March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby Ounce » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:11 am

Sure looks to be a vein of intense rain and maybe hail moving NE on a line from 99 south of 1093 SSE to the George Ranch.
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:19 am

HGX extends Flood Advisory East into most of Metro Houston. Received a wind gust to 45 MPH about and hour ago with pea sized hail as the storms arrived in NW Harris County.

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1015 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

Montgomery TX-Fort Bend TX-Brazoria TX-Liberty TX-Harris TX-
1015 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
Western Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1215 PM CDT.

* At 1013 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms east of the advisory area. This will cause urban and
small stream flooding as these thunderstorms move into the
advisory area. Up to one to one and a half inches of rain is
possible in less than an hour.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, Rosenberg, Stafford, Bellaire,
Humble, West University Place, Richmond, Galena Park, Jacinto City,
Jersey Village, Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village,
Piney Point Village, Downtown Houston, Greenway / Upper Kirby Area,
Kingwood and Spring Branch North.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:32 am

Heads up Galleria Area, Memorial Park and Downtown. Rotation tightening up. Tornado Warning coming shortly!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:33 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1029 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
South central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1100 AM CDT.

* At 1029 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
tornado was located over Braeburn, or near Bellaire, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, northern Missouri City, Stafford, Bellaire,
West University Place, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Hunters Creek
Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Midtown Houston,
Downtown Houston, Northside / Northline, Greenway / Upper Kirby
Area, Second Ward, Greater Heights, Neartown / Montrose, Greater
Eastwood, Near Northside Houston and Greater Fifth Ward.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby tireman4 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:52 am

We are in the warning box ( Gulfgate). Southern end of it.
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby Ounce » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:07 am

Well, that was a quick way to get 1.2" at 10 & Chimney Rock.
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby sau27 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:40 am

Looks like the couplet went right by my house in the Meyerland area.
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby Cromagnum » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:06 pm

Very ominous in Rosharon area right now
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby djjordan » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:38 pm

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 200 PM CDT.

* At 118 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Splendora, or
near Cleveland, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Livingston, Shepherd, Splendora, Coldspring, Plum Grove,
Goodrich, North Cleveland, Lake Livingston State Park, West
Livingston, Tarkington Prairie, Romayor and Rye.
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:56 pm

mcd0368.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Texas into western Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291831Z - 292100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may strengthen later today into the evening with a
tornado risk along with locally damaging winds. A watch could be
required later this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A leading line of cells approaching the Sabine river is
currently weakening, while new cells continue to evolve to the west
near dying/mixing outflow boundaries. Here, the cap is locally
weaker as well as compared to points east, although the 18Z LCH
sounding shows a dramatic increase in low-level moisture and
weakened capping inversion.

Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue to overspread the
area, with main surface low well to the north. Southerly 850 mb flow
around 25-35 kt will be maintained, and change little through 00Z.
As the trough approaches, a boost to low-level convergence will
occur and help to eventually push this cluster of cells eastward
across LA.

In the short term, it appears the severe threat will be driven by
the storm scale, with merging cells eventually becoming supercells
as gradual destabilization occurs and meso lows form, also locally
backing surface winds and maintaining favorable low-level shear.
Indeed VWPs show better backing at 850 mb in closer proximity to the
storm cluster, with less favorable shear farther east into LA. The
air mass remains very moist, with impressive lapse rates aloft.
Although widespread severe is not expected, a small corridor may
certainly develop a supercell tornado risk this afternoon through
evening.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/29/2017


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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