May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

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May 2016: Shower/Storm Chances To End May

Postby ticka1 » Sun Apr 24, 2016 11:20 am

Will our wet pattern continue into May? Or will April showers bring May flowers?
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Apr 24, 2016 3:50 pm

The afternoon Updated quantitative precipitation forecast continues to suggest a potential Heavy Rainfall Event may be ahead, particularly next weekend into the early days of May. We encourage everyone to monitor the weather carefully this week as we receive more data and fine tune the sensible weather forecast.
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby djjordan » Sun Apr 24, 2016 6:57 pm

Even if it is upstream, that doesn't bode well for us here in SE Texas, so yes stay tuned to forecasts this week.
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:09 pm

The 04/25/2016 12Z GFS suggests total quantitative precipitation totals generally ranging from 2-5 inches across the Region with some isolated totals nearing 8 inches mainly N and E of Metro Houston. It is still too soon to know with any certainty exactly where and what neighborhoods the heavier rainfall may occur, so we encourage everyone to monitor the updates daily as additional information/data becomes available.
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04252016 12Z GFS 192 qpf_acc_us_sc.png
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:33 pm

The afternoon updated quantitative precipitation forecast for the next 7 days which takes us into the beginning of May suggests more unsettled weather could persist into the new Month. Also we are 40 days away from the beginning of Hurricane Season/2016 for the North Atlantic Basin and the ENSO update issued this morning suggests we are indeed well on the way to transitioning toward a La Nina pattern. Often during the transitioning of Global weather patterns we experience volatility with extended periods of unsettled weather. In the days ahead we will begin to focus on what potentials for Tropical Troubles could be ahead particularly for the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Look for a new Topic in the days ahead where we will attempt to outline what we may expect this Summer when all eyes turn to the Tropics.

p168i (12).gif
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:49 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The afternoon updated quantitative precipitation forecast for the next 7 days which takes us into the beginning of May suggests more unsettled weather could persist into the new Month. Also we are 40 days away from the beginning of Hurricane Season/2016 for the North Atlantic Basin and the ENSO update issued this morning suggests we are indeed well on the way to transitioning toward a La Nina pattern. Often during the transitioning of Global weather patterns we experience volatility with extended periods of unsettled weather. In the days ahead we will begin to focus on what potentials for Tropical Troubles could be ahead particularly for the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Look for a new Topic in the days ahead where we will attempt to outline what we may expect this Summer when all eyes turn to the Tropics.

p168i (12).gif



Some of the wettest years happened in El Nino to La Nina years like 1973, 1983, and 2007. Floods occurred in the summer in 1973 and 2007.
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby BlueJay » Tue Apr 26, 2016 7:13 pm

I'm thinking about May flowers with just enough rain to keep them alive...
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:30 am

Starting to get a bit concerned that a pesky frontal boundary may linger across SE Texas as we begin May and head into early next week. The 12Z GFS is suggesting some locations may see near 6 inches of rainfall where it is not needed. This includes the Friday and Saturday timeframe, but if the GFS is correct additional heavier rainfall could regenerate late Sunday into Tuesday of next week. We will need to watch the latest trends to see if this pesky upper pattern continues to send impulses across our area into next week.
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04272016 12Z GFS 168 qpf_acc_us_sc.png
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Re: May 2016 Weather -will the current pattern continue?

Postby wxman57 » Wed Apr 27, 2016 11:55 am

I'm not seeing much change to the overall weather pattern across the southern U.S. through the next couple of weeks. Chance of more heavy rain on Saturday, but nothing like last week's flood.
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Re: May 2016: Unsettled Weather Through Tuesday Then Drier

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Apr 30, 2016 11:28 am

The 12Z GFS suggests generally 1 to 3 inches of additional rainfall may be possible Sunday through Tuesday.
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04302016 12Z GFS 84 qpf_acc_us_sc.png
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