May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 04, 2017 8:44 am

What an absolutely gorgeous early May Morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 50's, no humidity and breezy Northerly winds!
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby BlueJay » Thu May 04, 2017 11:19 am

May the fourth be with you all on this lovely day!
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 04, 2017 12:33 pm

The overnight Euro and the latest GFS solutions suggest a deep meandering Upper Low developing across the Western US as well as a monsoonal gyre potentially attempting to spin up some Tropical Trouble near the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Eastern Pacific in about a week. Let it serve as a reminder that the 2017 Hurricane Season is fast approaching. Do you and your family have a Hurricane Action Plan incase Tropical Troubles come our Way? I've seen estimates that nearly 2.5 Million new SE Texas Residents have moved to the Upper Texas Coastal Region since Hurricane Ike in September 2008. Many to most of those new residents have never experienced a land falling Tropical Cyclone.
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05042017 12Z GFS 168 gfs_mslp_pwata_epac_29.png
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby jasons » Thu May 04, 2017 12:54 pm

Wow, it's hard to believe we've had that many more residents move-in since then. Can you imagine another Katrina-like traffic jam?

It is a beautiful day. Enjoy it while it lasts - may be the last 50's we see until October.
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 05, 2017 9:27 am

Another pleasant weather day ahead with low dew points and below normal temperatures. Looking ahead to next week, the overnight computer guidance continues to advertise a deepening Western trough and growing potential for a developing tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The monsoonal trough is becoming rather agitated across portions of the Western Caribbean Sea, Central America and the Eastern Pacific. We will continue to monitor developments in the days ahead for the possibility for increasing moisture and a chance of rain return around mid next week.

05052017 00Z Euro 144 ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_7.png


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05052017 1345Z EPAC avn-l.jpg
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby tireman4 » Mon May 08, 2017 1:22 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 081736
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1236 PM CDT Mon May 8 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR cigs expected to scatter out toward evening with VFR
conditions expected through 05-08z. MVFR ceilings are then
expected to develop and expand across area TAF sites by morning.
Winds decrease this evening but never fully decouple. MVFR cigs
will persist for much of the morning with cigs gradually lifting
and scattering out in the afternoon. Although capping looks rather
stout, several of the short term models are showing some potential
for some light showers beneath the cap. Feel probabilities for
rain are too slight to mention in TAF`s. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/

UPDATE...
Moisture creeping in from the southwest is evident on CRP`s
12Z sounding (1.36 inches) in relation LCH`s (0.58 inches)...and
also evident in the increased cloud cover and the way it feels
out there. Current temperatures are already in the upper 70s
and are forecast to top out in the average middle 80s by mid-
afternoon. Southeast Louisiana-centered high pressure has turned
the gradient around to onshore so southerly winds are here to stay
through the majority of the work week...dew points will be back
up into the upper 60s to lower 70s by late tomorrow. Slight
daytime shower chances will be primarily focused to the west and
southwest of Houston Tuesday. Thus...expect warm humid and cloudier
conditions with a brief passing shower through Thursday. 31

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Mon May 8 2017/

MARINE...
Light to moderate south to southeast winds will
persist through Thursday night. Caution level
winds and/or seas could occasionally be reached.
A cold front will move off the coast late Friday
or Friday night with a light to moderate offshore
flow developing in its wake. Over the weekend and
into the start of next week, look for light to
moderate east to southeast winds to gradually
return to the area as surface high pressure moves
off to the east. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 64 86 67 88 / 0 10 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 85 66 85 68 86 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 73 81 74 82 / 0 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31
Aviation/Marine...43
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby CrashTestDummy » Mon May 08, 2017 1:26 pm

jasons wrote:Wow, it's hard to believe we've had that many more residents move-in since then. Can you imagine another Katrina-like traffic jam?

It is a beautiful day. Enjoy it while it lasts - may be the last 50's we see until October.


Or the line around the Home Depot/Lowes waiting for plywood before a storm makes landfall!! :shock:

Next weekend, we change the oil in the generators and test them.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby BlueJay » Tue May 09, 2017 8:52 am

Bulletin: We had a very brief shower here about an hour ago. What a nice surprise!
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 10, 2017 9:09 am

The overnight ensemble guidance suggests changes may be brewing, particularly next week with several synoptic and Hemispheric features coming together that may impact our Region. Tropical Storm Adrian has formed in the Eastern Pacific off the Central American Pacific Coast and is expected to meander NW and then turn toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A rather deep Western trough combines with a favorable MJO with high moisture content from the Central and Eastern Pacific as well as mid and upper level moisture from Adrian and a strong return flow off the Gulf of Mexico that looks to increase rainfall chances across much of the Lone Star State. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the sensible weather forecast will bring more that 3 days out, it will be worth monitoring the trends after a very quiet period in our local weather pattern.

Image

Image

05102017 00Z EC ENS ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png


05102017 ECMWF MJO ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif


05102017 TRMM 00Z 28.gif
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Re: May 2017: Western US Low/EPAC Tropical Troubles

Postby DoctorMu » Wed May 10, 2017 8:33 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The overnight ensemble guidance suggests changes may be brewing, particularly next week with several synoptic and Hemispheric features coming together that may impact our Region. Tropical Storm Adrian has formed in the Eastern Pacific off the Central American Pacific Coast and is expected to meander NW and then turn toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A rather deep Western trough combines with a favorable MJO with high moisture content from the Central and Eastern Pacific as well as mid and upper level moisture from Adrian and a strong return flow off the Gulf of Mexico that looks to increase rainfall chances across much of the Lone Star State. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly what the sensible weather forecast will bring more that 3 days out, it will be worth monitoring the trends after a very quiet period in our local weather pattern.

Image

Image

05102017 00Z EC ENS ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png


05102017 ECMWF MJO ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif


05102017 TRMM 00Z 28.gif


We could use some rain...it was dry as a bone for a week while out of town. Ironically we drove through 1500 miles of rain, some torrential from east Texas on.
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