May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby tireman4 » Wed May 31, 2017 8:44 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 311148
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
648 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017

.AVIATION...
Some brief IFR cigs possible near the Houston terminals early this
morning but conditions are expected to improve quickly. Convective
temps are in the lower 80`s today so daytime heating should
trigger scattered shra/tsra later today. Precip should end by
evening with generally VFR conds expected through 06z. MVFR cigs
possible between 06-09z in advance of another weak short wave.
Could get some showers prior to Thursday morning sunrise near the
coast as low level moisture increases over SE TX. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A coastal trough remains located just off the Upper Texas coast
early this morning, with backed easterly flow in the vicinity of
this feature resulting in a few showers across the coastal waters
and along Bolivar Peninsula early this morning. Expect this trough
to continue to weaken through the day, with isolated showers
spreading across the coastal counties this morning and isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing farther inland
this afternoon as convective temperatures in the mid 80s are
reached. A few brief heavy downpours will be possible in stronger
activity this afternoon and evening.

Showers and storms may linger into the early evening hours before
dissipating with loss of heating. However, the passage of a 60-70
knot subtropical jet streak as a shortwave trough lifts out of
Chihuahua into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles looks to result in
another round of showers and thunderstorms developing across the
region overnight. Higher resolution and global model guidance
varies with the placement of this jet and, accordingly, where the
best dynamics will be located... which is offering some
inconsistencies on which areas will see rain (and how much).
Lowered rain chances slightly for the overnight period, but
continuing to advertise scattered coverage with the aforementioned
jet near the region. Should favorable jet dynamics set up over
the region overnight to encourage increased upper divergence/lift
over the region, this would help encourage the development of more
storms (and storms that are also more efficient rainfall
producers). Without any well-defined surface boundary and CIPS
analogs showing very little signal for high precipitation
amounts, think the most likely hazard tonight and over the next
few days will continue to be brief heavy downpours.

As a plume of deeper moisture (precipitable water values 1.7-2.0
inches on CIRA layer precipitable water imagery) located about 150
miles south of the Upper Texas coast pushes into the region
tomorrow as the coastal trough loses definition, expect rain
chances to persist inland during the day Thursday with scattered
to numerous diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms expected to
develop. Otherwise, another round of scattered diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s and lows in the 70s through the end of the work
week.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to drop down the California
coast from the northern Pacific this week, reaching northern
Mexico Friday. Energy ejecting ahead of this main disturbance
looks to reach the region on Saturday, possibly resulting in
more shower and thunderstorm coverage during the day than what the
region sees on Friday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
linger into Sunday as the main disturbance reaches Texas with
highs this weekend in the upper 80s and lows in the low to mid
70s.

Medium range guidance still offers differing solutions for when
this weekend`s main disturbance and an associated cold front will
arrive into the region, with the Canadian/GFS advertising the
cold front reaching the region next Tuesday and the European
maintaining the slowest solution with next Wednesday. Have kept
low rain chances (20 PoPs) in the forecast for the beginning of
next week as a result and temperatures near climatological
normals until better consistency is achieved.

Huffman

MARINE...
A weak coastal trough will persist today but the overall pressure
gradient has weakened. A light to occasionally moderate onshore
flow is expected today and tonight. Winds will gradually
strengthen tonight through Friday as low pressure in the lee of
the Rockies deepens. A weaker flow is expected late in the weekend
as the gradient relaxes ahead of a cold front. There are some
timing differences on when/if the cold front crosses the coastal
waters. The Canadian is the fastest and the ECMWF is the slowest
so leaned toward the GFS which was a bit of a compromise bringing
a weak front through on Monday and a second stronger front on
Tuesday. No tide issues expected for the next 5 days. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 71 85 71 88 / 30 30 60 30 30
Houston (IAH) 87 73 85 73 87 / 30 40 60 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 86 77 82 78 83 / 20 40 50 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...43
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby brooksgarner » Wed May 31, 2017 12:05 pm

Hi Guys! Looks like more isolated to brief scattered activity this evening -- around commute time -- along sea breeze boundary. As for bigger rain chances, an storm complex could develop to our west and push through the area. HRRR advertises a passage to our north, but since this is all mesoscale driven, certainly is far from exact. In fact it could slam Houston causing flooding tonight, or it may not hold together.

Ingredients are once again in place, but subtle feature in the upper levels will seem to drive future nocturnal storm development. Pitfalls?

1) Mesoscale boundaries produced as outflow from evening storms set up in different spots. This could change storm evolution and initiation zone.

2) Upper disturbance swinging through may have more or fewer effects than believed.

3) Plume of moisture coming out of coastal south Texas produces offshore storms (off of Galveston), causing an area of subsidence, reducing our storm chances.

Fun!

-Brooks
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby jasons » Wed May 31, 2017 4:19 pm

It doesn't look very promising for tonight, or even tomorrow going into to Friday. I just might end up without a single drop of rain during this much advertised "wet" week. I thought today was supposed to be the mother-lode. Guess not after all.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Cromagnum » Wed May 31, 2017 6:34 pm

jasons wrote:It doesn't look very promising for tonight, or even tomorrow going into to Friday. I just might end up without a single drop of rain during this much advertised "wet" week. I thought today was supposed to be the mother-lode. Guess not after all.



Well in all fairness they did basically say "they don't know what it's going to do until it does it".
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Cromagnum » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:42 pm

100% chance of rain predicted, and yet.

Image
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby mcheer23 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:50 pm

Don't know where you got 100 from
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby Cromagnum » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:57 pm

mcheer23 wrote:Don't know where you got 100 from



Apps on my phone had it at 100% until it didn't happen and then it backed the chances down.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby TexasBreeze » Thu Jun 01, 2017 4:01 pm

It took all week to rain in the TomballSpring area. About 10 min worth. It has been a donut hole since Sunday night's storms.
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Re: May 2017: Memorial Day/End Of May Outlook

Postby djmike » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:23 pm

Fyi... discussion has moved to the June thread...thanks
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