March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

March-2017: Active Spring WX Pattern Ahead

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:27 am

With March and a transition into Spring ahead, the reliable Global models suggest the transition from Winter to Spring may be a bit interesting around our Region. Will colder air make brief intrusions or will the usually warm weather continue? Discuss...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16263
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: March-2017: In Like A Lion/Out Like A Lamb?

Postby BlueJay » Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:56 am

I am waiting on everyone on this forum to tell me what March 2017's weather will be.

My thought is that we are "due" for some cold winter weather and that March will not be as lovely as February. Time will tell.
BlueJay
 
Posts: 602
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas

Re: March-2017: In Like A Lion/Out Like A Lamb?

Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 24, 2017 4:46 pm

Looks more like "in like a lamb", srain. A weak cold front may drop our temps to seasonal norms for a day or two next week before they had back to near 80 degrees. I think March will be warmer than normal, though not as much above normal as February has been (10.2F above, so far). A little drier than normal, too. Long-range EC ensembles are hinting at a less stormy pattern by mid March.
User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 2524
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)

Re: March-2017: In Like A Lion/Out Like A Lamb?

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:43 am

A slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms today and Tuesday with warm temps reaching the low to mid 80s across SE TX. The next front arrives Wednesday with a chance of thunderstorms before clearing skies. Temps will once again drop down to normal for this time of year with lows in the upper 40s and highs in the upper 60s.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1475
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 9:18 am
Location: League City, Tx

Re: March-2017: Weekend Rain Chance

Postby Cromagnum » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:10 am

We arent transitioning into spring anymore. We seem to have solidly been there since late January.
Cromagnum
 
Posts: 175
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 11:42 pm

Re: March-2017: Weekend Rain Chance

Postby jasons » Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:07 am

It's March 1st! Happy Metereological Spring!!!
jasons
 
Posts: 1514
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:54 pm
Location: Rayford-Sawdust

Re: March-2017: Rain Chances Return

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:00 am

A gorgeous Early March I ahead today into tomorrow with seasonal temperatures and low humidity as a light NW flow aloft keeps drier air filtering into our Region.

It appears that an onshore flow begins Friday night and increases Saturday as a couple for upper air disturbances move across the area bringing increasing moisture and a chance for showers Sunday into Monday. The guidance suggest that a Coastal low/trough will develop across the South Texas area Sunday as a warm front meanders North providing just enough lift to generate some mostly light rainfall inland with a chance of some moderate rain along the Coastal Counties as the disturbances pass. There is still some disagreement in the various model solutions regarding the next weather maker expected to arrive mid next week. The GFS is rather aggressive with a stronger upper trough arriving while the ECMWF keeps the energy further North and suggest we will remain very warm and may not see a cold front. Believe that the Euro solution is probably more correct with the mainly zonal flow across the Western 2/3rds of the United States and will lean more toward an inch or tow of rainfall along the Coast Sunday into Monday with less than an 1/2 inch further inland. The morning 7 Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast suggests higher total down the Coast where the Coastal low/trough may bring heavier rainfall chances.

Image
Attachments
03022017 10Z 7 Day QPF p168i.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16263
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: March-2017: Rain Chances Return

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Mar 02, 2017 9:02 am

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold front moved off the coast yesterday afternoon allowing a near normal air mass to reside over the area this morning. Cool temperatures, at least compared to recent days, will be in place today and Friday…but above normal temperatures will return for the weekend.

An upper level storm system will dig into NW MX by late Friday/early Saturday and then spread eastward across southern TX Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface a coastal trough and possibly even a low pressure center will develop Saturday near Brownsville and move ENE/NE up the TX coast Saturday night into Sunday. Moisture will increase late Friday into Saturday ahead of this feature with clouds thickening and lowering. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will erupt early Saturday over S TX and spread NE during the day into SE TX by the evening hours on Saturday as the coastal feature moves along the coast. Current indications suggest that the best moisture and heaviest rainfall will remain offshore with amounts upwards of an inch across the Matagorda Bay region into the coastal bend and lesser amounts elsewhere.

Shortwave and coastal feature should be passing east of SE TX by late Sunday and this should lower rain chances Sunday night into Monday.

Models are not in good agreement with the handling of a frontal passage at some point Tuesday/Wednesday with the GFS stronger, wetter, and colder and the ECMWF hardly showing a front. Will lean toward the ECMWF as this winter season has been warmer over colder and fronts just have not had much push or cold air.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16263
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: March-2017: Rain Chances Return

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Mar 03, 2017 7:17 am

After a couple of days of cooler and drier weather, changes are brewing in the Weekend/Early Week timeframe. A warm front and a Coastal Low/trough is expected to develop long the Lower and Middle Texas Coast bringing a chance for heavy rainfall with the possiblility of Flash Flooding, High Winds mainly offshore and potentially some Coastal Flooding as a surface low organizes Saturday night near the Lower Texas Coast and moves generally ENE on Sunday.
Attachments
03032017 5 Day QPF p120i.gif
03032017 Day 2 Excessive Rainfall 98ewbg.gif
03032017 1130Z Goes West sat_wv_west.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16263
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: March-2017: Rain Chances Return

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:14 pm

A potential dark day in meteorological science as Presdient Trump targets NOAA for deep cuts. :oops: :x
DoctorMu
 
Posts: 612
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station

Next

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest