August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

August 2016: Rain Chances Continue.

Postby Rip76 » Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:35 am

As we head toward the end of July, it looks as if rain chances are at least 30% to end the month.

Will August bring the heat like July, or will we turn our eyes to the tropics for some needed rainfall?
We shall see.

Thoughts?
User avatar
Rip76
 
Posts: 897
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am

Re: August 2016: Looking toward the tropics?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:15 am

The Updated Super Ensemble Analogs for Day 11+ which is centered on August 5th suggest a rather interesting pattern with a large Upper Ridge over the Eastern portion of Canada and the US with general troughiness across the West and lower pressures across our Region. There are indications that a couple of Tropical Waves will begin to trek West across the Atlantic as the Saharan Arid Layer (African Dust) relaxes and conditions become a bit more favorable in the Tropics, particularly in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Atlantic near the Bahamas. We will need to monitor for any potential frontal boundaries that may sag South along the Gulf Coast as such a feature can be a focal point for tropical mischief to spin up quickly and very close to home.
Attachments
07252016 GFS Super Ensemble Day 11+ 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17168
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: August 2016: Looking toward the tropics?

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:54 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The Updated Super Ensemble Analogs for Day 11+ which is centered on August 5th suggest a rather interesting pattern with a large Upper Ridge over the Eastern portion of Canada and the US with general troughiness across the West and lower pressures across our Region. There are indications that a couple of Tropical Waves will begin to trek West across the Atlantic as the Saharan Arid Layer (African Dust) relaxes and conditions become a bit more favorable in the Tropics, particularly in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Atlantic near the Bahamas. We will need to monitor for any potential frontal boundaries that may sag South along the Gulf Coast as such a feature can be a focal point for tropical mischief to spin up quickly and very close to home.


I notice some of those analog dates are interesting. Heavy rain fell on August 15, 2002 and Hurricane Chantal made landfall on August 1, 1989.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
 
Posts: 3078
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm

Re: August 2016: Looking toward the tropics?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jul 27, 2016 11:10 am

The morning Updated Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs are suggesting the possibility of a weak frontal boundary draped across the Gulf Coast with lowering heights across the Western Caribbean and the Gulf and the Upper Ridge situated in a pattern that raise an eyebrow regarding the potential of any future tracks of tropical mischief that may come our way. If a stalled boundary is anywhere near the Gulf Coast, we will need to monitor for the potential of close to home development with little lead time. It's still way out in the future and things will change, but it will be worth following as we begin August.
Attachments
07272016 Day11+ Super Ensemble 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17168
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: August 2016: Looking toward the tropics?

Postby ticka1 » Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:50 am

looks like august might start out with tropical action close or in texas. Stay weather aware.
ticka1
 
Posts: 1214
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu

Re: July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

Postby tireman4 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:54 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 312359
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
659 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.AVIATION...
1 or 2 showers left but are weakening quickly with S to SE winds
of 5-12kts and extensive CI canopy over the CXO/UTS-LFK area.
Repeat of last night for the most part on tap. Patchy MVFR cigs
near CLL after sunrise with landbreeze developing around Galveston
Bay. Soundings and profiles are drier and expect even less
coverage than today so for now will just carry VCSH late afternoon
near IAH and VCTS HOU/SGR early to mid afternoon. Storms should be
fairly isolated in nature. 45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Widely scattered activity noted across central/coastal areas of SE
TX this afternoon. Still expecting these storms to dissipate later
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Per models, this is
likely our last best chances for organized precipitation until the
latter part of the week. Upper level ridge building into and sett-
ling over the region (Mon through Weds) progged to bring drier and
warmer weather to SE TX. Did include max temps near 100F for parts
of CWA (mainly for the NW counties) the next couple of days.

Will continue to keep an eye way out east with the approach of the
tropical wave (s). Latest runs seem to be trending with a stronger
and more persistent upper ridge over the southern U.S. and thereby
keeping the "landfall" of this first tropical wave into areas well
S/SW of us. However...extended progs also keeping with the idea of
drawing the associated deeper Gulf moisture (+2.2" PWs) up towards
SE TX by next weekend. For now not going to change the chance POPS
already in the grids for this time frame. 41

MARINE...
Low pressure in the lee of the Rockies and high pressure over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain a light onshore flow through
the middle of next week. A minor land breeze could develop late
tonight with surface winds briefly veering to the southwest toward
sunrise before backing to the southeast. A tightening pressure
gradient is expected toward the end of next week as low pressure
tracks across the southern Gulf. Swells are expected to propagate
into the coastal waters next weekend and seas will become slightly
elevated. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 100 76 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 78 98 77 98 78 / 10 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 93 82 93 82 / 10 20 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...11
Aviation/Marine...45
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 1642
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas

Re: July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

Postby Heat Miser » Mon Aug 01, 2016 2:52 pm

This drying out pattern has been very wet, at least where I reside.
.
Image
User avatar
Heat Miser
 
Posts: 223
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:48 pm
Location: FM 528 @ I45 border of League City, Webster, Friendswood

Re: August 2016: Looking toward the tropics?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 01, 2016 3:42 pm

The afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook suggests typical early August weather across our Region. That said there are some indications that the Tropics could continue to be active, so be sure to monitor our Hurricane Central section for any additional tropical mischief that may come our way.
Attachments
610analog.off (6).gif
610temp.new (5).gif
610prcp.new (6).gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17168
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

Postby jasons » Tue Aug 02, 2016 11:07 am

Heat Miser wrote:This drying out pattern has been very wet, at least where I reside.

Yeah, y'all down by the coast have been lucky the last few days, but for most of us, the drier forecast has been spot-on. No rain since last Thursday and there has been noticeably less vertical cloud movement each passing day...
jasons
 
Posts: 1676
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Rayford-Sawdust

Re: July 2016: Summertime Pattern To End July

Postby DoctorMu » Tue Aug 02, 2016 12:43 pm

jasons wrote:
Heat Miser wrote:This drying out pattern has been very wet, at least where I reside.

Yeah, y'all down by the coast have been lucky the last few days, but for most of us, the drier forecast has been spot-on. No rain since last Thursday and there has been noticeably less vertical cloud movement each passing day...


It's getting brutal up here. The trees are beginning to suffer. Thursday's rain was the only precip we've had in the last 40 days.


Image


Hoping for a glancing blow or at least moisture and a chance of rain from Earl...
User avatar
DoctorMu
 
Posts: 1029
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station

Next

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest