JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby brooksgarner » Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:27 pm

Are you guys seeing how the storms over Corpus are cutting off our moisture feed? Quite interesting because they "pick up" again just after Houston... will be interesting to see if Bill's northeastward progression will move the "forcing" over Houston this evening, flooding out the metro, or if Bill's departure will influence the band of rain like a departing shortwave: it falls apart as the parent system exits... My gut feeling is different than the WPC discussion... But seeing as brighter skies are warming us up and increasing our CAPE, I suppose anything is possible.
KHOU 11 MET
Latest blogs from the weather team, updated daily! http://www.khou.com/weather/weather-blog
http://fb.com/khouBrooks
http://twitter.com/brooksKHOU
http://instagram.com/wxbrooks
  • '12 Sandy (P3 Orion)
  • '91 Bob
  • '85 Gloria
User avatar
brooksgarner
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 177
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:36 pm

Iv'e been focused on HGX radar. I did not realize South Central/Coastal Texas is getting POUNDED!! Wow. Seems like Houston proper is being spared. Just outside the mess on all sides.
HouTXmetro
 
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:39 pm
Location: Houston, TX (Medical Center/Reliant Park)

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby Baseballdude2915 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:41 pm

brooksgarner wrote:Are you guys seeing how the storms over Corpus are cutting off our moisture feed? Quite interesting because they "pick up" again just after Houston... will be interesting to see if Bill's northeastward progression will move the "forcing" over Houston this evening, flooding out the metro, or if Bill's departure will influence the band of rain like a departing shortwave: it falls apart as the parent system exits... My gut feeling is different than the WPC discussion... But seeing as brighter skies are warming us up and increasing our CAPE, I suppose anything is possible.



Although I'm getting TORRENTIAL rain right now here in Dickinson, I was curious as to why there was a gap in between the action. Thanks for the insight. Wait and see at this point, nowcasting has begun lol.
Baseballdude2915
 
Posts: 192
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 6:21 pm
Location: Dickinson, Tx

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby brooksgarner » Wed Jun 17, 2015 2:49 pm

Yes, you guys are under a pretty good little band in Dickinson!

If Victoria and Corpus weren't getting the rain, we'd be getting flooded-out in up here Houston all day.

It'll be interesting if the WPC forecast comes to pass.

Of interest, we're getting two different messages from officials: the "flood threat is increasing" (WPC) and "the flood threat is diminishing" (NWS). I tend to lean toward our local guys, but from observation I'd agree that while we're not out of the woods in Houston, the city got pretty darned lucky. Most people will never understand how close we came to a Memorial Day repeat, or worse.
KHOU 11 MET
Latest blogs from the weather team, updated daily! http://www.khou.com/weather/weather-blog
http://fb.com/khouBrooks
http://twitter.com/brooksKHOU
http://instagram.com/wxbrooks
  • '12 Sandy (P3 Orion)
  • '91 Bob
  • '85 Gloria
User avatar
brooksgarner
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
 
Posts: 177
Joined: Tue Jun 04, 2013 3:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby Ounce » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:11 pm

There are two parallel lines of precip crossing the border at Laredo that are moving towards Beeville.
Ounce
 
Posts: 312
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2010 10:18 pm
Location: Houston

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:46 pm

For the Austin area:

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
343 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

TRAVIS TX-
343 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 340 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THIS WILL
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...TANGLEWOOD
FOREST...MANOR...WEST LAKE HILLS...ROLLINGWOOD...SHADY HOLLOW...
ONION CREEK...SUNSET VALLEY...SAN LEANNA...CREEDMOOR...DEL
VALLE... PILOT KNOB AND MANCHACA.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16920
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:49 pm

This area near Baffin Bay has be ongoing for at least 8-10 hours.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 1220 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER...LOCATED OVER
WALDRON FIELD...OR NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
KNOTS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
INGLESIDE ON THE BAY...TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY CORPUS CHRISTI...CORPUS
CHRISTI BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI.



Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16920
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:50 pm

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/17/15 2047Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2030Z WARREN
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT. APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO PREVIOUS SPENES CONCERNING HVY RAINFALL ALONG E TX/W LA
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...PERSISTENT S TO N DIRECTED HVY RAIN BAND
WITHIN STRONG CONFLUENT REGIME IS SLOWLY SHIFTING N AND E STRADDLING THE
TX/LA BORDER. VIS STLT IMAGERY SHOWS ACTIVE REDEVELOPING CELLS ALONG THE
SWRN EDGE OF THIS BAND ALLOWING FOR BACK BUILDING ALONG THE NRN TX COAST.
HAVE NOTICED THAT CAPE VALUES HAVE BEEN DECREASING ALONG THE COAST IN
GOES SOUNDER DATA WHICH MAY BEGIN TO ALLOW THE SRN PORTION OF THIS BAND
THAT HAS REMAINED ANCHORED TO THE COAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NWD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HRS. STILL IN THE IMMEDIATE 1-2 HR TIME FRAME THINK THERE WILL
REMAIN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE TO PROMOTE NEAR STATIONARY
CELLS ALONG THE COASTLINE. ALL THE WHILE NEW CELLS ARE FIRING ACROSS
CENTRAL LA AND FEEDING INTO THE MAIN BAND. THIS IS GRADUALLY SUPPORTING A
SLIGHT EWD SHIFT IN HVY RAINFALL AXIS FROM TX INTO SWRN AND W-CENTRAL LA.
AS ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SHIFT N AND E INTO CENTRAL AND NRN LA ADDITIONAL
HVY RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16920
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:53 pm

Flash Flood Watches across SE Texas have been extended until 11:00 PM CDT.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
346 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

HOUSTON-POLK-TRINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...GROVETON...
LIVINGSTON...ONALASKA...TRINITY
346 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...HOUSTON...POLK AND TRINITY.

* UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD TOWARD TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
NEAR FORT WORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FEED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP AND TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WATCH AREA. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* STREET FLOODING AND POSSIBLY SOME STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-SAN JACINTO-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...DAYTON...
EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...
LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
MADISONVILLE...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...
RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...
TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WEIMAR...WHARTON...
WILLIS...WINNIE
346 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...JACKSON...
LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...SAN JACINTO...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING

* TROPICAL STORM BILL NEARING FORT WORTH WILL PULL MOISTURE NORTH
INTO THE WATCH AREA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 1 INCH BUT
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* THE GROUND IS STILL WET AND NEARLY SATURATED IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
TO CREATE RUNOFF. STREET FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT
DURING THE WATCH PERIOD. SMALL STREAM...RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING
THREAT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS RUNOFF FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINS
COALESCE INTO THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16920
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 3:56 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENDING THE FLOOD WATCH TO 11 PM.

VERY MOIST AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE AND FEEDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE GULF THANKS TO TD BILL. STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN IN PLACE NEAR
CRP AND THE GULF WATERS TO A COMBINATION OF S/W OVER MEXICO AND
THE CONVERGENCE ON THE FAR SOUTH FLANK OF BILL MERGING INTO THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH ARCS AROUND INTO CHAMBERS COUNTY AND UP
INTO NEWTON/JASPER COUNTIES. THE MOISTURE STILL FLOWING BACK INTO
SETX AND WITH THE INCOMING MEXICO S/W THINK THAT IT IS A GOOD IDEA
TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 11 PM. RAINS THOUGH INTENSE AT
TIMES SHOULD BE MORE OF A WIDE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED NATURE
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SWITCHING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING NEAR AUSTIN SPREADING EASTWARD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF
90+ AND 72-75 DEWPOINTS SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING AND BE FUEL FOR STORMS MAYBE EVEN SOME STRONG STORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY BROAD RANGE...MANY SITES
LESS THAN 0.25" BUT SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. YESTERDAYS SOAKING
COMBINED WITH TODAYS RAINS HAS DONE A GREAT JOB OF SATURATING THE
SOIL SO RUNOFF WILL BE EASY AND PLENTIFUL IF HEAVY RAINS DEVELOP.

THE BEST CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH THURSDAY AND SO WILL
KEEP POPS HIGHER NORTH AND LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE
CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN BUT AGAIN MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE.

RAIN CHANCES DO DECREASE GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND SHEAR AXIS RETREATS INTO THE HILL
COUNTRY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT RAIN AND LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 90S. GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
RETURN TO THE REGION AS MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE GULF FINALLY
MOVES INTO TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE GULF RETREATS EASTWARD.

.RIVERS...
MANY OF THE RIVERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AND SOME TO MAJOR
AND EVEN THREATENING RECORD LEVELS. THE FLOODING ON THE MUSTANG
BASIN IS NEARING HISTORIC LEVELS WITH HIGHWAY 59 CLOSED AND
REROUTED AS WELL AS MANY HOUSES CUT OFF.

45

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY WITH BANDS OF
SHOWERS REMAINING BEHIND. TAF SITES RELATIVELY QUIET IN BETWEEN RAIN
AREAS TO THE EAST AND WEST. AS BILL LIFTS NORTH AND RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST...WILL SEE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE MARINE AREA SLACKEN SOME ALLOWING FOR WINDS...SEAS AND STORM
TIDES TO ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASE. HOWEVER WILL STILL MAINTAIN
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ON WESTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH...GENERALLY 10
TO 15 KNOTS...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 5
TO 6 FEET AT BUOYS 19 AND 35. SHOULD DROP A FOOT OR SO BY TOMORROW
AND ANOTHER FOOT BY THE WEEKEND.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/TxWeatherBoard
Twitter @TxWeatherBoard
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 16920
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 3:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6

PreviousNext

Return to Weather Forum

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron