First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

When will the FIRST freeze at IAH occur from November 2016 to February 2017?

Month of November
5
20%
Dec 1-10
7
28%
Dec 11-20
3
12%
Dec 21-31
4
16%
Jan 1-10
0
No votes
Jan 11-20
3
12%
Jan 21-31
0
No votes
Feb 1-10
1
4%
Feb 11-20
1
4%
Feb 21-28
1
4%
 
Total votes : 25

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby StormOne » Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:51 pm

A.V. wrote:Overall, cold-lovers are lucky that the North American continent has such peculiar geography (nothing to block cold air moving south); all it takes is an east-west mountain, or a moderating water body where the plains are, or even a permanent SE ridge, and then Houston (and the rest of the coastal South) would basically be having tropical climates.


Good thing every one of those scenarios are literally impossible!
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:01 pm

StormOne wrote:Good thing every one of those scenarios are literally impossible!


No, the SE ridge can indeed become permanent over Texas and the entire South. And a geographic barrier in the plains can always be built:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/a-phys ... he-midwest
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Sat Dec 17, 2016 5:21 pm

#arcticfail
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby StormOne » Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:56 am

A.V. wrote:#arcticfail


Not so fast ;)
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby Ounce » Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:28 am

Three people have successfully picked Dec 11-Dec 20 as the First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016.

The NWS at IAH reported 32 degrees at 12:53 a.m., this morning. In fact, at 6:53 a.m. it was 30 degrees.

Sunday at 8:53 a.m., the NWS reported 34 as the morning's low, so I wouldn't be surprised for today's 30 degrees to slip a little more. Sunday's low temperature was 33 degrees at 11:53 p.m.
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:06 pm

StormOne wrote:Not so fast ;)


Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:39 pm

A.V. wrote:
StormOne wrote:Not so fast ;)


Still a fail. This arctic mass, which brought intense, record breaking cold to the Midwest (once in a lifetime), and was basically a direct shot into Texas, could barely drop Houston to freezing levels; Galveston, Lake Jackson, etc still remain without a freeze. Once December passes, the axis of cold shifts east, and the arctic blasts won't be Texas centered. On top of that, a warm pattern commences. Thus, this looks like it will be the last cold blast of this caliber for the season. Even with this cold, temps still haven't been below 30F; Houston is about to have another zone 10 winter.


Complete hogwash and you've been trolling other venues with this exact assumption. We can no way determine what the sensible weather will bring beyond 3-5 days and it is foolhardy to assume that before SE Texas enters our most climatological favored period of January into February what the forecast may hold.

Code: Select all
Weather Research Center


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011]

YEAR DATE REMARKS
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing
1965 February 24 Glaze
1968 January 8 Glaze
1970 January 18-19 Glaze
1971 January 7-8 Glaze
1973 January 9-12 Glaze
1973 February 8-9 Glaze
1976 November 28-29 Glaze
1977 January 2  Glaze
1978 January 21-22 Glaze
1982 January 12-14 Glaze
1983 December 22-23 Glaze
1983 December 26 Glaze
1985 January 3 Glaze
1985 January 12-13 Glaze
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze
1988 February 11 Glaze
1989 February 4-8 Glaze
1989 December 22 Glaze
1990 December 22-23 Glaze
1994 February 8-9 Glaze
1997 January 12-14 Glaze
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
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Code: Select all
Houston Snow
 
YEAR DATE Inches
1895 February 14-15 20 
1912 January 12 0.1
1918 January 11 0.2
1925 December 28 0.4
1926 January 26 0.8
1929 December 21-22 2.5
1932 March 10-11 0.8
1940 January 22 3.0
1944 December 10 Trace
1949 January 30 2.6
1958 February 12  Trace
1960 February 12 4.4
1961 January 25 Trace
1961 December 13 Trace
1963 January 14 Trace
1963 February 12 Trace
1964 February 21 Trace
1973 January 11 2.0
1973 February 9-10 1.4
1973 February 17-18 1.4
1978 January 19-20 0.4
1980 February 2 1.4
1981 January 19 Trace
1981 February 11 Trace
1985 January 2 1.0
1985 February 1 0.3
1989 February 6 Trace
1989 December 22 1.7
1994 February 12 0.1
1995 January 2 Trace
1996 December 17 Trace
2004 December 24 Trace
2008 December 10 1.4"
2009 December 4 1.0"
2010 February 23 Trace"
Weather Research Center
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:45 pm

srainhoutx wrote:Complete hogwash and you've been trolling other venues with this exact assumption. We can no way determine what the sensible weather will bring beyond 3-5 days and it is foolhardy to assume that before SE Texas enters our most climatological favored period of January into February what the forecast may hold.

Code: Select all
Weather Research Center


Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011]

YEAR DATE REMARKS
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing
1965 February 24 Glaze
1968 January 8 Glaze
1970 January 18-19 Glaze
1971 January 7-8 Glaze
1973 January 9-12 Glaze
1973 February 8-9 Glaze
1976 November 28-29 Glaze
1977 January 2  Glaze
1978 January 21-22 Glaze
1982 January 12-14 Glaze
1983 December 22-23 Glaze
1983 December 26 Glaze
1985 January 3 Glaze
1985 January 12-13 Glaze
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze
1988 February 11 Glaze
1989 February 4-8 Glaze
1989 December 22 Glaze
1990 December 22-23 Glaze
1994 February 8-9 Glaze
1997 January 12-14 Glaze
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076



Code: Select all
Houston Snow
 
YEAR DATE Inches
1895 February 14-15 20 
1912 January 12 0.1
1918 January 11 0.2
1925 December 28 0.4
1926 January 26 0.8
1929 December 21-22 2.5
1932 March 10-11 0.8
1940 January 22 3.0
1944 December 10 Trace
1949 January 30 2.6
1958 February 12  Trace
1960 February 12 4.4
1961 January 25 Trace
1961 December 13 Trace
1963 January 14 Trace
1963 February 12 Trace
1964 February 21 Trace
1973 January 11 2.0
1973 February 9-10 1.4
1973 February 17-18 1.4
1978 January 19-20 0.4
1980 February 2 1.4
1981 January 19 Trace
1981 February 11 Trace
1985 January 2 1.0
1985 February 1 0.3
1989 February 6 Trace
1989 December 22 1.7
1994 February 12 0.1
1995 January 2 Trace
1996 December 17 Trace
2004 December 24 Trace
2008 December 10 1.4"
2009 December 4 1.0"
2010 February 23 Trace"
Weather Research Center
5104 Caroline St. Houston, Texas 77004
 (713) 529-3076





Go back through this thread, and look at the map I posted. On average, cold temps tend to be focused eastward in the US by January, whereas most of Texas has been through the coldest by December. Occurences of winter precip in certain years does not change that fact.
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:51 pm

The city is very large, so one corner may have had an ice storm, whereas another area just had cold rain. Furthermore, winter precip doesn't necessarily mean coldest temps. In Jan 2007, for instance, Hobby did not freeze for the entire month, and IAH only went down to 32F.

No temps at Hobby below 20F since the end of the 80s. Even this mega arctic blast still failed to bring temps below 32F. The climate is becoming milder and milder.
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Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:57 pm

I post again this fantastic map, which shows the climate warming up:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/sites/r ... -31-hi.jpg
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