January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby DoctorMu » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:33 pm

BlueJay wrote:Maybe I'm overreacting, but I brought in my big potted Boston fern tonight. Brrrrr! Windy and cold out there!!


The low and advection are overperforming.

Temps in the upper 20s tonight in CLL
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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby srainhoutx » Sat Jan 23, 2016 9:02 am

Coldest morning of the Winter Season here in NW Harris County. I dropped to 30F and stayed below freezing for 3 hours. Heavy frost all the way to the ground and both bird baths are frozen solid.
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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby BlueJay » Sat Jan 23, 2016 11:25 am

Our temp was 32F this morning. Cold enough.
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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby unome » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:49 pm

I saw this posted on Twitter, never even thought to look at it for a blizzard :o

200 image loop: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... -N0U-1-200
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Last edited by unome on Sun Jan 24, 2016 5:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: January 2016: Upper Trough/Tuesday Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:23 am

Another chilly early morning across NW Harris County with temperatures flirting with 33F. The overnight guidance has trended slightly wetter beginning Tuesday as a potent little vort max at the base of the upper trough over Mexico begins to organize. Another strong cold front is expected to drop South across Texas early on Tuesday and bring over running precipitation inland with a chance of storms over the Coastal waters as a weak Coastal wave organizes in response to the approaching upper low/trough. Light snow may develop Tuesday afternoon across the Del Rio and Edwards Plateau in response to upglide ahead of me compact vort max, but chances of anything wintry actually making it to the surface appear too slim to forecast as of this morning. There is some concern with the upper trough still to our West on Wednesday and cold air advection continuing as well as the increase of moisture noted in the guidance, Wednesday may be cloudy cold and dreary across the area. If clouds do clear out Wednesday afternoon, some inland locations may experience yet another light freeze.That said the trends the past 24 hours have increased precipitation chances via all the reliable computer guidance, so we will continue to monitor the next day or two. After this weather maker, we should see a benign weather pattern to end the month of January with a slight warming trend.
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Re: January 2016: Upper Trough/Monday-Tuesday Cold Front

Postby Heat Miser » Sun Jan 24, 2016 12:45 pm

Personally enjoyed the thunderstorms we had this month. From my perspective it's been a benign winter thus far for winter weather enthusiast, which isn't me. Not even in the same league as winter 2013/14, which was cold. Srain I see you've started a February thread, very telling. :lol:
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Re: January 2016: Upper Trough/Monday-Tuesday Cold Front

Postby DoctorMu » Sun Jan 24, 2016 2:47 pm

Conroe came ion at 29° for the low. We had frost, and at the edge of town are a couple of degrees cooler than the airport.

Coolish last 3 weeks but not cold by last winter's standards. No hard freezes yet - I like a few to keep the insects down. Surprisingly dryish in the new year up here...but super El Nino's jump the shark and don't conform to comparisons with other winters.
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Re: January 2016: Upper Trough/Monday-Tuesday Cold Front

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Jan 25, 2016 6:34 am

Next front to arrive early tomorrow Tuesday morning dropping the high temps in the 50s and low temps into the 40s and upper 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for showers and light rain increase this afternoon into Tuesday morning mainly along the Upper TX Coast. On Thursday temps begin to slowly rise under sunny skies.
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Re: January 2016: Upper Trough/Monday-Tuesday Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:39 am

Looks like a fantastic weekend along the entire Gulf Coast for all Mardi Gras Festivities. Pleasant late January temperatures and no rain to worry about.
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Re: January 2016: Upper Trough/Monday-Tuesday Cold Front

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:41 am

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold front will cross the region tonight returning cold air, clouds, and rain for Tuesday.

Upper level pattern has become more zonal (west to east) following the historic weekend blizzard along the US east coast. An upper level system passing over the Midwest this morning will push a frontal boundary into the region tonight. This front will be slow moving….reaching CLL around sunset and not clearing the coast until tomorrow morning. South of this boundary southerly winds will continue to advect moisture northward into the region with both temperatures and dewpoints running a solid 10-20 degrees warmer this morning than yesterday. Dewpoints may begin to push above nearshore water temperatures by late today resulting in the formation of a dense sea fog bank especially this evening as winds weaken ahead of the frontal boundary. In addition to the fog threat…scattered light rain and showers will be possible over much of the region along and ahead of the front this afternoon and tonight.

Cold air advection behind the front will be decent with temperatures likely falling into the 40’s tonight and struggling to reach the lower 50’s on Tuesday. Upper level flow from the WSW/SW will allow moist air to surge up and over the shallow frontal slope resulting in a continued chance of mainly light rains on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Will focus the greatest coverage and amounts south of I-10 where the best moisture will be found. Totals could range from .25-.75 of an inch across the coastal counties with lesser amounts inland. It will be cold on Tuesday with north wind, clouds, and rain.

850mb front should clear the coast early Wednesday allowing more significant drying to move into the region. This will clear the skies and end rain chances. Low dewpoint air mass (20’s and 30’s) will set the stage for near freezing conditions over much of the area by Thursday morning. Think northern and central counties will likely see another light freeze (29-32) on Thursday morning.

Sustained warming trend will commence on Thursday afternoon and last into the weekend with highs likely into the mid 70’s by Saturday and Sunday and lows pushing toward 60 under increasing onshore flow ahead of the next storm system due into the area by the early part of next week.
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