February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

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February 2016: Quiet Warm Weather To End The Month

Postby ticka1 » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:26 am

Or will we continue to see a mild winter and early Spring? :roll:
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:55 am

The Climate Prediction Center Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs centered on February 1st suggest many dates that brought a glaze of ice to Houston during February. It serves as a reminder that winter is not over just yet. We still have to get through February before we begin to look forward to Spring and Hurricane Season 2016.

01212016 CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif


Graphics comes courtesy of the Weather Research Center at the Houston Weather Museum where we have many followers:

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Houston Ice Storms [1960-2011]

YEAR DATE REMARKS
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing
1965 February 24 Glaze
1968 January 8 Glaze
1970 January 18-19 Glaze
1971 January 7-8 Glaze
1973 January 9-12 Glaze
1973 February 8-9 Glaze
1976 November 28-29 Glaze
1977 January 2  Glaze
1978 January 21-22 Glaze
1982 January 12-14 Glaze
1983 December 22-23 Glaze
1983 December 26 Glaze
1985 January 3 Glaze
1985 January 12-13 Glaze
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze
1988 February 11 Glaze
1989 February 4-8 Glaze
1989 December 22 Glaze
1990 December 22-23 Glaze
1994 February 8-9 Glaze
1997 January 12-14 Glaze
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze
2011 February 4 Freezing Rain/Glaze

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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 21, 2016 2:59 pm

Analog-schmanalog! I got flowers and plants blooming here in Austin and they think it's March already. :D

"Winter" has been a no-show here in Austin. I hope that changes soon. We can't even get any rain as El Nino shut off its spigot around Christmas (at least for us).
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jan 22, 2016 9:48 am

The morning Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs as well as the Teleconnection Indices suggest the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are relaxing back toward a neutral state. The combination of the negative AO/+PNA/-NAO regime likely assisted in the development of the big East Coast Nor'easter underway today as well as other Hemispheric Patterns. If the Teleconnection Indices issued today are correct, another episode of a negative AO may begin around February 1st +/- a couple of days setting the stage for another Hemispheric Pattern Change. Some of the longer Range guidance are beginning to sniff out changes across our source Regions of Eastern Alaska/NW/Central Canada with much colder temperature departures than we have seen so far this Winter Season. The Madden Julian Oscillation appears to be rather dormant at this time, but may begin another round of a fairly high amplitude orbit once again over the next several days. We will have to see if these Hemispheric Pattern features do indeed usher in another pattern change during the climatological favored Winter Weather period for our Region. Time will tell.

01222016 CPC Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif


01222016 AO ao_sprd2.gif


01222016 Tele Indices 4panel.png


01212016 MJO ALL_emean_phase_full.gif
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby Portastorm » Fri Jan 22, 2016 11:16 am

Thanks for the upate, srain.

Over the last approximate 120 years, Austin has recorded 51 snowfalls. Some of the largest ones have occurred in February, including the last snowfall of significance (1" or more) which happened on Valentines Day 2004 ... when 1.6" fell on the city.
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:45 am

The overnight Ensembles, Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs and the Teleconnection Indices are suggesting we may begin February with a rather significant storm system as a deep Western trough organizes and heights build across Western/Central Alaska. The coldest temperature departures (nearing -15 to -20 anomalies )we have seen this Winter is showing up across NW/Western and Central Canada. That coincides with the Arctic Oscillation returning to a negative regime as well as other indictors becoming a bit more favorable for delivering a cold shot into our Region. The operational models have been flirting with the idea of a big Winter Storm crossing New Mexico, Texas, The Southern/Central Plains and heading toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area during that timeframe. We will see if these indicators do indeed verify as we head into he late next week timeframe and get closer to the first days of February.

01232016 00Z ECMWF EPS 240 ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png


01232016 00Z GEFS 240 gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png


01232016 CPC Super Ensemble Day 11+ Analogs 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif


01232016 AO ao_sprd2.gif


01232016 Tele Indices 4panel.png
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:35 pm

Later winter has some pretty big freezes. February has had big freezes and snow events. The February 1895 snow event and February 1899 freeze come to mind.
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby cisa » Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:13 pm

When I was a kid, late January into Feb. used to always seem like the coldest and wettest of the winter. It hasn't been such in recent years, but that's how I remember it in the 60's and 70's.
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:51 am

The overnight Ensembles and Teleconnection Indices as well as other Hemispheric Pattern indicators are suggesting the early February timeframe may well be worth monitoring. A rather robust Wave 1 episode at the Stratospheric 10mb level is being indicated by the ECWMF Ensembles. There are rather significant hints that the Polar Vortex will warm rapidly suggesting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is well underway and could bring a big shot of cold air into Western/Central Canada in about 7 days. The Ensembles do indicate this cold shot of Arctic air infiltrating the Canadian Prairies as a heights rise rather rapidly over Alaska and the presence of the Aleutian Low is gone. There is also a chance of a big Winter Storm moving out of the Desert SW/Southern Rockies during the first days of February which continues to be rather well advertised by the computer model schemes. In the wake of this storm, some of the coldest air of the season may plunge into the Plains and possibly Texas as it should be dense. We will see if all the indicators are correct and if the warmer temperatures of slightly above normal as January ends begins a cold February for our Region.

01242016 00Z Euro EPS 240 ecmwf-ens_z500a_sd_namer_11.png


01242016 Euro EPS 240 ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png


01242016 06Z GEFS 234 gfs-ens_z500a_sd_namer_40.png


01242016 Euro EPS 240 ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png


01242016 CPC Day 11+ Super Ensembles 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif


01242016 AO ao_sprd2.gif


01242016 Tele Indices 4panel.png


Image Courtesy of Dr. Mike Ventrice via twitter:
01242016 00Z ECMWF 10mb 180 untitled.png
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Re: February 2016 Will Winter Arrive?

Postby texoz » Sun Jan 24, 2016 1:24 pm

So far at Camp Mabry in Austin we have only had two freezes of 32 and 31 degrees. Hoping for at least one hard freeze for most of central & south Texas toward the end of February to kill off any residual mosquitos.
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