JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby nuby3 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:31 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
nuby3 wrote:I distinctly remember there being mention of a stall around Matagorda bay in one of the model runs


The Euro was 12 hours slower than the other computer guidance and a run or two suggested a stall...if I recall correctly. I stopped looking at the guidance completely yesterday and focused on satellite and radar data. Getting a bit concerned about our SW and Western areas. There is a lot of rain moving in with at least two feeder bands approaching as Bill lifts N.

Image


I'm worried it keeps a nne heading, it could easily bring heavy rain into Houston metro on that heading. looks like some heavier convection building in from Galveston toward Dwntwn now
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:38 pm

Harris County is about to get in on the action... Training moving in from the SW and pushing NE as nuby stated dead smack in the middle of rush hour I might add.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:54 pm

Update from Jeff:

Center of Bill slowly moving inland west of Matagorda Bay.

Heavy Rainfall threat increasing this evening and overnight along and west of I-45.

Discussion:
Bill has moved very slowly inland today, ,but has recently begin to move faster toward the north. Recent development of sustained excessive rainfall from Matagorda County extending over 100 miles into the Gulf of Mexico appears to be the start of several model generated banding features which look to affect the region overnight into Wednesday. Overall structure of the tropical storm has remain in good condition today given its slow inland movement and good fetch of deep tropical moisture which the system resides within.

Rainfall:
Concern remains with bands near and to the east of the center of circulation tonight. Several high resolution models show multiple feeder bands with potential for cell training over areas along and west of I-45 for much of the night into Wednesday. Thus far, rainfall overall has been less than expected, but this air mass remains very capable of high rainfall rates and fairly large rainfall totals. Main culprit to higher rainfall rates and totals tonight will be the degree of sustained convective development which thus far has been lacking. Models are in decent agreement on this banding, but not in great agreement on the placement of the heaviest rainfall axis.

Additional rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches with isolated amounts of 8-10 inches will be possible tonight and Wednesday along and east of the track of the center of Bill or roughly across areas west of I-45 over SE TX.

Tides:
Coastal water level continue to run above normal especially in the NW part of Galveston Bay, along the Gulf beaches, and in Matagorda Bay. Biggest problems continue to be in the NW part of Galveston Bay and Clear Lake where water levels are running 3.0-4.0 ft. Still having issues on Bolivar (SH 87) with overwash debris over the roadway. Tides will gradually come down tonight as wind weaken, but incoming long period swells will result in a slower reduction of the tides than normal.

Winds:
Still a few tropical storm force gusts ongoing over the coastal waters and Matagorda Bay region, but will likely see the tropical storm warning lowered this evening.

Words of Caution:
While Bill has thus far not produced significant rainfall and flooding many times tropical systems such as this produce excessive rainfall after moving inland…sometimes well inland.

Tropical systems like to produce periods of excessive rainfall in the early morning hours when the low level jet maximizes low level convergence. This tends to favor feeder band production and excessive rainfall rates along with pulling in of rainfall near the core of the center of the storm (core rainfall). Both of these remain possibilities tonight over SE TX.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby Katdaddy » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:57 pm

Jeff's update states the overnight flooding concern very well.

Thankfully TS Bill has not produced the heavy widepread flooding rains that have been forecast for past several days across the Houston-Galveston areas. With that said TS Bill is producing heavy rains SW over Matagorda, Wharton, and Lavaca Counties. Decaying tropical cyclones are notorious for nocturnal core rains……Claudette 1979 and Allison 2001 just to name a few. Very heavy tropical rains could develop overnight but this afternoon's Houston-Galveston AFD indicates the most significant flood threat to be W of a Angleton - College Station line. Bottom line, the threat for heavy rains will exist for SE TX until the associated moisture from TS Bill lifts further into the state which should occur later tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:57 pm

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
551 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 548 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. 1.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN BAY CITY...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...EDNA...GANADO...LA
WARD...VAN VLECK...PIERCE...LOLITA...MARKHAM...BOLING-IAGO...
HUNGERFORD...CORDELE...EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...
DANEVANG...LOUISE AND MIDFIELD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby Rhodesk75 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:23 pm

I live in Angleton and we are getting a real kick out of watching all of these weather reports showing Angleton being right smack dab in the middle of the yellows & reds and that we have wind gusts of 30+mph. My driveway is barely damp, I could literally mow my yard without wetting my shoes and I could lay a dollar bill on my deck without it blowing away! Lol!
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby unome » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:30 pm

sage advice from NWS Southern Region Headquarters

https://twitter.com/nws_southern_us

Image
Last edited by unome on Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby mckinne63 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:34 pm

I could've gone to work today, but I do not regret staying home. One never knows what these storms will bring.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby mckinne63 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:35 pm

unome wrote:sage advice from NWS Southern Region Headquarters

Image


I'm not going anywhere! I am in for the night. :mrgreen:
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby nuby3 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:50 pm

Still looks to have paused and changed direction to a nne heading IMHO. I'd have the center passing just east of Bryan if I extrapolated the heading it looks to be on
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