. Further upstream about a 1000 miles West of Northern California, another upper air feature is heading East in the zonal flow. We will tough more on that potential rain maker in the June Topic as well as some increase in deep tropical moisture surging our way from the NW Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific where 91E is festering South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and may have a chance to spread additional tropical moisture our way into the weekend.

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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby tireman4 » Tue May 30, 2017 7:33 am

874
FXUS64 KHGX 301126
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.AVIATION...
A weak coastal trough over the Gulf is progged to weaken this
morning with NE winds becoming ESE by afternoon. Winds should
remain light as the gradient remains weak today. Showers have
arrived at the coast and some expansion inland is expected this
morning. Convective temps are in the lower 80s so a little
heating should get things started. Fcst soundings differ with
regard to cloud cover, cigs and rain chances with the NAM looking
more aggressive. A weak disturbance early Wednesday morning could
bring more shra/tsra to coastal areas prior to 12z. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT Tue May 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Marine observations shows a coastal trough axis extending from
near Buoy 42035 south-southwest towards Buoy 42019. Regional radar
mosaic has shown associated shower and thunderstorm activity
spreading into coastal Louisiana for much of the night, but
a few of these showers have been able to creep into the eastern
waters early this morning. As this trough continues to lift
towards the northeast through the day, expect to see showers (and
possibly a few thunderstorms) push inland into Southeast Texas in
response. Based on the anticipated trajectory of the coastal
trough and CIRA layer precipitable water imagery showing a plume
of PWATs in the 1.6-1.9 range nosing east of the Sabine Pass,
anticipate highest rain chances to materialize east of Interstate
45 today (30-40 PoPs). Will have to keep an eye on the
southeastern counties in case the trajectory of the coastal low
results in rainfall focusing across these areas possibly resulting
in an isolated minor flood threat.

Drier conditions to the west of Interstate 45 (CIRA PWATs 1-1.2
inches this morning) should limit overall coverage but cannot
rule out an isolated shower or storm as convective temperatures in
the low to mid 80s are reached this afternoon, especially along
an increasingly diffuse frontal boundary stretching from near
Austin to Hearne to Texarkana. Otherwise, patchy fog early this
morning outside of the Houston metro is expected to lift by mid-
morning with highs in the mid to upper 80s today and partly cloudy
skies.

Generally dry conditions are expected tonight as the coastal
trough lifts inland, but deeper Gulf moisture (now located near
Brownsville on aforementioned CIRA imagery) is expected to surge
northward in its wake. This will result in isolated showers and
thunderstorms returning to the coastal waters by early Wednesday
morning with this moisture pushing inland during the day. Better
moisture tomorrow (PWATs rising back into the 1.6-1.9 range
areawide) should allow for daytime heating to produce an least
scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage inland as highs rise
into the mid 80s, with stronger cells capable of heavier
downpours and possibly some gusty winds as forecast soundings show
a bit of an inverted-V signature/dry subcloud layer. Storms will
be moving, but with mean winds only around 10-15 MPH storm motions
may be slow enough to contribute to a localized minor flood
threat. Activity should diminish with loss of heating tomorrow
evening, but early morning water vapor imagery shows a shortwave
trough near Baja California that will continue to translate
eastward tonight and Wednesday and approach the region Wednesday
night.

The approaching shortwave trough will result in rain chances
increasing from west to east across the region Wednesday night
into Thursday as the right rear quadrant of an associated 70 knot
upper level jet moves across the region. Forecast soundings show
moisture continuing to increase during this time as a weak 20 knot
low level jet sets up, allowing precipitable water values to
exceed 1.8 inches. This should result in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing across the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. As noted in the previous forecast, no
significant surface boundary or focusing feature appears to be
present as today`s remnant frontal boundary should have modified
considerably or washed out by this time. However, convection
during the day Wednesday may leave smaller outflow boundaries that
could provide a focus for development. Rain chances are expected
to taper off Thursday night behind the departing shortwave trough,
before daytime heating again on Friday results in scattered
showers and thunderstorms again. Highs through the end of the week
are forecast to remain in the low to mid 80s.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to drop down the California
coast and reach Texas by Saturday, with increasing lift ahead of
this feature again resulting is scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. Medium range guidance is
somewhat inconsistent on the timing of this shortwave, however,
and rain chances may linger into the beginning of next week before
it clears the region.

Huffman

MARINE...
A coastal trough over the western Gulf has tightened the gradient
and wind speeds have increased. A SCEC is in effect through the
early morning. The trough is expected to weaken and wind speeds
should decrease by late morning. Onshore winds will develop as high
pressure remains over the eastern Gulf and low pressure persists
over the Rockies. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will
prevail through the end of the week. The flow will increase toward
the weekend as a deepening area of low pressure over SE CO moves
across the southern plains. Showers/storms will be possible over the
Gulf waters through the week and mariners should prepare for some
variable/gusty winds with the stronger storms. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 68 86 70 83 / 20 10 40 40 60
Houston (IAH) 85 70 86 72 84 / 30 10 40 40 60
Galveston (GLS) 83 77 84 76 83 / 40 20 20 40 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...43
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Tue May 30, 2017 8:56 am

Glad areas south got a soaking. This weekend was largely a bust in the CLL area. Hoping for precip during the week...a bit wary though.

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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby GBinGrimes » Tue May 30, 2017 10:15 am

Wife and I were sitting out on porch Sunday evening watching a fantastic lightning show meandering in from the NNW and waiting for what was sure to be a good soaking. Kept watching the radar on phone and sure enough, the line kinda danced a jig in portions of Brazos, Robertson, Washington and Grimes counties and then reformed in earnest just south of 105. Weather is as amazing as it is frustrating.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 30, 2017 10:28 am

HGX Radar has been repaired and is up and running!
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby jasons » Tue May 30, 2017 10:49 am

Good news on the radar! I've been watching the building convective complex west of San Antonio. It could push an outflow eastward across SE Texas later today/this evening. That may the boundary we need to set off some storms.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby jasons » Tue May 30, 2017 3:32 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
353 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Position of the coastal trof hasn`t really moved all that much
today. May see a few isolated cells prior to sunset, but should
see a quiet overnight period. The cluster of storms moving sse
across cntl Tx should remain west of the region, but`ll send some
debris overhead later this evening.

The coastal trof may edge a bit closer to the coast toward
morning, but will be in the process of washing out throughout the
day. Expect some iso/sct precip to develop across inland areas
with daytime heating.

Low levels of the atmos will moisten late Wed into Thurs ahead of
an approaching upper level disturbance forecast to move across
the area from the wsw. Increasing precip coverage can be expected
late Wed night and thru the day Thurs as this occurs. Most of se
Tx still appears looks to be positioned in a favorable jet position
for upper diffluence during the late night and early morning hours
so we`ll need to keep an eye out for some efficient rainfall. But,
unless a meso boundary emerges, we`ll be lacking a surface focus
many times needed to produce widespread heavy rain/ff issues.

Scattered, mainly diurnal precip can be anticipated thru the
weekend. We`ll be keeping an eye on deep moisture currently
situated on the southern Pacific coast of Mexico. Guidance
suggests this gets caught up in a southerly fetch into the the
western Gulf of Mexico ahead of a slow moving upper trof/weakness
this weekend into early next week. Whether the deepest moisture
reaches the Tx coast or remains further east is unclear at this
point.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Katdaddy » Wed May 31, 2017 4:34 am

The threat of scattered thunderstorms will continue into the weekend:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
414 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-010915-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
414 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. Stronger
activity may be capable of brief heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day. Stronger activity may be capable of brief heavy
downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.
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