May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 30, 2016 9:46 am

05302016 mcd0786.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0941 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301441Z - 301545Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE TX COAST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ISOLATED EXTENT OF THE
THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT KT20 SURFACE OBSERVATION /ABOUT 30 MI NNW OF
VCT/ REPORTED AT 48 KT GUST NEAR A SMALL BOWING SEGMENT WITHIN LINE
MOVING INTO LAVACA COUNTY. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SUGGESTING FORWARD-PROPAGATION WILL
PERSIST WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. WITH THE LACK
OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...THE OVERALL SVR
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO STAY ISOLATED. SMALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR
THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 05/30/2016


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby srainhoutx » Mon May 30, 2016 9:47 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
939 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

JACKSON TX-WHARTON TX-
939 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON AND JACKSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 AM CDT...

AT 939 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FORDTRAN...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YOAKUM...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDNA...GANADO...POINT COMFORT...LA WARD...LOLITA...OLIVIA...LAKE TEXANA
DAM...MORALES...LOUISE...VANDERBILT AND CORDELE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby djmike » Tue May 31, 2016 9:35 am

Do yall have weather highlights for this weeks upcoming weather? Thanks
Mike
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby djmike » Tue May 31, 2016 9:36 am

Sorry, I always forget to change to the next month. Thought it was awfully quiet.
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby BlueJay » Tue May 31, 2016 9:43 am

After reading the June 2016 thread, it appears that at least May will end on a dry note. Enjoy the day everyone and keep watching the sky!
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 31, 2016 12:14 pm

05312016 mcd0274.gif


MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0274
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX...FAR SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 311700Z - 312300Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW CELL
MOTION WILL PROMOTE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING AND
EXPANDING COVERAGE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS...STRETCHING
FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NORTH TO RED RIVER. ALREADY SEEING NUMEROUS
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS PER THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM...AND THE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSIVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENTERING WEST TX...AS DEPICTED BY A 0856Z AQUA-MODIS PASS...AND
WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FOCUSING A BROADLY DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX CURRENTLY...AND IS
INTERACTING WITH A WELL-DEFINED N/S AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

RAP ANALYSES SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG AND PWATS OF
1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES...WHICH COUPLED TOGETHER WILL BE FAVORING
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES/HR. THIS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FEED WILL BE
REINFORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BY ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING AND
A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FETCH.

THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB BOTH INDICATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL MAY
BE UNDERDOING THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE BASED ON
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS STRONG INSTABILITY FOCUSES SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER AND
DOWN THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY. SEVERAL AREAS OF CELL-MERGERS
AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL RATES FURTHER.

THE GENERAL THINKING IS THAT THE HIRES GUIDANCE IS UNDERDONE WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS IN THE SHORT-TERM. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS...EXPECT RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH 23Z OF 3 TO 6
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE MERGING CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION OCCUR. GIVEN THE LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby tireman4 » Tue May 31, 2016 1:29 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311810
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
Did not make a lot of changes with the 18Z TAFS...especially for
the near term. While there are questions concerning moisture av-
ailability (see 12Z LCH/CRP soundings), feeling more comfortable
with keeping the mention of VCTS for most sites for the remaind-
er of this aftn. Continued development to our west combined with
daytime heating and the seabreeze are all factors we are keeping
an eye on. For tonight, will also keep with lower CIGS vs. lower
VIS given the slowly deepening/strengthening onshore winds. Will
also keep with a VCTS for tomorrow afternoon. 41
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 31, 2016 1:31 pm

Cell mergers continue over Llano where a Mesoscale Convective Vortex has developed. Tremendous rainfall rates are occurring under this complex. Lake Buchanan Dam has opened up another flood gate as well.

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby Rip76 » Tue May 31, 2016 1:59 pm

I guess we should stay on this thread until tomorrow.
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Re: May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby unome » Tue May 31, 2016 4:23 pm

lengthy discussion http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
402 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a short wave trough moving into Texas which has allowed for widespread thunderstorm activity from the NW Hill Country through central Texas. This thunderstorm activity was producing very heavy rainfall in central Texas as it was located within an axis of higher moisture running from south Texas through north central Texas. Some of these storms have produced 2 inches of rain in an hour. Short range hi-res model guidance shows some of this activity possibly reaching the Brazos Valley later this evening before dissipating. The forecast will keep 30-40 percent chances of thunderstorms in the forecast. The main concerns will be heavy rainfall but moderate instability may allow for a strong/severe storm with hail/downburst wind threat.

Day 2-5...Wednesday to Saturday...
This will be the critical time frame for a heavy rainfall threat over SE Texas. There is overall high confidence that there will be rainfall during this time frame across the area but low confidence in where exactly higher rainfall amounts will occur. An upper level low over the Desert SW and NW Mexico will move across the southern Rockies into Texas by Thursday into Friday. This upper level low will be slow moving across the state and likely stall over the Texas Gulf coast and SE Texas on Saturday. An upper level trough over the upper Midwest will drop into the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. This will help shear out the upper low over the Gulf Coast for the weekend. With this NW flow aloft, believe it or not, there will actually be a weak front that pushes through into the Gulf Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty as to if this front actually pushes through but noteworthy nonetheless.

This means that Wednesday through Friday the upper level pattern will be very conducive for heavy rainfall. With the upper level low moving towards the area slowly, upper level winds should decrease and then allow for slow storm motions of under 20 knots. Precipitable water values will range from 1.8 to 2.0 inches during this time. There will also be good inflow from the Gulf with 850mb winds of 20 to 30 knots supporting precipitable water values around 2 inches for Thursday/Friday. By Sunday precipitable water values should be decreasing with possible front passage and likely bring an end to rain chances for early next week. Jet stream flow will become increasingly diffluent and divergent over much of the area which would limit any capping and increase large scale ascent over the region. A frontal boundary pushing into north Texas tonight may not play much of a role in focusing convection for SE Texas but could be where surface low pressure forms along in response to the upper level low moving across Texas. This boundary may contribute to heavy rainfall over central Texas tomorrow and Thursday. Rainfall amounts will be tough to nail down but looking at 2 to 4 inches of rain for the whole area for the next 5 days. The problem will be identifying areas that may be susceptible to isolate higher amounts. This is where the mesoscale evolution is critical but also involves the most non-linearity. Basically mesoscale processes introduce quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast and where the 2 to 4 inches of rainfall become 6 to 8 inches rather quickly especially if higher rain rates can be achieved. Mesoscale QPF forecasting will be the main problem as evidenced by recent heavy rainfall/flood events. Flash flood watch will likely be needed but will wait to see how the atmosphere evolves the next 24 to 36 hours. Watch may be issued sometime tomorrow likely for the Thursday/Friday time frame.

Overpeck

&&

.MARINE...
No real change with the forecast of generally light/moderate onshore winds and low seas through much of the week. A series of upper level disturbances are forecast to move overhead from mid week on into the end of the week... and interact with a weak cold front that is expected to stall over inland portions of SE TX. This pattern should help to produce periods of unsettled weather during this time. Winds/seas in and near this activity will be elevated. Otherwise there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to timing of the storms, and if the frontal boundary is able to move offshore. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 83 70 80 68 / 40 70 70 70 70
Houston (IAH) 72 85 71 82 70 / 10 60 50 70 70
Galveston (GLS) 77 83 77 83 75 / 10 30 40 60 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...39
Aviation/Marine...41
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