November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby Katdaddy » Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:52 am

A line of thunderstorms and cool front will push off the Upper TX by late morning bringing beautiful sunny skies for Thanksgiving with highs in the low 70s.
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:49 am

Good to get some storms across the area this morning. The progressive pattern continues to develop as we transition to an active weather regime. Folks need to watch next Monday into Tuesday rather carefully as a deeper trough digs to our West and potent storm system organizes with the potential of severe storms a possibility. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined Eastern Texas and portions of Western Louisiana in their Day 6 Outlook. Meanwhile, Happy Thanksgiving to all!

11232016 SPC Day 6 day6prob.gif


11232016 00Z EC 144 ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_7.png


11232016 06Z GFS 138 gfs_z500aNorm_us_24.png
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby jasons » Wed Nov 23, 2016 10:47 am

.58" here.
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby BlueJay » Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:46 am

It is great cooking weather!
I am grateful for this Weather Forum!
Have a happy Thanksgiving everyone!
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby Ounce » Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:37 pm

jasons wrote:.58" here.

Say it ain't so!
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:10 am

A Happy Thanksgiving! Perfect weather across SE TX today with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 70s today. Clouds begin to increase this evening with the approach of a warm front leading to some isolated showers tonight and Friday mainly to the SW of the Houston-Galveston areas. The warm front will be followed by more nice weather this weekend before the next upper trough and frontal system bring a threat of severe weather Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby cperk » Thu Nov 24, 2016 10:50 am

Happy Thanksgiving to all the forum members and their families.I look forward to discussing the upcoming winter weather with all of you. :)
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Nov 25, 2016 11:54 am

Wow - big whiff on today's forecast.

A wave in front of a weak cold front was completely missed by the models. Surprisingly soggy join CLL.

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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Nov 27, 2016 10:14 am

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Highly active weather pattern to evolve over the next several days.

Isolated severe weather chances including tornadoes on Monday for the NE portions of SE TX.

A strong upper level storm system will dig into the southern plains later today and sweep across TX on Monday. Low level moisture will make a rapid return to the region today into tonight on a 40kt+ low level jet. It will be breezy to windy today into Monday as southerly flow deepens ahead of the incoming storm system. Dry line associated with a deepening surface low over the central plains will approach and cross SE TX Monday from around 800am-200pm. While parameters certainly appear in place for severe weather including strong wind shear and strong lift, capping in the mid levels may prevent storms from developing until roughly the Sabine River and instability is on the lower side (400-1100 J/kg). Updrafts may struggle with the low amounts of instability and strong amounts of wind shear. However any storms that are able to develop will certainly face an environment favorable for severe weather with the most likely sever mode tornadoes. Will favor the NE parts of the area roughly from Galveston to Kingwood to Huntsville for the slight risk of severe weather. The threat becomes much more significant toward deep east TX into Louisiana where capping will be weaker and shear and instability higher…could see a few strong tornadoes across the Sabine River Valley into Louisiana. System may produce very little activity around Matagorda Bay where moisture and capping will be limiting factors.

Dry line moves off the coast Monday evening, but a second strong short wave sweeps across the area on Tuesday with an actual cold front. Moisture looks meager, but lift and dynamics look strong so a few showers and thunderstorms may result. SPC Day 3 Outlooks does have a severe threat for Tuesday just to our south and east and this will need to be watched for any trending of activity toward the NW.

Mid to late week period looks dry and seasonable with cool mornings and mild afternoons under mainly sunny skies.

Next powerful storm system looks to be a slow mover and its impacts begin Saturday and last into early next week. Colder air mass will funnel southward ahead of this cutting off upper level storm over NW MX which will send waves of energy out of the eastern Pacific toward TX. Pattern is favorable for the formation of a strong coastal trough with widespread southerly winds overrunning cold NE surface winds. Pattern looks very wet through the period and model agreement has been high on this system and its prolonged impacts on the region. Highs may struggle to get much above 50 Saturday and Sunday with lows in the mid 40’s…so it is looking cold and wet for the first weekend in December. GFS continues to output some fairly impressive QPF numbers during this period…but this is likely a function of the prolonged overrunning event…although would not discount elevated instability to produce some elevated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Still a lot of details to work out during this period to firm up primary rainfall time and amounts along with surface temperatures.

Day 2 (Monday) Severe Weather Outlook:
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Re: November 2016 -will cooler temps prevail along with rain

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Nov 28, 2016 6:35 am

Thunderstorms pushing across NTX this morning and have remained below severe levels. Showers and few thunderstorms just beginning to develop across N portions of SE TX while streamer showers develop across the Central and S portions of SE TX. The main risk area of severe weather has shifted a little E overnight into LA, SE AR, and MS. Some strong to severe storms will be possible later this morning and into the early afternoon hours across much of SE TX except the SW portion of the area which may receive only a few scattered storms. The storms will push into LA this afternoon as the dry line moves across SE TX bringing clearing skies and very warm upper 70s to low 80s for this time of year.
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