May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 31, 2016 4:42 pm

mcd0278.gif
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0278
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 312124Z - 010124Z

SUMMARY...COLD POOL AND OUTFLOW GRAVITY WAVES FROM CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH HAS PERTURBED ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE EXPANSION
SOUTHWARD OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HIGH
RATES AND CELL MERGERS.

DISCUSSION...LARGE COMPLEX ACROSS HILL COUNTY HAS GENERATED A
EASTWARD PROPAGATING MCS AS WELL AS GENERATING GRAVITY WAVES THAT
PERTURBED THE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH FOR NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE COMPLEX. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
ILLUSTRATED WELL BY NUMEROUS CU FEEDER BANDS SEEN IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY LEAD TO VERY STRONG 25-30 UNITS OF SURFACE MST CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ALONG THE SW-NE
BOUNDARY THAT BISECTS THE RIO GRANDE IN MAVERICK COUNTY. WITHIN
THIS FEEDER BAND AREA 4500 SBCAPES AND TPWS TO 1.9" ARE QUITE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 2.5"/HR UP TO 4"/HR
IF MST FLUX IS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED DUE TO STORM SCALE
INTERACTIONS...QUICKLY LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS.

WITH PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS TO THE WEST FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
REESTABLISH FURTHER WEST AS WELL DRAWING MOISTURE/FLOW THROUGH THE
COMPLEX TOWARD ANY NEW COMPLEXES ADVANCING FROM THE SIERRA
MADRE...THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF
THE NEXT ROUND LIKELY FOCUSING IT FURTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT COMPARED
TO MUCH OF THE HI-RES CAMS SUGGESTING ROLLING THROUGH BY 06Z. AS
SUCH WILL REASSESS THE CONVECTIVE SETUP LATER.

EAST OF THE COMPLEX ALONG I-10...LOW LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
WEAKER WINDS BELOW 10KTS FROM SFC TO 7H...WITH HIGHER LOW LEVEL
TEMPS (CAPPING) AND LOWER MST AVAILABILITY LEADING TO CAPES BELOW
1500 J/KG (MLCAPES) EAST OF 96W; SHOULD LIMIT HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES AND SUPPORT STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS/FASTER EASTWARD PROPAGATION
LIMITING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...ANY MODERATE RAINFALL
COULD COMPOUNDING ONGOING FLOODING RIVER CONDITIONS ACROSS SE
TEXAS INCLUDING THE COLORADO/TRINITY/BRAZOS RIVERS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby unome » Tue May 31, 2016 6:28 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
542 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Raised PoPs out west as the convective complex over Central Texas continues to edge eastward. HRRR/RAP all continue to weaken the precip as it moves east but reality does not appear to be matching the short term model consensus. Will continue to monitor trends and PoPs may need to be raised further. 43

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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby unome » Tue May 31, 2016 6:42 pm

drone video, NW Harris County https://www.facebook.com/dronetechinc
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby Ounce » Tue May 31, 2016 7:02 pm

I guess May wants to go out like a lion.
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby Rip76 » Tue May 31, 2016 8:31 pm

The old Houston split.

Those storms are getting tired.
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby kayci » Tue May 31, 2016 8:38 pm

Concerned about Brazoria Co. / Alvin.... anyone????
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jun 02, 2016 11:37 am

Code: Select all
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...Preliminary Rainfall Summary for May 26-27 2016...
A series of thunderstorm complexes moving across Southeast Texas
resulted in heavy rainfall leading to flooding during the May 26-27
period. A wide swath of 10 to 20 inch rain totals occurred across
portions of the lower Brazos Valley, with some of the highest totals
for the event observed around Brenham. The NWS Cooperative Weather
observer in Brenham reported a one day total for May 26 of 20.5
inches. Additionally, the Brenham Airport observed a one day
total of 16.62 inches on May 26. This shattered their previous
one day record of 10.38 inches (October 17, 1994) by over 6
inches. Additional rainfall amounts observed during the May 26-27
period across the region are listed below.

Please note: The time the report was last updated is listed.

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Lat/Lon             

...Texas...

...Austin County...
6 NNE Bellville              7.58 in   0700 AM 05/28   30.03N/96.22W       
8 ENE Fayetteville           6.52 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.98N/96.55W       
Bellville                    6.09 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.94N/96.27W       
Mill Creek Near Bellville    5.20 in   1530 PM 05/28   29.88N/96.20W       
San Felipe                   3.18 in   1631 PM 05/28   29.80N/96.12W       
1 NE Wallis                  1.47 in   0800 AM 05/28   29.64N/96.05W       
7 NE Eagle Lake              1.39 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.66N/96.24W

...Brazoria County...
6 SSE Danbury                2.48 in   1628 PM 05/28   29.15N/95.30W       
8 SE Needville               1.61 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.30N/95.74W       
9 SW Jones Creek             1.57 in   1629 PM 05/28   28.86N/95.57W       
1 E Angleton                 0.20 in   1800 PM 05/27   29.17N/95.41W 

...Brazos County...
College Station              8.45 in   1641 PM 05/27   30.60N/96.31W
1 ENE Up429                  7.30 in   2120 PM 05/27   30.56N/96.27W
Bryan Coulter Field          6.35 in   2100 PM 05/27   30.71N/96.33W

...Burleson County...
4 NNW Somerville             14.23 in  1455 PM 05/28   30.40N/96.55W       
1 SSE Somerville             12.62 in  1600 PM 05/28   30.32N/96.53W
Caldwell                     5.33 in   1213 PM 05/28   30.53N/96.71W       

...Chambers County...
1 NNW Mont Belvieu           4.50 in   0800 AM 05/28   29.87N/94.89W       
1 WSW Old River-winfree      2.47 in   1636 PM 05/28   29.87N/94.85W       
3 SSW Mont Belvieu           0.84 in   1639 PM 05/28   29.80N/94.91W       
8 SSW Stowell                0.84 in   1612 PM 05/28   29.67N/94.44W

...Colorado County...
Columbus                     4.18 in   2115 PM 05/27   29.71N/96.54W       
7 E Ellinger                 4.06 in   2110 PM 05/27   29.83N/96.58W       
9 ESE Fayetteville           3.02 in   2109 PM 05/27   29.85N/96.53W       
4 E Weimar                   2.15 in   2118 PM 05/27   29.71N/96.71W       
5 W Eagle Lake               1.39 in   2110 PM 05/27   29.58N/96.42W       
6 S Weimar                   1.32 in   2100 PM 05/27   29.60N/96.77W       
6 NE Eagle Lake              1.01 in   2035 PM 05/27   29.67N/96.27W

...Fort Bend County...
1 SE Missouri City           3.81 in   2110 PM 05/27   29.56N/95.52W       
3 NE Fulshear                3.03 in   2119 PM 05/27   29.74N/95.85W       
3 SSE Katy                   2.91 in   2059 PM 05/27   29.76N/95.80W       
5 W Mission Bend             2.33 in   2105 PM 05/27   29.71N/95.75W       
4 ENE Fulshear               2.20 in   2117 PM 05/27   29.71N/95.82W       
Fulshear - Buffalo Bayou     1.80 in   2030 PM 05/27   29.72N/95.77W       
4 N Pecan Grove              1.70 in   2107 PM 05/27   29.69N/95.74W       
2 S Katy                     1.54 in   2116 PM 05/27   29.76N/95.83W       
4 WSW First Colony           1.32 in   2117 PM 05/27   29.54N/95.67W       
Sugar Land Airport           1.30 in   1700 PM 05/28   29.62N/95.65W
2 SE Richmond                1.15 in   2110 PM 05/27   29.55N/95.73W       
2 NNW Pecan Grove            1.02 in   2114 PM 05/27   29.65N/95.75W       
3 WNW Fulshear               0.34 in   0900 AM 05/27   29.71N/95.94W       
Rosenberg                    0.10 in   1637 PM 05/28   29.55N/95.81W

...Galveston County...
1 ESE Nassau Bay             2.25 in   0800 AM 05/28   29.54N/95.07W
1 NNE League City            1.93 in   2116 PM 05/27   29.50N/95.10W
2 SW Kemah                   1.90 in   2113 PM 05/27   29.51N/95.05W       
Galveston Scholes Field      1.69 in   0218 AM 05/28   29.27N/94.87W
1 WSW Clear Lake Shores      1.58 in   1635 PM 05/28   29.54N/95.05W       
1 W Dickinson                1.33 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.45N/95.09W       
La Marque 1.8 E              1.11 in   0655 AM 05/28   29.36N/94.96W       
Bayou Vista                  0.96 in   0800 AM 05/28   29.33N/94.94W

...Grimes County...
8 SE Navasota                9.80 in   2110 PM 05/27   30.29N/96.00W

...Harris County...
Spring Creek at Kuykendahl  13.36 in   1733 PM 05/28   30.17N/95.55W
Spring Creek at FM 2978     12.36 in   1733 PM 05/28   30.13N/95.60W
Spring Creek at SH249       11.84 in   1733 PM 05/28   30.12N/95.64W
Willow Creek at Kuykendahl   9.32 in   1733 PM 05/28   30.13N/95.55W
Little Cypress at Becker     9.08 in   1733 PM 05/28   30.01N/95.75W
Spring Creek at I-45         8.12 in   1733 PM 05/28   30.11N/95.44W
4 SE Tomball                 7.93 in   1640 PM 05/28   30.05N/95.58W       
5 S Tomball                  7.21 in   1630 PM 05/28   30.02N/95.61W       
3 WSW Spring                 5.70 in   1638 PM 05/28   30.05N/95.44W       
3 S Kingwood                 5.41 in   0700 AM 05/28   30.00N/95.20W       
1 WNW Spring                 5.40 in   1638 PM 05/28   30.07N/95.41W       
7 S Tomball                  5.31 in   1631 PM 05/28   29.99N/95.64W       
7 N Jersey Village           5.17 in   1640 PM 05/28   29.99N/95.59W       
Humble                       4.90 in   1636 PM 05/28   30.00N/95.26W       
7 WSW Spring                 4.82 in   1636 PM 05/28   30.01N/95.50W       
9 WNW Jersey Village         4.78 in   1637 PM 05/28   29.95N/95.71W       
9 SW Tomball                 4.50 in   1417 PM 05/28   29.98N/95.71W       
Houston Intercontinental     4.45 in   1700 PM 05/28   29.97N/95.35W
2 NNW Waller                 4.35 in   1546 PM 05/28   30.09N/95.93W       
6 NNE Jersey Village         4.03 in   1626 PM 05/28   29.98N/95.53W       
9 WNW Jersey Village         3.90 in   1639 PM 05/28   29.95N/95.71W       
5 WNW Jersey Village         3.61 in   1632 PM 05/28   29.91N/95.66W       
1 NNW Hedwig Village         3.55 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.79N/95.53W       
2 WSW Pasadena               3.33 in   1640 PM 05/28   29.65N/95.19W       
6 WSW Jersey Village         3.20 in   1638 PM 05/28   29.87N/95.67W       
1 NE Friendswood             3.13 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.53N/95.18W       
1 NE Houston                 3.12 in   1635 PM 05/28   29.78N/95.37W       
4 SE Tomball                 3.01 in   0800 AM 05/27   30.05N/95.58W       
1 NE Friendswood             2.92 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.53N/95.19W       
1 NNE Houston                2.91 in   1637 PM 05/28   29.79N/95.38W       
1 W Cloverleaf               2.91 in   0600 AM 05/28   29.79N/95.20W       
5 W Jersey Village           2.90 in   1639 PM 05/28   29.90N/95.67W       
1 SSE Hunters Creek Village  2.87 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.75N/95.49W       
4 S Tomball                  2.82 in   0715 AM 05/27   30.03N/95.62W       
5 NW Sheldon                 2.79 in   1630 PM 05/28   29.93N/95.19W       
2 S Houston                  2.79 in   1623 PM 05/28   29.74N/95.39W
Houston Hobby                2.69 in   1700 PM 05/28   29.65N/95.28W       
5 NNW Mission Bend           2.43 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.77N/95.71W       
4 WNW Jersey Village         2.33 in   1637 PM 05/28   29.91N/95.63W       
7 WSW Jersey Village         2.23 in   1632 PM 05/28   29.84N/95.68W               
3 W Bellaire                 1.77 in   1628 PM 05/28   29.69N/95.52W       
5 NW Mission Bend            1.36 in   1627 PM 05/28   29.76N/95.73W       
1 NNW Mission Bend           1.35 in   1636 PM 05/28   29.71N/95.67W       
Piney Point Village          0.35 in   1703 PM 05/25   29.77N/95.51W       
2 W Bellaire                 0.18 in   1634 PM 05/28   29.70N/95.50W       
3 ENE Pearland               0.01 in   0530 AM 05/27   29.58N/95.21W

...Houston County...
Kennard                      8.60 in   2132 PM 05/27   31.36N/95.18W
1 NNE Crockett               8.22 in   0700 AM 05/28   31.34N/95.45W       
Kennard 7n                   7.44 in   1515 PM 05/28   31.49N/95.14W
Crockett                     7.28 in   2132 PM 05/27   31.32N/95.45W       
3 NE Kennard                 6.18 in   1602 PM 05/28   31.39N/95.14W
Midway                       5.96 in   1117 AM 05/27   31.08N/95.70W

...Liberty County...
4 NW Dayton                  12.28 in  1622 PM 05/28   30.11N/94.93W
Dayton                       8.69 in   0700 AM 05/28   30.05N/94.89W
3 NE Splendora               7.98 in   2115 PM 05/27   30.27N/95.13W       
Ef San Jacinto River         6.86 in   2101 PM 05/27   30.34N/95.10W       
Trinity River At Romayer     5.91 in   1631 PM 05/28   30.43N/94.85W       

...Matagorda County...
14 S Sweeny                  1.88 in   1611 PM 05/28   28.84N/95.66W       
2 W Bay City                 0.67 in   1615 PM 05/28   28.97N/96.01W       
9 W Markham                  0.29 in   1610 PM 05/28   28.72N/95.99W

...Montgomery County...
2 S Magnolia                 13.11 in  0700 AM 05/27   30.17N/95.76W       
Panther Branch@gosling Rd    11.80 in  1600 PM 05/28   30.19N/95.48W       
Conroe                       11.22 in  0800 AM 05/28   30.32N/95.46W       
4 NNW Shenandoah             11.20 in  1603 PM 05/28   30.24N/95.48W       
1 SW Oak Ridge North         10.44 in  0700 AM 05/28   30.14N/95.47W
Wf San Jacinto               8.63 in   1630 PM 05/28   30.24N/95.46W       
Spring                       7.95 in   1600 PM 05/28   30.13N/95.48W       
2 ENE Montgomery             7.93 in   1500 PM 05/28   30.41N/95.66W       
4 W Willis                   7.02 in   1532 PM 05/28   30.42N/95.55W       
4 ENE Montgomery             6.85 in   1536 PM 05/28   30.42N/95.63W       
Flamingo Lake                6.00 in   1051 AM 05/28   30.45N/95.70W       
5 NNE Tomball                5.93 in   1639 PM 05/28   30.18N/95.60W       
5 N Cut And Shoot            5.69 in   1631 PM 05/28   30.42N/95.34W       
2 NE Spring                  4.83 in   1639 PM 05/28   30.09N/95.36W       
3 E Spring                   4.40 in   1631 PM 05/28   30.07N/95.33W               

...Polk County...
Leggett                     11.05 in   2132 PM 05/27   30.82N/94.87W
7 ENE Seven Oaks             7.45 in   1629 PM 05/28   30.90N/94.75W       
Onalaska 6 NE                5.76 in   1312 PM 05/27   30.85N/95.03W
Long King Crk At Livingston  5.26 in   1630 PM 05/28   30.72N/94.96W       
Onalaska                     5.12 in   0700 AM 05/28   30.81N/95.12W       
Onalaska                     3.94 in   1100 AM 05/27   30.80N/95.10W       
7 SSE Onalaska               3.13 in   0800 AM 05/27   30.70N/95.08W

...San Jacinto County...
Point Blank                  5.63 in   0800 AM 05/28   30.74N/95.21W       
4 ESE Riverside              4.15 in   1436 PM 05/28   30.83N/95.33W       
4 N Coldspring               1.60 in   1633 PM 05/28   30.66N/95.12W

...Trinity County...
Friday                       8.96 in   1620 PM 05/27   31.10N/95.20W       
White Rock Creek             8.72 in   1214 PM 05/27   31.01N/95.37W       
Trinity 10 E                 6.80 in   1312 PM 05/27   30.95N/95.20W       
5 NW Trinity                 6.57 in   0700 AM 05/27   31.00N/95.42W
Woodlake                     6.25 in   2132 PM 05/27   31.03N/95.05W       
Upper Kickapoo Creek         5.20 in   1551 PM 05/27   31.00N/95.05W

...Walker County...
2 WNW Huntsville             9.27 in   1606 PM 05/28   30.74N/95.59W
Shiro 6 NE                   7.56 in   1342 PM 05/27   30.66N/95.81W       
Harmon Creek                 7.28 in   1413 PM 05/27   30.77N/95.52W
Huntsville Municipal Airport 7.12 in   1700 PM 05/28   30.74N/95.59W       
11 WSW Huntsville            7.03 in   0700 AM 05/28   30.63N/95.71W       
7 ESE Huntsville             6.57 in   1559 PM 05/28   30.65N/95.44W       
Huntsville 9 SW              2.00 in   1446 PM 05/28   30.69N/95.69W

...Waller County...
6 SSW Todd Mission           17.90 in  1618 PM 05/28   30.17N/95.86W
Hempstead                    11.84 in  1522 PM 05/27   30.11N/96.08W

...Washington County...
Brenham Water Treatment      22.57 in  0700 AM 05/28   30.16N/96.40W
Brenham                      19.14 in  0700 AM 05/27   30.16N/96.38W       
Brenham Municipal Airport    18.56 in  2100 PM 05/27   30.22N/96.37W
4 ENE Round Top              13.63 in  0700 AM 05/28   30.08N/96.62W       
8 E Brenham                  13.47 in  0700 AM 05/28   30.16N/96.26W       
8 E Brenham                  13.36 in  0700 AM 05/28   30.16N/96.26W       
Brazos River At Hempstead    10.13 in  1631 PM 05/28   30.13N/96.19W

...Wharton County...
8 SE Eagle Lake              4.52 in   1628 PM 05/28   29.50N/96.22W       
East Bernard                 1.15 in   1611 PM 05/28   29.53N/96.06W       
Wharton                      1.04 in   0700 AM 05/28   29.32N/96.09W       
Wharton                      0.92 in   1615 PM 05/28   29.31N/96.10W       
1 NW El Campo                0.92 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.22N/96.29W       
8 N Ganado                   0.85 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.16N/96.51W       
8 WSW Boling-iago            0.80 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.19N/96.07W       
6 W Wharton                  0.54 in   1610 PM 05/28   29.34N/96.20W       


Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

Huffman
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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