October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Oct 23, 2015 7:46 pm

Dr. Neil Frank on KHOU 11 this evening.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Katdaddy » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:00 pm

Dr Neil sharing his passion of weather and keeping us informed. Always positive.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Paul Robison » Fri Oct 23, 2015 8:49 pm

Is Hurricane Patricia over land now?
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby davidiowx » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:24 pm

I don't want to be rude but this has to stop. I check this forum regularly and seeing this stuff above is just complete nonsense.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Andrew » Fri Oct 23, 2015 9:44 pm

davidiowx wrote:I don't want to be rude but this has to stop. I check this forum regularly and seeing this stuff above is just complete nonsense.



Taking care of it. Remember everyone keep posts factual and informative. Especially at this time where many are relying on the board for information.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Andrew » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:12 pm

00z GFS
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby jasons » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:25 pm

GFS seems to be focusing-in along the coast/1st tier of inland counties. To be honest, I am a little skeptical of it being concentrated that far SE. We're talking tens of miles by now, but I see the center of Patrica's remnants tracking just slightly NW of there.

I think Houston, Harris County, and surrounding areas need to very keep a close watch on this.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Baseballdude2915 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:28 pm

Andrew wrote:00z GFS


:shock:
Even though it's probably the last model run before we enter nowcast mode, that's impressive.
Looking forward to following the board for another event, good to see this place active after all the years.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Rip76 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 10:53 pm

That 00Z run is not a good sign.
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Re: October 2015 - Heavy Rainfall/Coastal Low/Flash Flood Li

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sat Oct 24, 2015 12:31 am

HGX DISCO:

MOST PRECIP THIS EVENING IS NORTH/WEST OF SE TX. SO FOR US LOCALLY
THIS IS THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. ON SATURDAY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AND DEVELOP ACROSS SE TX. ADJUSTED THE
PRECIP AMOUNT FORECAST SOME TO INCORPORATE THE LATEST MODELS AND
WPC FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE COASTAL AND 1ST INLAND TIER OF COUNTIES. THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO AND JUST NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE UPPER
SE TX COASTLINE. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE IMPRESSIVE INFLOW AND
COMBINE WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS DURING THE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD. LOOKING LIKE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL AROUND 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS IN THIS AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA...CELL TRAINING
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THIS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CREATE
A FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREAWIDE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING WHAT THIS
AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF OFF TO OUR NW THIS EVE IN CENTRAL/NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING. 33
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