JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:51 pm

TROPICAL STORM BILL LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AL022015
450 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS PRODUCT COVERS SOUTHEAST TEXAS

...**BILL BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD**...

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LIBERTY...HARRIS...CHAMBERS AND
GALVESTON HAS BEEN CANCELLED

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COLORADO...WHARTON...FORT BEND...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA

* STORM INFORMATION:
- ABOUT 60 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MATAGORDA TX
- 28.4N 96.8W
- STORM INTENSITY 50 MPH
- MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM BILL IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING SOME AS
IT DOES. THE MAIN IMPACTS TONIGHT WILL BE FLOODING RAINS AS BILL
SLOWLY MOVES NORTH. AREAS FROM PALACIOS THROUGH COLLEGE STATION
MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN FLOODING. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN WIND EVENT ARE NOW
UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REMAIN WELL SHELTERED FROM
HAZARDOUS WIND HAVING ADDITIONAL LIMITED IMPACTS. IF REALIZED,
THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, SHEDS, AND UNANCHORED
MOBILE HOMES. UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN ABOUT.
- MANY LARGE TREE LIMBS BROKEN OFF. A FEW TREES SNAPPED OR
UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE
SHALLOW ROOTED. SOME FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
- A FEW ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM DEBRIS, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN
OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON
BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED ROADWAYS.
- SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.

* SURGE:POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE MAIN SURGE EVENT ARE NOW
UNFOLDING ACROSS MATAGORDA BAY AND ALONG THE COAST TO SURFSIDE
AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA. REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SURGE HAVING ADDITIONAL LIMITED IMPACTS. IF REALIZED, THESE
IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- LOCALIZED INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING MAINLY ALONG
IMMEDIATE SHORELINES AND IN LOW-LYING SPOTS, OR IN AREAS
FARTHER INLAND NEAR WHERE HIGHER SURGE WATERS MOVE ASHORE.
- SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ROADS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME OVERSPREAD
WITH SURGE WATER. DRIVING CONDITIONS DANGEROUS IN PLACES WHERE
SURGE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
- MODERATE BEACH EROSION. HEAVY SURF ALSO BREACHING DUNES, MAINLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS.
- MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS,
AND PIERS. A FEW SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS, LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

* FLOODING RAIN:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING RAIN ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. REMAIN WELL GUARDED AGAINST DANGEROUS
FLOOD WATERS HAVING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS,
ARROYOS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING RAIN ARE STILL UNFOLDING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. IMPACTS FROM FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS BILL MOVES NORTH. AREAS TO
THE EAST MAY HAVE LESS IMPACT.

* TORNADOES:
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES ARE STILL UNFOLDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. REMAIN WELL BRACED AGAINST A TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE IMPACTS.
IF REALIZED, THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- A FEW PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE, ALONG WITH POWER
AND COMMUNICATIONS DISRUPTIONS.
- LOCATIONS COULD REALIZE ROOFS PEELED OFF BUILDINGS, CHIMNEYS
TOPPLED, MOBILE HOMES PUSHED OFF FOUNDATIONS OR OVERTURNED,
LARGE TREE TOPS AND BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF, SHALLOW-ROOTED TREES
KNOCKED OVER, MOVING VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROADS, AND SMALL BOATS
PULLED FROM MOORINGS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS ARE STILL IN EFFECT FOR BOLIVAR PENINSULA
FOR WAVE RUN UP AND SURGE. HIGHWAY 87 HAS WATER ON IT AND A LOT OF
DEBRIS FROM WAVE RUN UP.

DO NOT BE A THRILL SEEKER OR RISK YOUR LIFE FOR SENSELESS PHOTOS
OR VIDEOS. BE WISE AND AVOID BECOMING ANOTHER STATISTIC. GALVESTON
BEACH PATROL HAS ALREADY REQUESTED PEOPLE TO KEEP AWAY FROM
BEACHES...JETTIES AND PIERS DUE TO WAVE ACTION AND RIP CURRENTS.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- FOR INFORMATION ON APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS SEE READY.GOV
- FOR INFORMATION ON CREATING AN EMERGENCY PLAN SEE GETAGAMEPLAN.ORG
- FOR ADDITIONAL DISASTER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION SEE REDCROSS.ORG

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX AROUND 11 PM CDT, OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:55 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015


.DISCUSSION...
TS BILL MOVING NORTH FINALLY AND FILLING QUICKLY FROM 999 TO 1002
MB AS OF 3 PM. STILL HAVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
REPORTED ON OFFSHORE PLATFORMS (OF COURSE THESE ARE ELEVATED
COMPARED TO STANDARD SENSOR HEIGHTS) WITH SUSTAINED 20-30 KNOT
AROUND FREEPORT TO GALVESTON BAY AND GUSTS 30-40 KTS. STRONGER
WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE AREA FROM FREEPORT TO MATAGORDA BAY. STILL
HAVE TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND DON`T ANTICIPATE
THIS COMING DOWN AS SHEAR PROFILE IS STILL DECENT ESPECIALLY GOING
INTO TONIGHT AS LLJ TRANSLATES INLAND AND NORTHWESTWARD OVER
AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HOUSTON SOUTHWESTWARD.

RAIN BAND WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM HIGH ISLAND TO NORTH HOUSTON
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
AT 330 WAS FROM AROUND HUNTSVILLE TO CLEVELAND THIS BAND SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH. THE LARGER PROBLEM WILL BE THE
DEVELOPING BAND IN MATAGORDA COUNTY WITH THE MOISTURE SOURCE
COMING OUT OF THE VERY JUICY WEST CENTRAL GULF. EXPECT THAT FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IS GOING TO INCREASE QUICKLY TONIGHT FOR AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM ANGLETON TO COLLEGE STATION. HAVE RAISED QPF
OVER THESE AREA AND 4 TO 5 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD BE COMMON IN THIS
HIGHER RISK AREA AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 9-11 INCHES SEEMS
REACHABLE. SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT EXISTS TONIGHT. BY
SUNRISE THE HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF
COLLEGE STATION AND BRENHAM AREAS WESTWARD WITH A TAIL DOWN INTO
THE GULF MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY THE REMNANTS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHICH
WILL KEEP SETX IN THE MOIST AXIS AND SO STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING THROUGH THE REGION
WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT BUT A MUCH LOWER SEVERE THREAT.
GOING INTO THURSDAY THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE DECREASING AS
STORMS BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND UPPER RIDGING TO THE
EAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND EXPANDS WESTWARD. THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL DRY THE AREA OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HOT AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL SET UP OVER SETX BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SAN LUIS PASS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN
DROPPED.

TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED BUT WITH A LONG SLOW FALL
WITH THE COMING LOW TIDE THESE LEVELS SHOULD LOWER AND REMAIN
BELOW 4 FT ABOVE MLLW. BEACHES WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS AS SWELLS AND
RUNUP KEEP THE BEACHES FLOODED.

45

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby ticka1 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:58 pm

so is the flood threat for houston lessen? Been away from computer last hour!
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby nuby3 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:05 pm

ticka1 wrote:so is the flood threat for houston lessen? Been away from computer last hour!


We are not out of the woods, especially on the west side and along the western edge of harris county westward they are gonna get a lot of rain along I-10 from hwy77 to Katy --looks to have jogged east lately
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:07 pm

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/16/15 2200Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2145Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE WITH FOCUS TO THE NORTH AND NE OF TS BILL
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER SPE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM BILL IS NOW INVOF CALHOUN COUNTY IN SE TX WITH INNER
BANDS SHOWING DEEPEST CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF CENTERS
CIRCULATION. FLARE UP OF COLDEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-68C AND PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO
REGION. 85H VWP'S SHOWING 40-50 KNOTS SE FLOW INTO DISCUSSION REGION
WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING POOL OF 2.8" PWATS JUST OFFSHORE AND
A GENERAL 2.2-2.6" PWATS FOR MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION REGION. A MANUAL
SATELLITE ESTIMATE PROVIDES 1.3"/30 MIN RATES IN DEEPEST CORES WITH A
FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS SEEN IN THE VIS. WOULD EXPECT RATES OF 1-2"/HR
AND ISOLATED 2-3"/HR POSSIBLE GIVEN DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2200-0100Z..HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT INNER BANDS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TS BILL TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES NEXT 3 HOURS
AND BEYOND. FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAINS AT THIS TIME IS CENTERED INVOF
MATAGORDA/WHARTON AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES WHERE 1-2"/HR+ RATES ARE
POSSIBLE. WOULD EXPECT FF ISSUES TO REMAIN NEXT 3 HOURS WHERE SEVERAL
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINS COULD OCCUR.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:11 pm

Looks like training band of rain encroaching on the SW/W periphery of Harris County. System doesn't seem to be making much Westward progress... Almost due north and stair stepping slightly NNE a little.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby ticka1 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:14 pm

nuby3 wrote:
ticka1 wrote:so is the flood threat for houston lessen? Been away from computer last hour!


We are not out of the woods, especially on the west side and along the western edge of harris county westward they are gonna get a lot of rain along I-10 from hwy77 to Katy --looks to have jogged east lately


okay i am on east side
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:18 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-JACKSON TX-MATAGORDA TX-
511 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 505 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO A FEEDER
BAND OF TROPICAL STORM BILL. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THIS MAY BE UPGRADED TO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IF
THIS BAND REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...PIERCE...VAN VLECK...DANEVANG AND LOUISE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby nuby3 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:20 pm

I distinctly remember there being mention of a stall around Matagorda bay in one of the model runs
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Storm Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jun 16, 2015 5:24 pm

nuby3 wrote:I distinctly remember there being mention of a stall around Matagorda bay in one of the model runs


The Euro was 12 hours slower than the other computer guidance and a run or two suggested a stall...if I recall correctly. I stopped looking at the guidance completely yesterday and focused on satellite and radar data. Getting a bit concerned about our SW and Western areas. There is a lot of rain moving in with at least two feeder bands approaching as Bill lifts N.

Image
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