by srainhoutx » Thu Mar 30, 2017 7:13 am
Thursday morning briefing from Jeff and storm reports from yesterday:
Another powerful upper level storm system to impact the area this weekend.
The upper level system which brought severe weather and flooding to the area yesterday is progressing eastward this morning while the next system to cause impacts to our area is approaching the US west coast. Air mass has dried and cooled behind a weak cold front which passed through the area overnight and this air mass will be in place today into early Friday. Winds will return to the SSE by midday Friday and the return of Gulf moisture will be underway ahead of the next approaching storm system.
Saturday:
Moisture returns in earnest on Saturday with PWS rising to above normal levels. Upper level system will begin to approach W TX and a short wave will move across NC TX during the afternoon hours. Latest models are showing more and more development of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening as lift combines with the ongoing warm air advection regime. Do not expect any severe weather late Saturday into Saturday night, but rainfall could be heavy at times.
Sunday:
Brunt on main lift and highest moisture levels come to bear across the region…for an active weather day! While parameters are a little vague at this range, enough support is in the global model guidance for both a severe and heavy rainfall threat on Sunday. Strong upper air disturbances will move into N MX/SW TX late Saturday night into Sunday morning helping to ignite widespread thunderstorm development over SW TX, SC TX, and the coastal plains by early Sunday morning. Storms may grow upscale into a slow eastward moving MCS which will then impact SE TX from the morning into the afternoon hours on Sunday. Upper air winds will favor cell training of potentially excessive rainfall rates (2-4 inches per hour) which can quickly cause problems in urban areas. The severe threat at this time is more conditional and likely second to the heavy rainfall threat given questions on available instability and how meso scale processes may evolve. Think all severe modes will be possible similar to yesterday, but not confident on the threat level at this point.
Given recent heavy rainfall yesterday and a very short return period for additional heavy rainfall the threat for flash flooding/flooding will be higher with this incoming system. Ground conditions are saturated after yesterday and will only dry slightly before the onset of additional heavy rainfall. Other concerns include the potential for saturating rainfall Saturday evening before the main round of thunderstorms on Sunday and the potential for high hourly rainfall rates.
Wednesday Storm Reports:
Houston, Harris: ***1 injured*** Construction worker on a roof in SW Houston was struck by lightning. Co-workers performed CPR until paramedics arrived and were able to revive the individual.
Addicks, Harris: Lightning struck as house resulting in significant fire damage
Bellaire, Harris: ***Tornado*** EF-1 tornado confirmed by NWS assessment team at the Azalea Place apartment complex. Tornado was 50 yards wide and .25 of a mile long. Roof, tree, and carport damage at the apartment complex. Estimated wind speed 90mph
Bellaire, Harris: trees down at Braewick and Braeswood
Bellaire, Harris: Large trees down on Holly Hall near New Castle
Jersey Village, Harris: dime size hail at the intersection of US 290 and Fairbanks N Houston
Lake Houston, Harris: half inch diameter hail reported at Lake Houston Dam
Friendswood, Galveston: Flash flooding from excessive rainfall trapped several vehicles in high water
Baytown, Harris: Flash Flooding from excessive rainfall resulted in deep street flooding. One person on a bicycle fell into a storm drainage culvert and was sucked into the culvert by the flow of the water. Nearby motorists pulled the person out of the culvert saving their life
Pasadena, Harris: ***Tornado*** Significant roof damage at a large warehouse on Bay Park Rd. Cars in the parking lots overturned. Cell video showed a tornado approaching the location. NWS will survey and rate damage today.
La Porte, Harris: ***Tornado, 2 Injured*** Numerous large shipping containers moved, lofted, and dropped at Barbers Cut Terminal…2 persons were injured when containers struck them. Several cars were lofted and moved with a few overturned. This is likely the same tornado that struck the Pasadena area and NWS teams will visit the area today to determine where this was one continuous path or two separate touchdowns.
Cove, Chambers: North Point Weatherflow Station measured wind gust of 48mph
Cove, Chambers: Flash flooding stalled vehicles at I-10 and FM 565
Morgan’s Point, Harris: 55mph measured at Morgan’s Point
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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