March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

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March 2016 - Progressive Changeable Weather To End The Month

Postby ticka1 » Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:27 pm

With Spring's early arrival and increase in severe weather? March 1st is one week away.
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby Electric Lizard » Mon Feb 22, 2016 7:33 pm

My car club will be holding our annual race at Texas World Speedway in College Station March 4-6. Weather plays an important part in many facets of this outdoor event. How's it look?
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:36 am

The overnight computer guidance is suggesting another potent shortwave diving SE into our Region next week. While the European model is a tad faster with the cold upper trough arriving across Texas, the ensembles do indicate another active storm system may organize bringing another round of potentially severe weather near the 2nd or 3rd of March, +/- a day or two.
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Feb 27, 2016 9:31 am

It's good to be home from a very dry Southern California. The weather was actually a bit warmer there and we have currently in Houston and very dry, but visibilities were unusually good along the entire flight path. The flight home was very uneventful with absolutely no weather issues. I did notice that things are greening up across West Texas and the Hill Country Lakes are in much better shape than the last time I flew over Central Texas a year ago last January. Rain chance this week look rather minimal with the next storm system passing well to our N. The Climate Prediction Center does indicate in their Day 8 to 14 Outlook issued yesterday that above normal precipitation may be likely as the MJO is fully into Phase 8 which suggests a wetter and active period for the Eastern Pacific and the Western Hemisphere.

02272016 10Z 5 Day QPF p120i.gif

02262016 CPC Day 8 to 14 814prcp_new.gif

02272016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

02272016 MJO 28.gif
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:44 am

More Spring-like weather through the week and next weekend with highs in the 70s. The SPC has a slight risk area over OK tonight and a large slight risk area Tuesday across portions of the Lower MS, TN, and OH valleys eastward into the Central and S Appalachians. A marginal risk also exists for E, SE, and S TX on Tuesday. Currently only a slight chance of thunderstorms Tuesday for the Houston-Galveston areas but its possible there may be a few strong storms. Nice weather to continue through the rest of the week and weekend with only a slight chance of showers Thursday. This morning's Houston-Galveston AFD mentions a slow moving potent storm system next week.
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:11 am

The overnight ensembles are beginning to suggest a rather big shift in the upper air pattern across North America. We have been under the influence of a rather stout Western/Central Ridge and the ensemble guidance is indicating a rather deep Western trough takes shape early next week with a couple of slow moving shortwaves that typically suggest a wet and potentially stormy pattern may develop. The MJO is in a favorable Phase 8 for the Eastern Pacific and the Western Hemisphere where we live, so we could see an active weather pattern begin to organize as there are no strong cold fronts expected to sweep well out into the Gulf. Pacific air should invade the West Coast later this week setting the stage for a potentially rainy period across the Western 2/3rds of Lower 48.
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02292016 00Z Euro EPS 192 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png
02292016 06Z GEFS 192 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_33.png
02292016 CPC Day 8+ Super Ensemble 500hgt_comp_sup610.gif
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby jasons » Mon Feb 29, 2016 4:20 pm

Was really hoping for rain tomorrow. At one time it was 60% for me, but it's been 20% for the last three days and not budging....
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby BlueJay » Mon Feb 29, 2016 5:24 pm

David Paul says we may need our umbrella to go vote tomorrow but should clear by 3'ish in the afternoon
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Mar 01, 2016 5:48 am

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A slight chance of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon as the next front moves across SE TX which will be followed by more beautiful Spring weather. Highs may reach 80F Thursday before another front drops the highs to the mid 70s for the weekend under sunny skies. A slight risk area exists across the Lower MS Valley, OH Valley, and Central Gulf Coast this afternoon. A pattern change next week could bring flooding and severe weather across the Southern Plains including TX. The Spring severe weather season is here and Winter has left the building.
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Re: March 2016 - Will March Madness continue

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Mar 01, 2016 8:16 am

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Weak cold front will cross the region today helping to bring temperatures back toward “normal”.

Upper air pattern with storm track well north of TX will allow a weak frontal boundary to cross the region today. Moisture is limited to the lowest levels of the atmosphere and the air mass is capped at the 800mb level which makes it hard for the formation of showers and thunderstorms. Would not be surprised to see a thin line of showers with the front, but expecting actual rainfall amounts to be less than .25 of an inch.

Drier and cooler air mass filters into the region tonight with lows falling back into the more normal 40’s and 50’s instead of the 60’s of late and highs in the lower 70’s instead of the lower 80’s. Similar weather will continue for the rest of the week and into this weekend with another front on Thursday afternoon.

Looking ahead, an upper level pattern change does appear to at least become a possibility toward the early to middle part of next week as an upper level trough develops over the SW US and into N MX. This will help draw deeper moisture into the region and allows a storm system to track across TX around next Tuesday and Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been showing this storm system for several days and producing healthy amounts of rainfall and possibility severe weather…however trends of late have been for storm systems to actually track more northward and rainfall and severe weather to be displaced to our east and north. Will need to watch for such trend going forward, but the time period from the 8-10 could be fairly active.
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