March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:06 am

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL BASTROP...CALDWELL...EAST CENTRAL COMAL...TRAVIS...
NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND HAYS COUNTIES...

AT 201 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR AUSTIN TO NEAR NIEDERWALD TO NEAR STAPLES...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...SAN MARCOS...LOCKHART...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING SPRINGS...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP...KYLE...LAKEWAY...BUDA...LAGO VISTA...
CANYON LAKE...MANOR...BEE CAVE...WEST LAKE HILLS...THE HILLS...WOODCREEK...
ROLLINGWOOD...MARTINDALE AND UHLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:21 am

Line of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing Large Hail, Continuous Lightning, Gusty Winds, are approaching from the west. EWX issues new Severe T-storm Warning ....

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC021-055-149-177-287-453-240800-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0047.160324T0716Z-160324T0800Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
216 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 300 AM CDT


* AT 215 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANOR TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LULING...MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...LOCKHART...ELGIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...SMITHVILLE...
SCHULENBURG...FLATONIA...LEXINGTON...MANOR...WAELDER...MUSTANG RIDGE...
FEDOR...ROSANKY...PAIGE...CEDAR CREEK...MULDOON...CIRCLE D-KC ESTATE AND
WYLDWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 9688 2974 9768 3038 9761 3042 9736
3040 9733 3043 9726 3048 9691 3046 9690
3046 9688 3043 9687 3043 9685 3039 9679
3034 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 0715Z 262DEG 39KT 3030 9752 2979 9759

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

CP
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 2:58 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
256 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ163-164-176-195>199-210-211-240900-
MADISON TX-TRINITY TX-GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-BURLESON TX-COLORADO TX-
HOUSTON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
256 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HOUSTON...BURLESON...
COLORADO...WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN WALKER...NORTHERN GRIMES...
BRAZOS...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...MADISON...NORTHWESTERN AUSTIN AND
SOUTHWESTERN TRINITY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 254 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN TO 9 MILES WEST OF
LEXINGTON TO NEAR SMITHVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF GONZALES.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...MADISONVILLE...CALDWELL...BELLVILLE...
COLUMBUS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...BEDIAS...KURTEN...
INDUSTRY...BURTON...WIXON VALLEY...MILLICAN...KYLE FIELD...LAKE SOMERVILLE
DAM AND IOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:02 am

Not in our immediate County Warning Area but worth putting out there due to the severity of this particular storm.....


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
254 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN ATASCOSA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 254 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEARSALL...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...JOURDANTON...POTEET...CHARLOTTE...CHRISTINE...
MOORE...GOLDFINCH...NORTH PEARSALL...WEST PEARSALL...SCHATTEL...LEMING...
DOBROWOLSKI...DAVIS...AMPHION...THREE OAKS AND COUGHRAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THIS THUNDERSTORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL TYPES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY TO A SAFE SHELTER...SUCH AS AN
INTERIOR ROOM...A BATHROOM OR CLOSET OR BASEMENT.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:08 am

These storms are just now about to enter our Western County Warning Area and do have a history of being Severe .... Not severe at the moment but we will monitor it for any intensification.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ193-194-205-207>209-220>225-240900-
WILSON TX-GUADALUPE TX-DE WITT TX-KARNES TX-ATASCOSA TX-FAYETTE TX-
BASTROP TX-GONZALES TX-CALDWELL TX-BEXAR TX-LAVACA TX-LEE TX-
301 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN BEXAR...
KARNES...BASTROP...CALDWELL...DEWITT...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...LEE...
WILSON...LAVACA AND EASTERN ATASCOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 301 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO NEAR
MULDOON TO MCQUEENEY TO 8 MILES NORTH OF STOCKDALE TO 8 MILES SOUTH
OF ELMENDORF...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW BRAUNFELS...SEGUIN...LOCKHART...GONZALES...BASTROP...CUERO...
FLORESVILLE...YOAKUM...LULING...GIDDINGS...LA GRANGE...SMITHVILLE...KENEDY...
KARNES CITY...SCHULENBURG...HALLETTSVILLE...YORKTOWN...SHINER...POTH AND
STOCKDALE.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:14 am

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
311 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL KARNES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL DEWITT COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
GONZALES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...


* UNTIL 400 AM CDT

* AT 310 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SEGUIN TO 8 MILES NORTH OF NIXON TO NEAR
PANDORA...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SEGUIN...GONZALES...LULING...NIXON...WAELDER...SMILEY...CHEAPSIDE...
HOCHHEIM...KINGSBURY...PANDORA...PALMETO...GERONIMO...BROWNSBORO...
WRIGHTSBORO...BELMONT...DREYER...THOMPSONVILLE...MONTHALIA...OTTINE AND
TILMON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby unome » Thu Mar 24, 2016 3:57 am

should be a lightning show per HGX https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/with_replies

from http://lightning.nmt.edu/hstnlma/rt.php ... &density=1
Image

Southern Region Twitter list https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/lists/n ... ern-region

Image

(velocity not updating after 318 AM, so I removed image) http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0S/HGX_loop.gif

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240752Z - 241015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/
INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS...
WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT
ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE
MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND
SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED
WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED
PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE
WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN
PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED
ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO
EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
Last edited by unome on Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:30 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
429 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ197>199-211>213-227-241030-
GRIMES TX-AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-HARRIS TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
FORT BEND TX-
429 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
WALLER...SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES...SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN
HARRIS...EASTERN AUSTIN AND NORTHWESTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES UNTIL 530
AM CDT...

AT 429 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PINE ISLAND...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF HEMPSTEAD...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONROE...KATY...TOMBALL...JACINTO CITY...JERSEY VILLAGE...SEALY...
HEMPSTEAD...PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE...BUNKER
HILL VILLAGE...PINEY POINT VILLAGE...PINEHURST...SPRING VALLEY...GREATER
FIFTH WARD...SPRING BRANCH WEST...GREATER GREENSPOINT...ADDICKS PARK
TEN...GREATER HEIGHTS AND NEAR NORTHSIDE HOUSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby djjordan » Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:34 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
432 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

TXZ210-211-226-227-241000-
AUSTIN TX-COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-FORT BEND TX-
432 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WHARTON...SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO...SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN AND WEST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 AM CDT...

AT 432 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES EAST OF SUBLIME...OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE LAKE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAGLE LAKE...EAST BERNARD...WALLIS...KENDLETON...EGYPT...GARWOOD...
HUNGERFORD AND NADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
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Re: March 2016 - Prgressive Changeable Weather To End The We

Postby unome » Thu Mar 24, 2016 5:05 am

and it is... http://en.blitzortung.org/live_dynamic_maps.php?map=31

unome wrote:should be a lightning show per HGX https://twitter.com/NWSHouston/with_replies

from http://lightning.nmt.edu/hstnlma/rt.php ... &density=1
Image

Southern Region Twitter list https://twitter.com/Geostrophic/lists/n ... ern-region

Image

(velocity not updating after 318 AM, so I removed image) http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0S/HGX_loop.gif

Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SE TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 240752Z - 241015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FROM
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA DURING PRE-DAWN
HOURS. WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/
INTENSIFICATION TO THE CONTRARY.

DISCUSSION...BEST-ORGANIZED SMALL-SCALE COLD POOL AND POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS APPEAR TO BE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EWD OUT OF AUS...
WHERE 58-KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT 707Z. OTHER CONVECTION NEAR SAT
ALSO MAY PRODUCE MRGL-SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY STG/DAMAGING GUSTS WHILE
MOVING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND S OF I-10 DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY OUTFLOW
FROM AUS-AREA COMPLEX. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS BEHIND
SHALLOW...PREFRONTAL...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL
TEND TO AUGMENT SFC STATIC STABILITY AND LIMIT ACCESS TO UNMODIFIED
WARM-SECTOR AIR WHERE MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS ARE COMMON.
ALSO...OUTFLOW/WIND-SHIFT LINES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VEERED
PRECONVECTIVE FLOW AND RELATED REDUCTION IN STORM-RELATIVE NEAR-SFC
WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

STILL...FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH INITIALLY PREFRONTAL TSTMS IN
THIS CORRIDOR...PERHAPS REINFORCED FROM REAR BY FRONTAL CAA WEDGE
WITH TIME...MAY HELP CONVECTION TO PERSIST DEEPER THAN INDICATED BY
OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED CINH FIELDS ALONE...INTO MORE STRONGLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE TX. 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD BE COMMON IN
PRECONVECTIVE SETTING...AMIDST 30-45-KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT DO NOT APPEAR CONVECTIVELY MODULATED
ALSO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AROUND 700 MB TIMED CLOSE TO
EXTRAPOLATED ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION AT VARIOUS LOCALES ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA.

..EDWARDS/DIAL.. 03/24/2016


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
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