May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed May 03, 2017 6:48 am

Tornado Watch in affect for portions of SE Texas, SW and South Central Louisiana until 5:00 PM CDT
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby tireman4 » Wed May 03, 2017 7:23 am

Might be a rough and bumpy day folks. Stay tuned here and your local media outlets.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 031138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
638 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017

.AVIATION...
Tricky forecast, as the warm front moves northward aiding in
shower and thunderstorm development across most of the terminals
this morning. Therefore, currently MVFR to IFR across much of the
forecast area. May see a break in the rain and isolated thunder at
some sites late this morning, before the cold front sweeps
through SE TX from the north, later this afternoon. Should see
the main line of precipitation trek across the northern terminals
such as CLL and CXO beginning around 19Z and clearing the coast
closer to 00Z. Behind the front, expect conditions to dry out and
ceilings to rise as skies to begin to clear and high pressure
sets in.

Hathaway

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT Wed May 3 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A pretty active day is in store for Southeast Texas as a warm
front moves northward this morning and a cold front pushes through
the area later this afternoon and off the coast this evening. As
of early this morning, SPC has issued an enhanced risk for severe
storms generally along and east of a line from Madisonville to
Houston to High Island. There is a slight risk for severe storms
to the west of this line over the remainder of the forecast area.
WPC has also introduced a slight risk for excessive rainfall
generally along and east of a line from near Madisonville to Katy
to San Luis Pass.

At 3:00 AM, the warm front was located from near BTP to UTS to
Madisonville. An upper level low pressure trough will move across
the plains during the day and push a cold front into SE Texas
later this afternoon and off the coast this evening. The warm
frontal boundary will be a focus later this morning for stronger
storms with locally heavy rainfall. The Texas Tech 3km WRF pushes
the warm front northeast of the forecast area by the midday
period. This should in turn move the potential for heavier rain
northeast of the forecast area. Uncertainty in exactly where this
boundary will move and the timing of its movement will help
determine the better rainfall coverage today. Another chance for
locally heavy rainfall will occur as thunderstorms develop ahead
of the cold front during the late afternoon and early evening
period. Model forecast soundings show the 0 to 3 km helicity
values reaching to over 400 at KIAH after 7:00 AM this morning and
then dropping to under 200 as the winds become southwesterly in
the early afternoon. The model also showed CAPE values increasing
to over 3000 during the mid to late morning at KIAH as well. These
point toward the risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and
isolated tornadoes with the stronger storms. PWs also reach into
the 98th percentile as compared to climatology today and to the
99th ahead of the cold front. This combined with good 850 mb
moisture transport over the frontal boundaries supports the slight
risk for excessive rainfall.

Clearing skies will be accompanied by cooler, breezy, and drier
conditions behind the cold front later this evening. Cooler than
normal temperatures are expected Thursday. As the upper ridge
builds overhead, temperatures will warm to around or slightly
above normal over the weekend and into the first of next week.

40

MARINE...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are streaming across the marine
zones this morning, as the warm front continues to push northward
and onto the coast of SE TX. Based off of current observations and
model guidance, will continue to carry SCEC conditions through the
day today. Winds in the northwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico,
will remain out of the SE around 10-20 kts this morning and will
eventually turn S/SW by this afternoon. With the passing of the next
front late Wednesday into early Thursday, expect winds to once again
turn clockwise. By 03Z Thursday, a northwesterly wind will prevail
with speeds between 20-25 kts. Sea heights will also be elevated
beginning early Thursday between 5 to 7 feet, and should remain high
until Thursday afternoon around 15Z. Therefore, a Small Craft
Advisory has been added to the forecast for 03-15Z Thursday. High
pressure will take control late Thursday, and winds should remain
out of the N/NW through early Saturday before turning around and
becoming onshore. Wave heights will slowly drop in height Thursday
into Saturday, and eventually fall to between 2 to 4 feet. The
weekend will bring calmer conditions, with the winds out of the E/SE
Sunday around 5-10 kts. Seas will also range between 1-2 feet, and
expect these conditions to continue through Wednesday of next week.

Tides are currently between 1-1.5 feet above MLLW. By 11am today,
tides are forecasted to reach up to 3 feet above MLLW.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 53 75 50 79 / 80 30 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 57 76 54 79 / 80 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 61 75 62 78 / 60 70 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT
Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda
Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...08
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby djmike » Wed May 03, 2017 7:51 am

Looks like we are spared for the morning storms! :/
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby Cromagnum » Wed May 03, 2017 8:03 am

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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby tireman4 » Wed May 03, 2017 8:56 am

I believe folks in the Triangle would disagree with you. Also, the time frame was from 7 am to 11 am. We are not there yet and the variables are there. Now, the promets can give you more details, but there was to be two significant events. This morning and late this afternoon.
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby Ounce » Wed May 03, 2017 9:00 am

On the GOES16 mid-level water vapor loop, would it be correct that the water vapor is colored yellow or which is the water vapor's color?
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... tx-09-48-1

thanks.
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby davidiowx » Wed May 03, 2017 9:29 am

Ounce wrote:On the GOES16 mid-level water vapor loop, would it be correct that the water vapor is colored yellow or which is the water vapor's color?
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... tx-09-48-1

thanks.


I believe the yellow is actually dry air.
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby DoctorMu » Wed May 03, 2017 9:35 am

A lot of action in far East Texas and Louisiana. This thing is getting its act together east of CLL and Hou. It *could* wrap around this afternoon - but dry air may squelch significant rain and storms. Potential bust for us. Watering before leaving town for a few days. :roll:
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby TexasBreeze » Wed May 03, 2017 9:38 am

Yeah it is done for Hou this morning. The line may be squelched too by an incoming cap/dry air like the recent events.
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Re: May 2017 Weather -Active pattern contine?

Postby jasons » Wed May 03, 2017 10:33 am

The forecast is flaking out on us. Darn cap - can't stand it. I really need some rain.
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