December 2015 -Year Ends As One Of Wettest On Record

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: December 2015 - Colder Weather To End December

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Dec 28, 2015 10:10 am

Morning detailed briefing from Jeff regarding the N Texas Tornado Outbreak:

combination of factors evolved during the early evening hours of December 26, 2015 over N TX to produce one of the most devastating winter time tornado outbreaks in modern times in TX. Several supercell thunderstorms produced at least 9 tornadoes across north TX with the most significant affecting the higher population areas of eastern Dallas County into northwest Rockwall County and southeast Collin County.

There were 11 fatalities associated with the tornadoes including 8 in the City of Garland and 5 at the I-30/George Bush Turnpike interchange where vehicles were swept off the highway. Cell video of the tornado crossing I-30 indicated that motorists traveling both directions on I-30 appeared largely unaware of the approaching tornado and drove directly into the large circulation.

The 11 tornado fatalities on December 26, 2015 makes is the most fatalities in a N TX tornado outbreak since 10 fatalities in Dallas County in 1957 and 34 fatalities in Dallas and Collin Counties on May 9, 1927. This outbreak was the deadliest outbreak in over 50 years.

The 20 tornado fatalities in the last 5 days across the southern US is the most December tornado deaths since 49 fatalities in December 1953.

The EF-4 rated Garland Tornado in the strongest December tornado on record in the US since an EF-4 tornado struck AL on December 16, 2000.

An estimated 1100 structures were damaged by the multiple tornadoes.

Rowlett/Garland/Sunnyvale Tornado:
Tornado developed at 645pm SW of Sunnyvale and tracked NNE through the City of Garland and the City of Rowlett on the western shore of Lake Ray Hubbard. Track was 13 miles long with EF-3 (136-165 mph) rated damage in Rowlett and EF-4 (166-200 mph) rated damage in Garland and a path width of 550 yards. This tornado resulted in 8 fatalities and over 75 injuries and was on the ground for 20 minutes. Doppler radar scans of the supercell that was producing this tornado indicated debris was lofted up to 17,000 ft above the surface. The large debris field was clearly noted in the radar images as captured below as the tornado crossed into the high population areas of Garland and Rowlett. The EF-4 rating in Garland is the strongest tornado rating in Dallas County since 1994.

Copeville Tornado:
This tornado developed from the Rowlett supercell and formed at 728pm near Copeville, TX. The damage path was 7.3 miles long and 150 yards wide and was rated EF -2. There were 2 fatalities with this tornado. This tornado was produced from the same supercell that produced the Garland/Rowlett tornado after crossing over Lake Ray Hubbard.

Blue Ridge Tornado:
This tornado was on the ground for 4 minutes producing EF-0 damage (65-85mph) with a path length of 3 miles and 80 yards wide. Based on the timing…the tornado was moving at nearly 1 mile per minute. There was 1 fatality associated with this tornado in Blue Ridge.

Glenn Heights/Ovilla/Waxahachie Tornado:
Damage survey will be conducted today to determine EF rating for this tornado. Damage was extensive in northern Ellis and southern Dallas County with 101 structures damaged or destroyed. There were no fatalities with this tornado, but several injuries.

The following warnings were issued by the NWS Fort Worth Office for the Garland and Rowlett Tornado. The tornado warning at 639pm, triggered the outdoor siren systems in Rowlett, Garland, and Rockwall…a total of 6 minutes before the tornado touched down. A severe weather statement followed the lead warning at 649pm indicated that there was a confirmed large tornado on the ground and again at 655pm.



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

639 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTHEASTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

WESTERN ROCKWALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 638 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BALCH SPRINGS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.




HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.



SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.



IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE

DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THERE ARE TWO STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING

TORNADOES. ONE JUST SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN DALLAS... ONE NEAR BALCH

SPRINGS. BOTH STORMS ARE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND MOVING NORTHEAST.



* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

SUNNYVALE AROUND 645 PM CST.

DALLAS...GARLAND...RICHARDSON...ROWLETT...ROCKWALL AND SACHSE

AROUND 700 PM CST.

MURPHY AROUND 705 PM CST.

WYLIE...LUCAS AND PARKER AROUND 710 PM CST.

FAIRVIEW AROUND 715 PM CST.

FARMERSVILLE AROUND 725 PM CST.



OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ST.

PAUL...BUCKINGHAM...NEVADA AND LAVON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 425 AND 435.
INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 475 AND 481.
INTERSTATE 30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND 69.
INTERSTATE 45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 280 AND 284.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT

WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.





649 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN

COLLIN...NORTHEASTERN DALLAS AND WESTERN ROCKWALL COUNTIES...

AT 648 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED OVER ROWLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY

BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES

WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. SPOTTERS REPORT A LARGE AND EXTREMELY

DANGEROUS TORNADO NORTH OF SUNNYVALE...MOVING NORTH TOWARDS GARLAND

AND ROWLETT. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE COVER

IMMEDIATELY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

ROCKWALL AND SACHSE AROUND 700 PM CST.

WYLIE AROUND 705 PM CST.

FARMERSVILLE AROUND 720 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ST.

PAUL...BUCKINGHAM...NEVADA AND LAVON.



655 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN
COLLIN...NORTHEASTERN DALLAS AND WESTERN ROCKWALL COUNTIES...

AT 654 PM CST...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS

LOCATED OVER ROWLETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY

BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES

WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. RADAR CONFIRMED DEBRIS WAS BEING LOFTED

OVER 1 MILE IN THE AIR. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF

YOU ARE NEAR ROWLETT...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE!


THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROCKWALL AROUND 705 PM CST.
WYLIE AROUND 715 PM CST.
FARMERSVILLE AROUND 730 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE ST.
PAUL...BUCKINGHAM...NEVADA AND LAVON.
12282015 Jeff 1 unnamed.png


From Rockwall…looking west toward Rowlett (blue flash is debris striking power lines)
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From Rockwall…looking across Lake Ray Hubbard
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From Rockwall
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Massive tornado approaching I-30 from the south…moving through Garland
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Rowlett
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I-30 at George Bush Turnpike (several vehicles were rolled and carried by the tornado)
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65 trailers destroyed…no fatalities
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High End EF 3/low end EF 4 damage (entire second floor of apartment building blown apart):
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Garland South of I-30 (high end EF 3/low end EF 4 damage)
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Just S of I-30 and George Bush Turnpike:
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I-30 at George Bush Turnpike (location of multiple fatalities in vehicles):
12282015 Jeff 28 unnamedUFT8UR8I.jpg


S of Hwy 66 at Dalrock Exit (Rowlett)
12282015 Jeff 29 unnamed.jpg


Rowlett (at west shore of Lake Ray Hubbard):
12282015 Jeff 30 unnamed.jpg


Garland ( mid to high end EF 4 damage where home is completely removed from slab):
12282015 Jeff 31 unnamed.jpg

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Re: December 2015 - Colder Weather To End December

Postby Ounce » Mon Dec 28, 2015 11:44 am

With no slight towards those people intended, I'm glad that didn't hit here.
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Re: December 2015 - Colder Weather To End December

Postby Heat Miser » Mon Dec 28, 2015 1:37 pm

Ounce wrote:With no slight towards those people intended, I'm glad that didn't hit here.

That's for sure. Historically we usually get the low end EF-0-EF-1, maybe a 2 around these parts.
November 1992 was the exception, plus I believe an EF-4 associated with Carla on Galveston Island back in the early 60's.
We definitely came out of this situation nicely, given the concern from some meteorologist. My personal belief is the Gulf plays havoc with any parameters met that indicate a severe event for us.
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Re: December 2015 - Colder Weather To End December

Postby Katdaddy » Mon Dec 28, 2015 7:50 pm

Back home from another fun Christmas adventure with family in NTX. A few picts of the flooding along I-45 between Corsicana and Fairfield. Glad we are back to much more tranquil and normal weather for this of time year. April weather for Christmas Eve and Christmas with amazing skies followed by significant severe weather potential Saturday followed by Winters arrival Sunday with some areas seeing snow this morning. It was quite the NTX weather roller coaster ride. I was also very relieved that SE TX was spared significant severe weather Sunday. Prayers to the families in NTX devastated by the violent tornadoes Saturday evening. It was a helpless feeling watching the live TV coverage of the tornadoes and seeing the large hook echoes on radar knowing that life threatening destruction was ongoing.
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Re: December 2015 - Colder Weather To End December

Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Dec 29, 2015 12:13 am

Heat Miser wrote:
Ounce wrote:With no slight towards those people intended, I'm glad that didn't hit here.

That's for sure. Historically we usually get the low end EF-0-EF-1, maybe a 2 around these parts.
November 1992 was the exception, plus I believe an EF-4 associated with Carla on Galveston Island back in the early 60's.
We definitely came out of this situation nicely, given the concern from some meteorologist. My personal belief is the Gulf plays havoc with any parameters met that indicate a severe event for us.


Usually tornadoes are more likely to be seen inland, especially the big ones. The high humidity makes it less favorable for tornadoes. There was an EF-4 tornado from Carla in Galveston.

Tornadoes need low level high dewpoints, which is something Southeast Texas rarely sees.
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Re: December 2015 - Colder Weather To End December

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 29, 2015 1:44 am

River Flooding Update from Jeff:

Excessive rainfall this weekend of 3-6 inches over the Trinity, middle Brazos, and Navasota basins resulting in rises to and/or above flood stage.

Navasota River:

Major flooding is ongoing and forecast at Easterly and Normangee. Current forecast at Easterly would be the 3rd highest on record.

Easterly:

Current Stage: 26.65 ft

Flood Stage: 19.0 ft

Forecast: crest near 26.95 ft tonight. Major flooding below Easterly to Hwy 21 is expected at these levels.

Normangee:

Current Stage: 14.25 ft

Flood Stage: 15.0 ft

Forecast: rise to near 21.5 ft Wednesday night into Thursday (record level is 22.7ft). The current forecasted crest would be the second highest crest on record at this location. At 20.0ft the river is nearly 2 miles wide at the OSR bridge with massive inundation of the floodplain.

Brazos River:

Large flood wave on the Navasota River will empty into the Brazos River below Bryan late this week along with run-off from Yegua and Davidson Creeks. Flood wave is forecast to reach Richmond this weekend with a crest around 43-44 ft (1 ft below flood stage) and Rosharon late this weekend or early next week with a crest near or just over flood stage. Should forecast continue to indicate flooding at Rosharon a Flood Warning will be required for southern Fort Bend and northern Brazoria County.

Trinity River:

River remains in flood…flooding has been ongoing since mid November. Major flooding continues at Liberty as flood inflows into Lake Livingston are passed downstream. River is forecast to hold around major flood levels at Liberty for the next week. Upstream flood wave is currently being generated from run-off over N TX and will move downstream over the next two weeks. This will maintain flood conditions along much of the entire basin for at least the next two weeks if not longer. Many locations around Liberty have been completely cut-off now for 2-3 weeks and will remain isolated…only accessible by boat…for the next week or longer.
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Re: December 2015 -Chilly & Damp New Years Eve Possible

Postby brooksgarner » Tue Dec 29, 2015 12:42 pm

Thanks for the excellent tornado outbreak write-up, srainhoutx. Horrible situation for North TX. My aunt in Dallas has a colleague in Ellis County who lost her home, but was thankfully uninjured (as they were not home) when the EF-3 hit.

Great info too, by Jeff regarding area rivers.

Thanks, all.

Looking forward to a prosperous 2016, though it'll start off rainy and chilly: a sign of good luck, no doubt!
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Re: December 2015 -Chilly & Damp New Years Eve Possible

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 29, 2015 4:14 pm

2015 Annual Rainfall Totals for SE Texas from HGX:

Code: Select all
.CLIMATE...
2015 HAS BEEN A VERY WET YEAR FOR MANY PLACES ACROSS SE TEXAS.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS A RANKING OF THE ANNUAL RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR 27 SITES ACROSS SE TEXAS WHICH REACHED INTO THE TOP
TEN WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD. THE DATA IS FOR RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
YEAR (THROUGH DECEMBER 28TH).

       ...ANNUAL RAINFALL RANKINGS FOR NWS HGX...

                                            PREV/CUR RECORD
SITE                       2015 RAIN  RANK   AMOUNT   YEAR   

ANGLETON AIRPORT             57.93      1     55.65   2004
BAYTOWN                     101.33      1     83.33   2002
BELLVILLE 6NNE               64.50      1     64.41   1992
BRENHAM                      77.00      1     66.39   1919
CALDWELL                     64.42      1     63.40   1968
CITY OF HOUSTON              70.02      5     72.86   1900
COLLEGE STATION **           58.23      3     61.04   1968
COLUMBUS                     64.89      2     65.13   2004
CONROE AIRPORT               52.25      5     63.34   2004
CROCKETT                     65.84      4     66.17   1991
DW HOOKS AIRPORT             60.57      2     68.30   2001
HOBBY AIRPORT                77.12      5     83.02   1979
HOUSTON-NORTH HOUSTON        67.27      5     75.50   1991
HOUSTON WESTBURY             82.28      1     75.80   2007
HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT           66.66      1     59.58   2001
HUNTSVILLE CO-OP             68.97      1     67.15   1973
KATY WOLF HILL               56.03      6     70.06   2004
LIBERTY                      94.72      1     88.14   1991
MADISONVILLE                 58.63      4     61.52   1968
MONTGOMERY                   58.61      8     72.18   1973
NWS HGX LEAGUE CITY          86.90      1     77.98   2001
PEARLAND CLOVER FIELD        70.18      1     69.75   2002
RICHMOND                     63.34      6     75.31   2004
SOMERVILLE DAM               60.68      2     66.57   1968
SUGAR LAND AIRPORT           74.75      1     62.67   2004
WASHINGTON STATE PARK        65.34      1     61.68   1946
WHARTON                      66.70      2     70.39   2004

NOTES
** COLLEGE STATION INCLUDES COMBINED DATA FROM THE CO-OP SITE
   AND EASTERWOOD FIELD.

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Re: December 2015 -Chilly & Damp New Years Eve Possible

Postby Texaspirate11 » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:14 pm

I posted this on my forum - but, if you don't mind I will post here, if that's okay
if anyone with a disability that lives in the areas that have been affected by the tornadoes and needs help,
please PM me.
Thank you.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
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Re: December 2015 -Chilly & Damp New Years Eve Possible

Postby Ounce » Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:54 am

srainhoutx wrote:2015 Annual Rainfall Totals for SE Texas from HGX:

Code: Select all
.CLIMATE...
2015 HAS BEEN A VERY WET YEAR FOR MANY PLACES ACROSS SE TEXAS.
THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS A RANKING OF THE ANNUAL RAINFALL
RECORDS FOR 27 SITES ACROSS SE TEXAS WHICH REACHED INTO THE TOP
TEN WETTEST YEARS ON RECORD. THE DATA IS FOR RAINFALL SO FAR THIS
YEAR (THROUGH DECEMBER 28TH).

       ...ANNUAL RAINFALL RANKINGS FOR NWS HGX...

                                            PREV/CUR RECORD
SITE                       2015 RAIN  RANK   AMOUNT   YEAR   

ANGLETON AIRPORT             57.93      1     55.65   2004
BAYTOWN                     101.33      1     83.33   2002
BELLVILLE 6NNE               64.50      1     64.41   1992
BRENHAM                      77.00      1     66.39   1919
CALDWELL                     64.42      1     63.40   1968
CITY OF HOUSTON              70.02      5     72.86   1900
COLLEGE STATION **           58.23      3     61.04   1968
COLUMBUS                     64.89      2     65.13   2004
CONROE AIRPORT               52.25      5     63.34   2004
CROCKETT                     65.84      4     66.17   1991
DW HOOKS AIRPORT             60.57      2     68.30   2001
HOBBY AIRPORT                77.12      5     83.02   1979
HOUSTON-NORTH HOUSTON        67.27      5     75.50   1991
HOUSTON WESTBURY             82.28      1     75.80   2007
HUNTSVILLE AIRPORT           66.66      1     59.58   2001
HUNTSVILLE CO-OP             68.97      1     67.15   1973
KATY WOLF HILL               56.03      6     70.06   2004
LIBERTY                      94.72      1     88.14   1991
MADISONVILLE                 58.63      4     61.52   1968
MONTGOMERY                   58.61      8     72.18   1973
NWS HGX LEAGUE CITY          86.90      1     77.98   2001
PEARLAND CLOVER FIELD        70.18      1     69.75   2002
RICHMOND                     63.34      6     75.31   2004
SOMERVILLE DAM               60.68      2     66.57   1968
SUGAR LAND AIRPORT           74.75      1     62.67   2004
WASHINGTON STATE PARK        65.34      1     61.68   1946
WHARTON                      66.70      2     70.39   2004

NOTES
** COLLEGE STATION INCLUDES COMBINED DATA FROM THE CO-OP SITE
   AND EASTERWOOD FIELD.

40




Galveston doesn't have a reporting station? Is the League City office the closest?
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