March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:53 am

A line of strong thunderstorms is moving into SE TX currently however no watches or warnings are in effect. The line of storms will move across the Houston-Galveston areas after 9AM. The potential will remain for some storms to go severe. After this line pushes E of the area, additional develop may occur later this afternoon ahead of the front that will pass through SE TX tonight.

The line of storms is currently pushing across ETX as well this morning. There were numerous reports of wind of wind damage across N portions of Dallas-Ft Worth last night with 200,000 people without power this morning.
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:28 am

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

A very active night across a large part of TX with numerous reports of severe weather damage and several tornadoes.

West TX squall line is progressing into the western counties of SE TX currently. Line currently extends from near Huntsville to near Victoria and progressing eastward steadily. Overall storm intensity has been weaken and this was shown by the rapid refresh models yesterday. Additionally the line is slowing as it has now moved well ahead of the favorable lift and dynamics of the parent upper level system over the southern plains. While the air mass will slowly destabilize across SE TX this morning, expect the incoming line to continue to weaken and likely reach the I-45 corridor around 900-1000am. Air mass behind the line is fairly stable with temperatures falling into the 60’s on a large generated west TX cold pool.

Better dynamics with a splitting jet structure and better lapse rates arrive over the area later this afternoon. If surface temperatures can rebound to around 80 degrees behind the first decaying line of thunderstorms then additional thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon. This is a conditional threat based on clouds clearing behind the morning activity and enough surface heating occurring.

While the morning storms may still produce an isolated damaging wind gust the current severe weather threat is low. If storms are able to redevelop this afternoon the main threat would be large hail given the cooling temperatures aloft.

Area will enjoy a break between storm systems Thursday-Saturday before the next organized system arrive Sunday. Global models are showing the arrival of a potent upper air system into W TX late Saturday which will fire off another round of severe thunderstorms over the western and central part of the state Saturday afternoon and night. This activity should begin to arrive into SE TX Sunday and continue into Sunday night and possibly Monday morning. This system is looking fairly wet with heavy rainfall and possibly flash flooding on Sunday into Sunday night. While the overall speed of the system is progressive very high moisture values will be brought into the area and dynamics aloft look to be placed over top of these high values which will maximize rainfall rates. Still a lot of time to watch and fine tune impacts for the Sunday/Monday period.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:12 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
809 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Eastern Colorado County in southeastern Texas...
Northern Wharton County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Austin County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 845 AM CDT.

* At 809 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Wallis, or 9
miles south of Sealy, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Rosenberg, Katy, Richmond, Sealy, Brookshire, Wallis,
Fulshear, Simonton, San Felipe, Pattison, Orchard, Weston Lakes,
Cumings and Cinco Ranch.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:16 am

Overshooting tops noted via GOES 16 with the storms just West of Houston.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:28 am

03292017 mcd0367.gif


Mesoscale Discussion 0367
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291323Z - 291430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is expected to move across
southeast Texas over the next few hours. A few damaging wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado may occur with short bowing line
segments. However threat threat should remain marginal for WW
issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a continuous line of
thunderstorms located from about 40 statute miles west of Houston
extending south southwestward to the vicinity of Victoria. The line
appears to be located along an old outflow boundary. Ahead of this
line, a moist airmass is present with surface dewpoints in the upper
60s F with moderate instability in place (MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500
J/kg). The line of storms is being supported by a subtle shortwave
trough moving around an upper-level low in the southern high Plains
and this will help maintain the line as it moves across the
remainder of southeast Texas over the next few hours. Concerning the
environment, the Houston WSR-88D VWP shows substantial directional
shear in the boundary layer with ample speed shear above 2 km AGL.
This is resulting in about 70 kt of 0-6 km shear suggesting storm
organization will be possible with this convection. The current
thinking is that this line will continue to have an isolated severe
threat and that a few damaging wind gusts will occur as the line
moves across the Houston area. A brief tornado can also not be ruled
out but low-level shear appears to be marginal for a more sustained
tornado threat.

..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/29/2017


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby unome » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:36 am

looking green, hearing thunder, may be time to unplug for a while

https://twitter.com/iembot_hgx

https://twitter.com/wxGIF_Texas
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby tireman4 » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:49 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
Radar shows one band of storms that moved across KCLL to KUTS
this morning with another band of storms approaching from the
W/SW. This line on its current track and speed should reach
KSGR/KHOU/KIAH around 13-15Z time frame. All TAFs are accounting
for similar timing for KLBX/KGLS/KCXO/KUTS/KCLL. There is still
capping the line is fighting since the southern extend of the
squall line is struggling to hold together. This will be the main
concern for the next 6 hours. Difficult to know if the storms will
hold together or weaken into just showers as they reach Houston
terminals. TAFs reflect storms reaching Houston but will need to
watch trends closely. Trends with the HRRR show the line weakening
through the morning hours although the timing from the HRRR is to
slow. HRRR also indicates the possibility of storms re-developing
this afternoon/evening. Quite possible IF there is enough
recovery and the atmosphere is not overworked by previous
convection. TAFs reflect this possibility with VCTS but this could
very well be removed with future TAF updates depending on how the
first round of convection evolves. Overnight NAM suggests MVFR
ceilings with remaining low level moisture while GFS is drier.
TAFs went with trends of drier ahead of Pacific front that pushes
through the area 06-10Z tomorrow morning. VFR expected for
Thursday.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper low pressure trough will move across the state today and
the associated cold front will push across SE Texas tonight. A
line of thunderstorms was moving east of the Interstate 35
corridor at 3:00 AM. The latest models have been a bit slow with
the advent of the storms; although, the latest runs of the HRRR
are fairly close. All the models slow the advance of the line of
storms as they enter into the western counties of the forecast
area. If the storms continue their current trends, expect the line
to reach College Station and Madisonville by 4:00 AM. If it does
not slow down, the line should then reach Huntsville, Bellville,
and possibly Columbus between 5:00 and 6:00 AM. All the models
then show the line slowing and probably not reaching metro
Houston until sometime between 6:00 AM and 9:00 AM.

Still looking at a decent environment for at least isolated severe
storms. Main threats are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes
given 0-3 km helicity values are between 300 and 400 ahead of the
line. Other threats include large hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Expect the initial line of storms to move out of the area during
the midday to early afternoon period. The HRRR shows the potential
for additional development later in the afternoon. The actual cold
front will move across the forecast area tonight.

After a cooler day on Thursday, an upper level ridge moving
overhead will set things up for a rather warm Friday. Highs on
Friday will likely reach into the mid 80s.

The progressive flow aloft will bring the next system across SE
Texas over the weekend and early next week. The best chances for
showers and thunderstorms will be on Sunday and Sunday night.
Isolated to strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall
again look to be possible.

40

MARINE...
Southeast winds of 20 to 28 knots will continue across the Upper
Texas Coast this morning. Seas have become rough with significant
wave heights reaching 6-7ft nearshore and 8-9ft off shore based on
NOAA buoys. Winds should decrease later today but due to the long
fetch of southeast winds, seas will remain rough. Small craft
advisory has been extended for the offshore waters until this
evening when seas should drop below 7 feet. A Pacific front will
push off the coast Thursday morning allowing for winds to shift
to the northwest. Winds quickly return to the south on Friday and
increase through the weekend. Caution or advisories may be needed
over the weekend. Another Pacific front pushes through early
Monday which will shift winds again.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 56 77 56 86 / 80 20 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 61 78 57 86 / 80 40 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 66 74 66 78 / 70 50 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 AM CDT this morning
through this evening for the following zones: Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High
Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby unome » Wed Mar 29, 2017 8:55 am

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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby unome » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:00 am

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/ ... 1703291350

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
857 AM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
North central Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 856 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Katy, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Katy, Jersey Village, Brookshire, Addicks Park Ten, Spring Branch
North, Spring Branch West, Fulshear, Pattison, Westbranch, Cypress,
Carverdale, Cinco Ranch and Fairbanks / Northwest Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2969 9590 2984 9600 3006 9571 2984 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1356Z 236DEG 20KT 2981 9588

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
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Re: March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby unome » Wed Mar 29, 2017 9:42 am

hearing small hail, nothing much & no gushing rain, which is what we need to get rid of the pollen

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... GX-HHC-1-6

edit: ask & ye shall receive, now it's pouring :)
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