May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby don » Sun May 28, 2017 11:27 pm

Raining pretty heavy here in the Heights, im actually surprised the line of storms didn't fizzle out before they got into the city. lol
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby houstonia » Sun May 28, 2017 11:36 pm

The blob over southwest Houston seems to be building right on top of us...
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Rip76 » Sun May 28, 2017 11:44 pm

Starting to hit Pearland now.
Gusty winds, sporadic rain.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Mon May 29, 2017 12:08 am

Rip76 wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:These mesos went Rorschach on us. Thought we going to get clobbered. Maybe 0.15 in.

The former outflow boundary moving through Harris Co. should provide some soaking. If the MSC NW of Corpus holds together it may provide action towards Galveston.



Any Pearland action?


Outflow boundaries have reached Pearland by this hour. Hope you get some needed rain.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Mon May 29, 2017 12:49 am

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
145 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

TXZ226-236-237-290730-
Brazoria TX-Wharton TX-Matagorda TX-
145 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 145 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
West Columbia, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Jackson, Bay City, Freeport, Clute, West Columbia, Sweeny,
Surfside Beach, Richwood, Brazoria, Jones Creek, Oyster Creek,
Bailey's Prairie, Sargent, Wild Peach Village, Van Vleck, Markham,
Wadsworth and Damon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby unome » Mon May 29, 2017 6:15 am

hope everyone made it through the storm safely - air smells so clean here this morning, love it !

NWS EDD: https://go.usa.gov/xNXeK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-301200-
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Houston-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-Matagorda-
Montgomery-Polk-San Jacinto-Trinity-Walker-Waller-Washington-
Wharton-
700 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Windy conditions can be expected along the immediate coast this
morning, with hazardous driving conditions possible on elevated or
east to west oriented roadways.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today. This activity may be capable of producing gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday through Sunday. This activity may be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-301200-
Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM-
Galveston Bay-Matagorda Bay-
Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM-
700 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to moderate winds are expected across the waters through
mid to late morning and a Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf
waters, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for the bays.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
today. Some of these may be capable of producing locally higher
winds and waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday through Sunday. Some of these may be capable of producing
locally higher winds and waves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

$$


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
657 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Still some stratiform rain and embedded showers and thunderstorms
going on west southwest of SGR/LBX this morning likely in response
to the MCS moving east through the northwest Gulf. Ceilings of 200
ft briefly possible around CLL/UTS/CXO otherwise mainly VFR.
Showers should pop up late this morning around the area and
transition over to TSRA around noon or a little later. Low
confidence on where specifically so will VCSH/VCTS it for now.

Second issue is gradient wind event near the coast with meso-high
over the far coastal waters that should subside in the next couple
of hours.
45
&&

.MARINE...
Another update to hoist Gale Warning for the Gulf Waters and SCA
for bays as gradient wind event roars away...by 15z expect winds
to have dropped off dramatically from the current gusts of 35-45
knots.
45


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

MARINE...
Meso-high driving gradient winds across the coastal waters and
into the coast and bays. Winds of 20-30kts gusts to 40 for the
next few hours. Winds should weaken as storms well offshore
weaken. Will have to watch comma head rotating in from the west
and could clip or aggravate the already strong winds as it pushes
east. Have hoisted SCA for all waters through 10 am and special
marine warnings through 7 am.
45

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Light to moderate rainfall lingers across Southeast Texas this
morning behind an outflow boundary that has since pushed off the
Upper Texas Coast. Regional radar mosiac shows most of the
thunderstorm activity this morning relegated to the western Gulf
of Mexico, with an expansive thunderstorm complex stretching from
Corpus Christi to Harlingen slowly pushing to the east.
Extrapolation of current storm movement places this complex into
the western waters sometime between 5 and 7 AM CDT. At least
through the morning hours, this complex will be the primary driver
for rain chances for the region as its parent shortwave trough
lifts towards the region, pushing the complex and associated
surface low/mesoscale convective vortex into it. What remains to
be seen at this time is how far north rain chances will extend
inland this morning as the outflow approaching the South Texas
thunderstorm complex may result in enough low level convergence
off the coast to block inflow and cut off rain chances farther
inland. With mid and upper level steering flow from the southwest
concerned that there may be some expansion or movement to the
northeast into the Matagorda Bay area and have maintained 60-70
PoPs for this morning as a result. However, if this complex
appears to remain offshore an update may be needed later this
morning to lower rain chances.

With most activity along the coast and across the waters early this
morning, expect to see at least a brief break in rain chances but
daytime heating will result in scattered shower and thunderstorm
development across the region mid to late morning and into the
afternoon. Expect greatest coverage to occur along several of the
remnant boundaries draped across the region. Surface analysis
reveals that yesterday's cold front remains stalled well north of
the Interstate 10 corridor, stretching from San Antonio to Hearne
to Athens. The KGRK radar this morning is also showing several
moisture "fine lines" across the Brazos Valley, indicative of
remnant outflow boundaries from last night's storms. Other
unidentified boundaries may also exist farther south of these
locations. Limited shear (less than 20 knots) present through
early afternoon and much less steep lapse rates than yesterday
(5.5-6.5 C/km) will result in a much lower severe weather threat
today, but with some dry air present between the surface and 600
MB on forecast soundings cannot rule out gusty winds in stronger
convection. 1.7-2 inch precipitable water values today (higher
than the 75th percentile for this time of year) will also mean the
locally heavy rain threat will continue, especially along any of
the aforementioned boundaries. Subsidence from the passing
shortwave trough should result in another break in the rain by
this evening and into tonight, with diurnal heating and
precipitable water values in the 1.6-1.8 inch range on Tuesday
resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
capable of locally heavy rain. Expect highs to range in the upper
70s to low 80s today, warming into the low to mid 80s on Tuesday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
region Wednesday into the weekend as a series of disturbances now
near the Gulf of Alaska on early morning water vapor imagery drop
to near Baja California and translate east across Texas. Elevated
precipitable water values in the 1.6-1.9 inch range will mean the
threat for locally heavy rainfall will persist each day, with rain
chances likely being enhanced during the daytime hours from
heating. Expect high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 80s
through the end of the work week. Dry weather may not return to
the forecast until early to mid next week as shortwave ridging
attempts to build into the region.

Huffman

MARINE...
Stormy weather this morning over the coastal waters. Outflow
pushed southward through the region bringing gusty conditions
(20-45kt) and has collided with boundary offshore and being
intercepted by incoming MCS from CRP area. Hoisted a SCA through
10 for these strong winds and elevated seas but by 8-10 am expect
that conditions should be improving except for all but the far
coastal waters where storms will probably be the most active-or
just south of there...will need to keep an eye out for meso high
developing and ramping up winds.

Otherwise easterly winds becoming southeasterly this afternoon
and overnight gradually increasing to 10 to 15 knots and then
persisting through Saturday. As moist to very moist conditions
flowing into and through the region expecting showers and
thunderstorms to remain a threat.

ECMWF still painting the scenario of fairly intense low pressure
system developing in the Western Gulf (Saturday) and slowly moving
to near Galveston (Monday morning) which would have big impacts
on the current forecast. Have trended the forecast toward the GFS
but will be watching closely to see of the GFS or the ECMWF blink.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 80 69 84 69 85 / 40 30 40 20 50
Houston (IAH) 81 70 84 71 85 / 50 30 60 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 76 83 / 60 50 60 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning until 11 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship
Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...45
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby unome » Mon May 29, 2017 6:32 am

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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby unome » Mon May 29, 2017 6:44 am

http://txcoasts.com/

https://cgis.glo.texas.gov/Beachwatch/#loc=84

per http://www.gchd.org/public-health-servi ... advisories re Enterococcus.

The bacteria is common in rain runoff and levels often spike after periods of heavy rain.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Texaspirate11 » Mon May 29, 2017 7:22 am

Little bit of wind a bit o'rain that was it for us around Kemah late last night.
Figured it would stay mainly south of me and North.
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Ounce » Mon May 29, 2017 8:18 am

Texaspirate11 wrote:Little bit of wind a bit o'rain that was it for us around Kemah late last night.
Figured it would stay mainly south of me and North.
Here I am stuck in the middle with you.

8-)
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