December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

Postby ticka1 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:28 am

will we finally aee real cold this month?
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Nov 18, 2016 11:44 am

Putin has negotiated an agreement with Trump to hack our La Nina and send Siberian air through Alaska and east of the Rockies intermittently. Stay tuned.
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:00 pm

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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Nov 18, 2016 12:23 pm

Pop, block and drop it!
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby ticka1 » Fri Nov 18, 2016 1:23 pm

DoctorMu wrote:Putin has negotiated an agreement with Trump to hack our La Nina and send Siberian air through Alaska and east of the Rockies intermittently. Stay tuned.


winter geeks united! love this!
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby Ounce » Fri Nov 18, 2016 2:46 pm

ticka1 wrote:
DoctorMu wrote:Putin has negotiated an agreement with Trump to hack our La Nina and send Siberian air through Alaska and east of the Rockies intermittently. Stay tuned.


winter geeks united! love this!


As long as the cold air stays in the contiguous 45 states (in keeping with the theme of this mini-thread and Canada picking up CA, OR, and WA), I'm fine.
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Nov 20, 2016 9:48 am

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a potential significant pattern change as we start December. The GFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs finally have some memorable analog years such as 1983 and 1972 as well as 1997 which were brought Texas wintry weather. If the ensembles are correct, a strong Blocking regime may become established and the Teleconnection Indices agree with this potential.

11202016 Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif


The 06Z suggests in the longer range as we begin December, a potent sharp cold front will arrive with additional disturbances following in the NW flow aloft. While it is still too soon to know with any certainty how events will unfold in this very long range, the indicators certainly are suggesting the potential does exist for a significant pattern change as the Pacific flow relaxes and a more typical wintertime pattern develops. Stay Tuned!

11202016 06Z GFS 278 gfs_z500aNorm_namer_44.png

11202016 06Z GFS 276 gfs_T2ma_namer_44.png

11202016 06Z GFS 276 gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_43.png
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Nov 21, 2016 3:23 pm

We continue to see changes brewing in the Hemispheric Pattern as we turn the calendar to December. The 12Z longer range European model agrees with the GFS suggesting a cooler and stormy regime may be possible. If the trends continue, I would not be surprised to see more frequent cold fronts arriving every 3 to 5 days with progressively colder air surging South from Canada as we move further into the new month.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png


The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Analogs suggest 1983 may be the best example of the potential sensible weather pattern as December begins.

814analog.off (9).gif
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:48 am

Hoooo boy, the Euro and GFS long range have the dam breaking as we approach the end of the 2nd week of December.

-20 to -30F entering Montana. EPO tanks as well as we approach mid month. We have a front every 2-4 days from each run.
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Re: December 2016-Will the weather pattern change

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Nov 23, 2016 12:39 pm

11232016 00Z ECMWF Ens Mike Ventrice Cx9slzaXAAQoP5Y.jpg


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 4m4 minutes ago  Vinings, GA
Wow look at the amplitude of the ridge forecast to build in over the North-Northwest Pacific on Day 15 per ECMWF Ens

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