April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby jasons » Sat Apr 29, 2017 11:25 am

srainhoutx wrote:For what it's worth, the 13Z HRRR initiated the storms that blew up over SE Harris County and moved them NE with not much else expected until overnight when a skinny line of showers passes.


Bummer. We need a decent rain.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby Cromagnum » Sat Apr 29, 2017 1:14 pm

We badly need rain south of Houston. Have missed most all of the activity the last two weeks. Only had one day of it this month seems like it.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby TexasBreeze » Sat Apr 29, 2017 1:21 pm

Other than that one day with the flooding along the coast, it has been a dry month it seems like. Considering the ever present caps, May may not help much either.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby unome » Sat Apr 29, 2017 1:57 pm

we've only had to water the whole lawn once so far this year, but the last couple days of heat & wind have not been good

https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-monitor
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/drought-forecast
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/k ... 2017-04-28
https://waterdatafortexas.org/drought/p ... 2017-04-16

hoping for rain tonight
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby javakah » Sat Apr 29, 2017 2:34 pm

Looks like the HRRR is continuing with its expectation that the line of storms, that should be fairly strong across central Texas this evening, will thin and weaken significantly as it comes through (metro around midnight, city proper just a bit before 1).

However, at about the same time as that line comes through Houston, a second (weaker than the initial line this evening across central Texas) line forms west of San Antonio and broadens as it comes through San Antonio/Austin. The HRRR isn't clear yet as to what it thinks will happen to that second line as it gets closer to Houston, but there's at least some hope that there could be more rain than just from the initial thin line.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Apr 29, 2017 3:40 pm

Saturday afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Windy and humid characterize the current weather across SE TX ahead of an approaching cold front tonight.

One lone severe thunderstorm developed early this morning over SE Harris County and tracked NE into Liberty County and has continued on into WC LA this afternoon. Appears capping inversion was locally broken over SE Harris County this morning likely a result of a passing weak short wave. AM soundings showed a slightly weaker cap than models were suggesting, but capping appears to have increased some this afternoon from the SW as little to nothing besides a few showers under the cap have been able to form.

Main question remains how far south deep and potentially severe convection will extend tonight into early Sunday. Cold front will sweep across the area tonight attached to the parent storm system producing snow over the TX panhandle into western KS currently. Models continue to erode the cap…but I do have my doubts especially south of I-10 given the front will be crossing the area during the least amount of heating (in the middle of the night). Best forcing remains out of phase with the actual surface cold front which also does not bode well for thunderstorms and while SPC has much of the area in a slight or enhanced risk threat think the severe threat is generally low across SE TX tonight especially from I-10 southward. Best chances of severe will be found where the cap is weakest and forcing greatest (generally N of I-10), but really N of a Collage Station to Livingston line. Could see the tail end of a N TX squall line graze this area late tonight with mainly a damaging wind and hail threat.

Cold front sweeps off the coast early Sunday with equally strong NW winds for the morning hours and much cooler temperatures, little humidity, and a break from the southern Mexico smoke/haze. High temps. on Sunday only in the lower 70’s with some 50’s across the area Monday AM.

Moisture comes roaring back on Tuesday as the next system arrives on Wednesday. Forecast soundings look loaded with CAPE of 4000 J/kg and steep lapse rates. Capping also not looking as strong as recent systems, so this could be one to watch for a more significant severe threat across a larger part of the area. Still plenty of time to watch.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby jasons » Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:50 pm

So far, it's looking like a lame line of showers, maybe a tenth of an inch. Hopefully cap can bust. We'll see....
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby javakah » Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:56 pm

Man, it really feels like the area up around Tyler has been tornado warned all day.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby DoctorMu » Sat Apr 29, 2017 9:14 pm

javakah wrote:Man, it really feels like the area up around Tyler has been tornado warned all day.


Horrendous E and S of DFW.

A broken line full of BUST heading toward BCS. I watered a bit in hopes to persuade the rain gods to dump on us...the line will probably explode around Huntsville later.


HOU is not out of the woods - there is a NASTY looking cell blowing up east of San Antonio and heading east.
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Re: April 2017 - MS 150 Forecast This Weekend

Postby javakah » Sat Apr 29, 2017 9:33 pm

My goodness. I was right about that area up around Tyler. It appears that the area was tornado warned for four or five hours. The map of tornado warned areas today there is crazy.

(source: http://www.tornadohq.com/#map)
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