January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

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January 2017 -Warming Trend To End The Month

Postby Portastorm » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:20 am

Starting the thread ... the talk of a January 2007 analog is exciting. For us in Austin, we experienced a multi-day winter weather event with sleet and freezing rain which pretty much shut down the city for two days. In fact, we had 80 consecutive hours of at or below freezing during that event. And I believe you H-town folks had it even worse. Bears watch!
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby BlueJay » Wed Dec 21, 2016 10:58 am

I'm not looking forward to such a scenario...
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Dec 21, 2016 11:53 am

Portastorm wrote:Starting the thread ... the talk of a January 2007 analog is exciting. For us in Austin, we experienced a multi-day winter weather event with sleet and freezing rain which pretty much shut down the city for two days. In fact, we had 80 consecutive hours of at or below freezing during that event. And I believe you H-town folks had it even worse. Bears watch!


Bring it! As a matter of fact juice up January 2007 on steroids and unleash the cold hounds on Texas for a couple weeks. 70 degree weather sucks in Winter.
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:08 pm

If the 12Z GEFS Ensemble is correct, colder air returns the first week of January. As we know, the longer range is often very inaccurate, but there are some indications the Teleconnection Indices may be trending to a pattern conducive of reloading our source Regions with the bitterly cold air currently situated across Siberia where actual temperatures are -60F today. We will see.
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12212016 12Z GEFS 384 gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Dec 21, 2016 1:32 pm

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GEFS Ensemble is correct, colder air returns the first week of January. As we know, the longer range is often very inaccurate, but there are some indications the Teleconnection Indices may be trending to a pattern conducive of reloading our source Regions with the bitterly cold air currently situated across Siberia where actual temperatures are -60F today. We will see.


The 4-5 sd +NAO really relaxes to near normal in the long range too, which will erode that SE ridge. Couple that with our Aleutian ridge and a slightly negative PNA and we are in bidness!
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby DoctorMu » Wed Dec 21, 2016 4:59 pm

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GEFS Ensemble is correct, colder air returns the first week of January. As we know, the longer range is often very inaccurate, but there are some indications the Teleconnection Indices may be trending to a pattern conducive of reloading our source Regions with the bitterly cold air currently situated across Siberia where actual temperatures are -60F today. We will see.


Hard to keep that kind of stuff bottled up. We'll see paroxysmal forays into Canada and down the easter slopes of the Rockies a few more times this winter. Guessing when is just that - good educated guesses...but fun to think about nonetheless.
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby CrashTestDummy » Thu Dec 22, 2016 10:15 am

BlueJay wrote:I'm not looking forward to such a scenario...


Agreed! Covering our citrus is getting to be quite the project when this kind of weather approaches. Usually, we're covering things in 30-MPH winds!!
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Dec 23, 2016 8:50 am

Looking ahead into early January, there are indications that a Blocking Regime develops both in the NE Pacific and the NW Atlantic setting the stage for another potential Arctic Intrusion into our source Regions.

12232016 Mike Ventrice C0XQKx1WIAE4Qb6.jpg


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 35m35 minutes ago
We're looking at a major arctic air mass intrusion (cold snap) across western Canada in through the western half of the US during early Jan
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby mcheer23 » Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:56 am

FWIW....12z GFS has some wintry precip around HGX on new years day
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Re: January 2017 - Mild start but then what?

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Dec 24, 2016 10:22 am

The overnight ensemble guidance continues to advertise a Major Hemispheric Pattern change begins as we start the New Year. A particularly strong +NAO combined with a tanking -EPO regime suggests that Central North America could develop a very deep cold longwave trough with the coldest air across the Northern Hemisphere firmly anchored on our side of the Globe.
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gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_49.png
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