January 2016: Mardi Gras WX Outlook

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: January 2016: Rain/Storm Chances/ Freeze Possible Late W

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:07 pm

01212016 mcd0033.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211659Z - 211900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SE TX AND WRN TO CNTRL LA WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1012 MB SFC LOW TO THE
NORTH OF HOUSTON WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE
LOW. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL
LA WITH THE WARM SECTOR LOCATED IN SE TX AND SCNTRL LA. SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN CNTRL
LA TO THE MID 60S F NEAR THE LA COAST. SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO
THE 60S F ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HELPING TO INCREASE INSTABILITY.
MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF SW
LA AND ACROSS MOST OF SE TX. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SFC LOW DEEPENS AND THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. THE MID-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOWING 50 TO 55 KT
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES
NEAR 250 M2/S2 SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM SHOULD ALSO
BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
WITH ROTATING STORMS OR SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016


ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: January 2016: Rain/Storm Chances/ Freeze Possible Late W

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:36 pm

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1131 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CST

* AT 1131 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEVEN
OAKS...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF LIVINGSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CORRIGAN...SEVEN OAKS...MOSCOW AND LEGGETT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: January 2016: Rain/Storm Chances/ Freeze Possible Late W

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:45 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-SAN JACINTO TX-LIBERTY TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
1141 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BRAZORIA...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...EASTERN HARRIS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CST...

AT 1139 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT CLEVELAND TO SOUTH HOUSTON...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...NORTHERN PEARLAND...NORTHERN LEAGUE CITY...BAYTOWN...
NORTHEASTERN FRIENDSWOOD...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...JACINTO CITY...WEBSTER...LIBERTY...
CLEVELAND...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...CLEAR LAKE...BARRETT AND GREATER
FIFTH WARD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: January 2016: Rain/Storm Chances/ Freeze Possible Late W

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:57 pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 5
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM AND
INTENSIFY FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.
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Re: January 2016: Rain/Storm Chances/ Freeze Possible Late W

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:24 pm

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1222 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

HARRIS TX-CHAMBERS TX-LIBERTY TX-
1222 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS AND LIBERTY COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CST...

AT 1219 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR ROMAYOR TO PASADENA MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME ROTATION IN A STRONGER
STORM WEST OF MOSS HILL IN LIBERTY COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...SOUTH HOUSTON...
SEABROOK...GALENA PARK...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...BARRETT...
NORTHERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...CHANNELVIEW...GREATER HOBBY AREA...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...NORTHERN CLEAR LAKE...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU
AND TAYLOR LAKE VILLAGE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 21, 2016 6:03 pm

Brrr...that's a chilly wind out there this evening. Looks like the big High Impact Winter Storm is wrapping up quickly. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings have been issued as well as a Blizzard Warning for the Washington DC/Baltimore Area. Looks like some locations along the Appalachian and Shenandoah Range to just S of Philadelphia could see up to 30 inches of snow, if not more. Locally, windchill values will be in the mid/upper 20's inland to near 30 along the Coast.

01212016 US Hazards.png


Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby BlueJay » Thu Jan 21, 2016 8:02 pm

Maybe I'm overreacting, but I brought in my big potted Boston fern tonight. Brrrrr! Windy and cold out there!!
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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby Katdaddy » Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:06 pm

Not at all. I have 2 plants I will bring in tomorrow and yep its cold and windy out there. Getting some strong gusts down here in League City.
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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Jan 22, 2016 6:41 am

Temps in the low 40s and few upper 30s across SE TX with breezy conditions. Skies will continue to clear today as the large powerful Winter Storm moves across the SE US toward the E and NE US. Lots of sun and warming temps for the weekend. Temps N of Houston metro will likely have a light freeze with areas from Houston metro down to the coast will have mid to upper 30s for lows Saturday morning.
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Re: January 2016: Chilly Winds & A Big Nor'easter

Postby srainhoutx » Fri Jan 22, 2016 2:26 pm

Looks like we may well see a light freeze into IAH. College Station is expecting a low of 28F and Galveston is expecting a low of 38F tomorrow morning.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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