April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

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Re: April 2017 - Easter Weekend Outlook

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:39 am

A 40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across SE TX. Some strong storms may be possible over the far SW counties near Victoria as a storm complex pushes across STX today.
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:54 am

Noticing a bit of agitation at several levels via GOES 16 Visible imagery suggesting the MCV located near Beeville moving ENE may fire off a round of storms near the Victoria Crossroads later this morning and possibly extend East in the afternoon hours with some daytime heating.
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:37 am

Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Couple areas of thunderstorms approaching SE TX this morning

1) One well defined area extends from NW LA to SC OK and is sagging southward on a SSW moving outflow boundary perpendicular to the morning SSW low level jet over N TX
2) A weakening area of thunderstorms over SC TX into S TX which developed from a trough axis out of NE MX overnight. Current mid level vortex is located over Frio and Medina Counties and drifting ENE.

Main questions for today center around thunderstorm activity to our NNE and SW and how these areas will impact SE TX later today. Air mass is certainly moist with dewpoints in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s across the area and with a few hours of sun this morning the air mass will become increasingly unstable. Hard to find any defined outflow boundary approaching from the SW, but suspect there is something down there that will move into the Matagorda Bay area by late morning. NE TX activity will continue to build SW today into an increasingly unstable air mass. What is interesting is the general lack of much short range high resolution guidance support for showers and thunderstorms over SE TX in what would seem to be a fairly primed air mass. Models seem to have a good idea of current convective trends, but generally weaken and dissipate the coastal bend activity while slowly allowing the NE TX activity to approach by this evening.

Not overly confident that models have a good handle on how things may unfold today with an inland moving seabreeze boundary and potential outflow boundaries approaching from both the SW and NNE. Morning capping should erode with surface heating and boundaries should help to add a surface focus and trigger. Will cap rain chances at 50% for the area and not expecting any severe weather, but slow moving heavy rainfall will be possible as storm motions look to be less than 10-15mph this afternoon.

Short range models are a little more robust on Tuesday with the SC TX trough axis laying across the coastal plains, but much of this will depend on how exactly things unfold today into tonight. If there is more widespread development than currently expected today, then the air mass will need time to recover on Tuesday.
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby jasons » Mon Apr 17, 2017 4:14 pm

Fly, meet ointment:

The complex to the west just spit out an outflow boundary that is about to race across Harris County.
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Apr 17, 2017 5:41 pm

That is one big, complicated Meso mess. Awesome wall cloud in Bryan.

Hope the power holds. I'm submitting a proposal for work...
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby CrashTestDummy » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:07 pm

100% chance of some REALLY heavy rain in Pearland right now. Wow!

:shock:
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:03 pm

What is Quais?
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby jasons » Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:37 pm

Raining here again, pretty hard too. Radar may be busy overnight...
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:09 am

Very heavy rains falling across Brazoria and Galveston Counties early this morning.

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...West central Galveston County in southeastern Texas...Northeastern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 AM CDT.

* At 104 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Southwestern League City, southwestern Friendswood, Alvin, eastern Angleton, Santa Fe, Hitchcock, Danbury, Iowa Colony, Hillcrest, Liverpool, Bonney and Chocolate Bayou.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying spots.
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Re: April 2017 - Quais Zonal Pattern Active WX Week

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:10 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
201 AM CDT TUE APR 18 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 400 AM CDT.

* At 159 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Danbury.

The thunderstorms generating the rainfall are slow moving.
Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 are possible in the warned
area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.
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