First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

When will the FIRST freeze at IAH occur from November 2016 to February 2017?

Month of November
5
20%
Dec 1-10
7
28%
Dec 11-20
3
12%
Dec 21-31
4
16%
Jan 1-10
0
No votes
Jan 11-20
3
12%
Jan 21-31
0
No votes
Feb 1-10
1
4%
Feb 11-20
1
4%
Feb 21-28
1
4%
 
Total votes : 25

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby Andrew » Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:43 pm

Looks like Wxman is going to be close again (assuming the December 9th date occurs like predicted).
For All Things Weather Follow www.facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
Andrew
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 2644
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby tireman4 » Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:09 pm

Hang on..hang on...I am still in play with the 9th..:)
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1380
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 10:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Tue Dec 13, 2016 2:39 am

Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.
User avatar
A.V.
 
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:40 pm

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby StormOne » Tue Dec 13, 2016 8:20 pm

A.V. wrote:Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.


Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
User avatar
StormOne
 
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 9:35 pm
Location: Lincoln, NE

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Fri Dec 16, 2016 2:02 am

StormOne wrote:
A.V. wrote:Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.


Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.


No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.

- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112
User avatar
A.V.
 
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:40 pm

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:40 am

A.V. wrote:
StormOne wrote:
A.V. wrote:Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.


Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.


No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.
- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112



Sigh.... The bolded above couldn't be any further from the truth. Our coldest and most wintry month is February. Heck, March has even brought Winter weather to us a few times in the last decade.
User avatar
MontgomeryCoWx
 
Posts: 688
Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 5:31 pm
Location: Magnolia, TX

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby StormOne » Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:55 am

A.V. wrote:
StormOne wrote:
A.V. wrote:Just watch, Houston will be frostless. If not at Bush, then definitely at Hobby.


Not so fast my friend. This Winter could be an interesting one. Already has been up here- Negatives possible Saturday night with dangerous wind chills. The month of December is not the only cold month, January and February are typically the "cold season" as well.


No, see, these arctic fronts can come in with these cold days and blustery winds, no doubt... but the low temperatures just don't bottom out much. I've seen it time and time again; they call for a freeze, only for temperatures to be only in the lower 40s. They just don't take into account the oceanic return flow that often finds its way into SE Texas after a cold front (either from the Gulf or the E-Pac); this return flow generates the high clouds that trap heat, and hold temps steady. Like with this Saturday's front... lets say temps truly do top out in the mid 40s (which I feel is a bit overdone). Watch the lows then be around 38-39F, instead of close to freezing, due to the aspects described above.

December-February provides a window for cold, but the likelihood varies:

- February, basically, is a spring month in Houston; the only true reliable window for cold is during the early part of the month.

- December mostly starts out warm, and cold patterns usually come into play around the Winter solstice or so; the cold this year is a bit earlier than it has been in previous years.

- January is the only month that is solidly is within the window for cold in Houston... and even then, you can see that past the first week/half of the month, the worst of winter tends to have passed for the city. Thus, if the city hasn't had a freeze by that time, the chances of such temperature decrease exponentially for the season:
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/ ... a-20141112

There are also many times where upper 30s look likely then a freeze happens. Montgomery stated what I was gonna say about the February statement, so I'll ignore that.

A freeze will happen in December. This Winter is just too juicy for a freeze to not happen down there now. Heck, this is bringing us wind chills of -30 tomorrow. Just because we had one continentally warm Winter last year doesn't mean that's the way it is from here on out. Most of the country, even the West Coast, is seeing below normal temperatures. It's time SE TX gets its fair share, and that should start tomorrow night.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
User avatar
StormOne
 
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 9:35 pm
Location: Lincoln, NE

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Fri Dec 16, 2016 11:46 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Sigh.... The bolded above couldn't be any further from the truth. Our coldest and most wintry month is February.


The map I posted above, along with the weather average charts, show how off you are with this post. January (first half of the month) is clearly the coldest, most wintry time of the season. February, on the other hand, is the warmest on average for all the winter months (and has the lowest occurrence of freezes, and warmest average absolute minima), and, for all intents and purposes, is a spring month.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote:Heck, March has even brought Winter weather to us a few times in the last decade.


Average last frost for Houston ranges from early-mid February; at the same time, considering that mid January is the average coldest point of the year, the chances of seeing a freeze for the season, if freezing temps haven't already been reached, is quite slim.

So, like I said, January is the only winter month that is solidly within the window for cold in Houston. Only the early and latter portions of February and December (respectively) are solidly in the reliable cold window; outside of those ranges (like with the month of March), the chance is too slim to be reliable.

StormOne wrote:There are also many times where upper 30s look likely then a freeze happens. Montgomery stated what I was gonna say about the February statement, so I'll ignore that.


Less common than the opposite, from my experience.

StormOne wrote:A freeze will happen in December. This Winter is just too juicy for a freeze to not happen down there now. Heck, this is bringing us wind chills of -30 tomorrow. Just because we had one continentally warm Winter last year doesn't mean that's the way it is from here on out. Most of the country, even the West Coast, is seeing below normal temperatures. It's time SE TX gets its fair share, and that should start tomorrow night.


Well, I'll believe it when I see it.
User avatar
A.V.
 
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:40 pm

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby StormOne » Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:14 am

A.V. wrote:Well, I'll believe it when I see it.


Good god. Last Winter is the first time in IAH's existence that a freeze was not recorded. Once again, last Winter was warm across our entire continent. This Winter is already producing better numbers than last Winter, and we are not technically even in the Winter season yet. Just because Houston was freeze-less last year, doesn't mean Houston will never see a freeze again. Freezes not happening until after Christmas is not necessarily "rare" for Houston.
A transplant from Houston to Lincoln, Nebraska.
User avatar
StormOne
 
Posts: 82
Joined: Thu May 19, 2016 9:35 pm
Location: Lincoln, NE

Re: First Freeze of the ~Winter of 2016

Postby A.V. » Sat Dec 17, 2016 1:33 am

StormOne wrote:Good god. Last Winter is the first time in IAH's existence that a freeze was not recorded. Once again, last Winter was warm across our entire continent.


Actually, IAH recorded two freezes during Jan 2016; however, temps were no lower than 32F. Houston Hobby, on the other hand, was frost-less (and it wasn't the first time).

Last winter saw some pretty cold temps for the Eastern US (especially the Northeast); Texas just happened to avoid the brunt of the blasts.

StormOne wrote:This Winter is already producing better numbers than last Winter, and we are not technically even in the Winter season yet.


I thought it was established that astronomical winter ≠ meteorological winter. Even at that, the December has been colder than normal thus far (meaning it isn't a December that has a high chance of happening). Forecasts show a more zonal flow taking place for January across the US; if that lasts beyond the first half of the month, then one can say with confidence that Houston will not see a freeze for the winter season (based on what I've shown with my map).

StormOne wrote:Just because Houston was freeze-less last year, doesn't mean Houston will never see a freeze again. Freezes not happening until after Christmas is not necessarily "rare" for Houston.


I see that the climate is becoming less and less supportive of true cold, meaning a return to how the climate naturally should be for the latitude. Florida is the state first experiencing the effects, and it will soon spread across the entire Southern US. USDA hardiness zones are getting warmer and warmer across the South:
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/sites/r ... -31-hi.jpg

Overall, cold-lovers are lucky that the North American continent has such peculiar geography (nothing to block cold air moving south); all it takes is an east-west mountain, or a moderating water body where the plains are, or even a permanent SE ridge, and then Houston (and the rest of the coastal South) would basically be having tropical climates.
User avatar
A.V.
 
Posts: 80
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:40 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 1 guest

cron