December 2016- End Of Year Forecast

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:13 pm

The afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook as well as the Day 8+ Analogs along with the 12Z ECMWF/GEFS/GEM Ensembles are in rather good agreement suggesting a colder and messy pattern may be developing as we head into the late weekend and early next week timeframe. A pesky stretched from NE to SW cold upper trough typically spells cold temperatures at the surface with over running moisture from the Eastern Pacific. It is becoming a bit clearer that a strong Arctic front will arrive Sunday setting the stage for a cold and dreary pattern into the week before Christmas.

12132016 CPC 610temp_new.gif

12132016 CPC 610prcp_new.gif

12132016 Day 8+ Analogs 610analog_off.gif

12132016 12Z  ECMWF EPS 168 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_8.png

12132016 12Z GEFS 168 gfs-ens_z500aNorm_namer_29.png

12132016 12Z GEM 168 gem-ens_z500aNorm_namer_29.png
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Dec 13, 2016 4:54 pm

Dreary wouldn't be the word I would be looking for. :)


More like Winter-like or Christmas appropriate!
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby David Paul » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:00 pm

The problem with forecasting a snow storm in Houston is figuring out the position and track of the coastal low. IF a low forms a little further southeast and is a little stronger than forecast it can pull in more cold air, but also pull moisture further offshore, stunting the snow chance. A little closer to the coast of Galveston, and you get the moisture, but not enough cold air. However, the larger ensemble pattern appears to be favoring an amplified pattern that would allow for a shallow modified arctic air mass to reach the upper Texas coast. Where will the coastal low form? Will one form at all? What will the track be? Or will there be a little, unseen, disturbance ride overhead from the southwest to coincide with morning low temps near freezing?? And then there is the dew point and wet bulbing and... Not going to lose sleep over any of this, but I'm watching...
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby snowman65 » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:07 pm

Just curious but when was the last measurable snowfall in S.E Tx? I'm talking about inches, not just a dusting.
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 13, 2016 5:36 pm

snowman65 wrote:Just curious but when was the last measurable snowfall in S.E Tx? I'm talking about inches, not just a dusting.


December 2008 brought a round of snow along and S of I-10 with a potent cold core upper low that moved out of San Antonio into Houston. December 2009 brought areas near Sugarland on East 3 to 5 inches. January, February' and early March 1973 is still my benchmark for memorable snow fall across SE Texas. The City was virtually shut down for 2 days in January 11-12, 1973 with some isolated locations receiving 6 to 8 inches. The image below is a reanalysis of the January 11th, 1973 pattern.
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:55 pm

Heat Miser wrote:I'm not getting excited about the possibility of our northern areas (probably a good 80 miles to my north) getting a few if any ice pellets.
Let's talk about a good 2 to 3 inches of snow, maybe more, and a chance it will stay on the ground more than a day, then I'll get a tad interested.
Been burned way too many times in getting excited about the prospects of frozen precip in this area since my childhood.
I recall as a wee child shining a flashlight out of my window for hours on end in the hopes of seeing anything besides liquid fall.
It was not to be.
Everyone recalls the 2004 Christmas eve miracle. I remember some in the weather business hinting at the possibility of snow that Friday, but none and I mean not one said anything about a full blown coastal white-out with 3 inches in Friendswood and the further south southwest were ridiculous amounts up to 11 inches.
Firmly believe meteorologist in this area don't have a grasp of winter weather as they do normal sub tropical weather patterns such as your typical sea breeze thunderstorm or your Tropical systems.
Can't really be upset with them because the real threats for our area come from the Gulf and your rare super cell.


Actually, there were predictions of significant snowfall (that means a half inch+ in Houston). The system took a leap from the Hill Country to the coast. My kids and I drove down in a Dodge van down 290 towards H-town from College Station. Snow began to fall as we reached FM1960. We grabbed some lunch and headed to my wife's brother near I-10. But the time we arrived, the streets were mushy and 1-2 inches had stuck on the grass. While we drove down Gaesser, the thermostat stuck. True story - the minivan overheated in the snow on Christmas Eve! There was only on gas/service station open - we limped in and walked to brother in law's pad a few blocks away.

Blew out the #1 cylinder...my wife eventually drove down...and by then were were 3-4 inches of snow on ground. I traded in the Dodge 2 weeks later after it was "fixed." Unforgettable in so many ways.
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:57 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
snowman65 wrote:Just curious but when was the last measurable snowfall in S.E Tx? I'm talking about inches, not just a dusting.


December 2008 brought a round of snow along and S of I-10 with a potent cold core upper low that moved out of San Antonio into Houston. December 2009 brought areas near Sugarland on East 3 to 5 inches. January, February' and early March 1973 is still my benchmark for memorable snow fall across SE Texas. The City was virtually shut down for 2 days in January 11-12, 1973 with some isolated locations receiving 6 to 8 inches. The image below is a reanalysis of the January 11th, 1973 pattern.


Those are 2 of the last 3 real snowfalls in CLL. We had a brief morning snow (not quite an inch) in March 2010(?)...just a few ice pellets since then.
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:01 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Dreary wouldn't be the word I would be looking for. :)


More like Winter-like or Christmas appropriate!


Today was like Melbourne in CLL - 4 seasons in one day. Foggy, then cool, then sunny and warm, now a north wind blowing and cold. We are in the midst of a Godzilla vs. Mothra battle of air masses. The Midwest is becoming locked in a deep freeze. It's going to be a wild roller coaster for the next week.


Chicago's low Wednesday = 0°F with a high of 5°F Thursday. Wind chills of -20°F.
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby Andrew » Tue Dec 13, 2016 7:16 pm

Some impressive dynamics with this next artic blast. Models indicate locations along central and western Texas could see Highs in the 70s on Friday and then 15 degrees the next morning. Dewpoints around here look to go from the 70s to the 20s and 30s in a matter of a couple hours. What also needs to be watched is the presence of an upper level low that will swing around the region early next week. Could see some winter precip over central and western Texas.
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Re: December 2016- Progressive Pattern/Christmas Outlook

Postby StormOne » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:32 pm

Yowza. If this isn't a strong cold front, I don't know what is. On Saturday evening, temperatures ranging from 26 degrees above average near ArkLATex, to >30 degrees below normal in the panhandle. Definitely has the potential to bring areas at least North of I-10 a freeze on Monday morning. Of course when I come back down there in a couple weeks, I will probably be wearing shorts! The wind chill this morning was -7 where I am.

rsz_1rsz_ecmwf_t2m_anom_texas_19.png
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