October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

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October 2015 - Severe Storms/Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfal

Postby ticka1 » Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:12 pm

Time for the October 2015 thread!

Will the cooler weather start stepping down?
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby BlueJay » Mon Sep 21, 2015 3:00 pm

Will October 2015 be wet?
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 23, 2015 10:18 pm

BlueJay wrote:Will October 2015 be wet?


Usually El Nino favors a wet October.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_oct

Top 10 Wettest
17.64 1949
16.05 1984
14.65 2002
14.53 2006
13.16 2009
10.85 1960
10.62 1994
10.23 1941
9.89 1907
9.86 1913

By El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral

El Nino
1913
1941
1994
2002
2006
2009

La Nina
1907
1949
1960
1984

Six of the ten wettest Octobers occurred in El Nino.

Top 10 Driest
Trace 1934
0.01 1963
0.01 1944
0.02 2010
0.02 1952
0.03 1889
0.05 1978
0.09 1948
0.17 1987
0.23 1961

By El Nino, La Nina, or Neutral

El Nino
1963
1978
1987

La Nina
1889
1934
1944
1948
1961
2010

Neutral
1952

Three of the ten occurred in El Nino. The El Ninos were weak or fading away. They mostly occurred in La Nina.
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby BlueJay » Thu Sep 24, 2015 7:26 pm

Thanks for the info Ptarmigan.
Kludge - We are dry here too.
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby BlueJay » Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:36 pm

Even I am a bit ready for a bit of frost on the pumpkins! (I can't believe that I just typed that!!!)
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby srainhoutx » Sun Sep 27, 2015 6:06 pm

Several things we will need to monitor as we end September and begin October. There are some indications that the sub tropical jet may begin to get rather noisy possibly increasing our rain chances next weekend into the first full week of October. There also are growing indications that the Polar Jet Stream may begin to buckle as the teleconnection indices respond and cooler weather develops East of the Rockies. Another potential fly in the ointment is a landfalling Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone bringing some healthy rainfall chances across Texas during early October. Fingers crossed, we will finally see a real change in the weather pattern that brings moisture back to areas that need it across the Lone Star State.
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby DoctorMu » Mon Sep 28, 2015 10:06 am

End watering season.

Begin brown patch season.
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:34 am

If the 12Z GFS is correct, a fairly strong early Fall cold front will pass Sunday afternoon into early next Monday. Temperatures in the low 60's to low 70's for daytime highs should feel refreshing...if the models are correct. ;)
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby snowman65 » Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:38 am

"IF"....the biggest word in the human language.....lol :D
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Re: October 2015 - Cooler weather??

Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Sep 28, 2015 9:30 pm

srainhoutx wrote:If the 12Z GFS is correct, a fairly strong early Fall cold front will pass Sunday afternoon into early next Monday. Temperatures in the low 60's to low 70's for daytime highs should feel refreshing...if the models are correct. ;)


I say bring it! 8-) :twisted:

Should of came before the total lunar eclipse.
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