February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:31 pm

Thursday evening briefing from Jeff:

Today marks the 17th time this winter BUSH IAH has hit 80 degrees…the most ever in a winter season.

The high today of 107 at Falcon Dam, if verified, would be the hottest temperature ever record in the entire US for the entire month of February!

While there are still a few days left, it appears that the winter of 16-17 (Dec-Feb) will become the warmest winter ever on record for Houston.

Hot weather will continue for one more day before a cold front over OK pushes across SE TX late Friday returning temperatures to near average for the weekend for a change. Compressional heating ahead of this front tomorrow along with SSW winds will result in a rapid warm up once morning low clouds and fog lift and scattered. Certainly could see mid 80’s again for much of the area and even some upper 80’s from Matagorda Bay toward College Station.

Cold front will cross the area dry Friday evening/night as there is little to no moisture to work with the boundary. Temperatures on Saturday will cool into the 40’s for lows and 60’s for highs or about normal for late February standards.

Fast moving storm system may clip the area late Sunday into Monday. GFS has come in much wetter (high rain chances) Sunday night into early Monday, but only shows modest QPF. Not sure we will have decent moisture in place that fast by late Sunday and main dynamics pass north of our region…so will go with the highest rain chances across the northern counties.

Another system arrives toward mid week with additional rain chances and some decent cold air advection of a Canadian air mass. Could be fairly cool by the end of next week with the GFS showing extensive upper level moisture over top of cold NE surface winds which would inhibit much heating…may only have highs in the 50’s by next Thursday.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby Thundersleet » Fri Feb 24, 2017 1:26 am

Needless to say, the month of March starts in less than a week from today. My birthday is a week from this Sunday. Do any & all of the computer models have any clue notion on what I could might anticipate to get? It sounds as though this year may turn out to be rather chilly.
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Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Feb 24, 2017 8:11 am

Low confidence for next weekend from this morning's AFD:

There are some differences in model
solutions for the end of next week. GFS has shown a coastal trough
or low developing with quite a bit of QPF along the coast. ECMWF
has no such system and is much weaker with a closed low over Baja
peninsula. The forecast will go with some 20 PoPs for the end of
next week to account for the possibility of the GFS but overall
confidence is pretty low with this part of the forecast.
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Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby Cromagnum » Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:21 pm

Only 10 months to go before we have a shot at cold weather again. :|

If winter 2017 is anything like 2016, we will soon be in the 90s -100s until November.

At least it was pleasant this weekend.
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Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Feb 26, 2017 6:52 pm

In CLL 2016 March and April were about average, May-July below average, with August humid and about average. The dew points were higher than 2015. October was warmer than average. November and December far warmer than average...


Am concerned that warm, dry weather forecasted in the Spring could lead to a blast furnace summer.
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Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:11 am

Meteorological Winter ends today and thankfully we escaped our Winter without much in the way of Winter Weather events other than a couple bouts with sleet and one very cold morning in January when temperatures in NW Harris County dropped to 18F for an hour or so. Winter did bring welcomed rainfall and some severe weather across the Region with some hail and several tornadoes. Above normal temperatures were the main theme and a long term drought in California and parts of the Intermountain West came to an amazing end. All in all it was wetter than what was expected across the Lone Star State in compared to what the Long Range Seasonal Forecasts called for. For that we can be thankful. Spring flowers are blooming early and the hard freeze was enough to at least knock down the bugs a bit. On to Spring and looking ahead to Hurricane Season 2017!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: February 2017- Spring Like Weather Returns

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:14 am

Tuesday morning briefing from Jeff:

February will end like much of the month has been…hot!

BUSH IAH has set 5 record highs this month and tied or exceeded 80 degrees 10 times. February 2017 is the first February since 1950 where the low temperature did not fall into the 30’s. The coldest overnight low this month was 40 on February 16.

Warm air advection pattern remains in place across TX this morning with an extremely warm start with low temperatures averaging in the low to mid 70’s or some 20-30 degrees above normal. While the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, 850mb winds from the SSW/SW have helped to bring a warm layer of air from northern MX across the region effectively capping the air mass.

A cold front attached to a northern US storm system will slide down the plains and across TX today and tonight. While moisture does pool ahead of this boundary, mid level capping should preclude much more than a line of showers or an isolated thunderstorm where local lift is maximized. Think the best chances for a thunderstorm will be NE of Houston and really NE of Lake Livingston where capping is weakest and upper forcing strongest.

Front will return the area to near normal late February temperatures with cold air advection on Wednesday helping to keep temperatures in the 60’s. Low temperatures will fall into the 40’s on Thursday and Friday mornings which will be near normal for this time of year.

Next storm system moves into NW MX this weekend and then heads for TX over the weekend into next week. Look for a surface trough to form along the TX coast at some point this weekend. Models are not in the best agreement on when this trough will form and what period (Sat, Sun, Mon) look to have the best rain chances. Overall looks like a decent rainfall setup, especially for the coastal areas at some point this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will rise to above normal levels again by this weekend.
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