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JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:24 am

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1217 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 1214 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
EL CAMPO...EDNA...PALACIOS...GANADO...LA WARD...PIERCE...LOLITA...
BLESSING...CORDELE...EGYPT...LAKE TEXANA DAM...MORALES...
DANEVANG...LOUISE...GARWOOD...VANDERBILT...MIDFIELD AND NADA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby kellybell4770 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 11:40 am

we are supposed to go camping at Lake Texana tomorrow - anyone know how I can find out about road closures between Angleton and there? Thanks
Satan is bad. Jesus is good. Be like Jesus.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby unome » Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:23 pm

kellybell4770 wrote:we are supposed to go camping at Lake Texana tomorrow - anyone know how I can find out about road closures between Angleton and there? Thanks


http://www.drivetexas.org
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby kellybell4770 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:31 pm

thank you so much! it's perfect!
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:37 pm

06172015 mcd0233.gif

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0233
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 171828Z - 180028Z

SUMMARY...INFLOW BANDS INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL REMAIN
CAPABLE OF HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3". FLASH FLOODING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED 6-12" LOCALLY.

DISCUSSION...TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS -- ONE A BAND NEAR THE
LA/TX BORDER AND A SECOND A MORE DISORGANIZED CLUSTER ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX -- HAVE BEEN SPREADING OUTWARD AT ~10 KTS BY A
GROWING COLD POOL ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. HOURLY RAIN RATES AS OF
LATE HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO 2.5" (NEAR THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE REGION). LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN BOTH AREAS ARE IN THE
6-9" RANGE, WITH 10-13" AMOUNTS INDICATED BY RADAR INLAND OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST. DESPITE RAP FORECASTS TO THE CONTRARY,
CONVERGENT 850 HPA INFLOW IS SEEN ACROSS BOTH AREAS, WITH
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG SEEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF AND LA WITH 2000-3000 J/KG CAPES ACROSS SOUTHERN
TX. VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE 25-45 KT INFLOW INTO THE REGION,
2-3 TIMES THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.

THERE IS A FAIRLY UNIFIED SIGNAL IN THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FOR
LOCAL 3-5" AMOUNTS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER AND LOCAL 5-7" AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TX THROUGH 00Z, WHICH COULD OCCUR WITHIN 2-3
HOURS. WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 3" POSSIBLE, FLASH FLOODING
IS CONSIDERED LIKELY OVER QUICKLY SATURATING SOILS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jun 17, 2015 12:45 pm

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

LIBERTY TX-GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
144 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 142 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING NORTH INTO THE ADVISORY AREA. WITH THE
SOIL SATURATED IN MANY AREAS AND STANDING WATER IN OTHER THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAPID RUNOFF INTO LOW LYING ROADS AND AREAS.

THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ANAHUAC...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...COVE...HIGH ISLAND...BOLIVAR
PENINSULA...WINNIE...CRYSTAL BEACH...STOWELL...GILCHRIST...ROLLOVER
PASS...HANKAMER...OAK ISLAND AND WALLISVILLE.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby nuby3 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:07 pm

just noticed that NWS raised my Heavy Rain percentage from 50 to 80 for tonight.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby tireman4 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:14 pm

Me too.....80 percent. That would coincide with the Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion from the NWS Weather Prediction Center
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby Baseballdude2915 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:17 pm

nuby3 wrote:just noticed that NWS raised my Heavy Rain percentage from 50 to 80 for tonight.


They must think all the bands over Corpus will hold together and pull through here overnight.
That's going to be a mess if it does, slow moving and lots of life left. Bill isn't leaving us quietly.
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Re: JUNE 2015 -Tracking Tropical Depression Bill

Postby nuby3 » Wed Jun 17, 2015 1:25 pm

Baseballdude2915 wrote:
nuby3 wrote:just noticed that NWS raised my Heavy Rain percentage from 50 to 80 for tonight.


They must think all the bands over Corpus will hold together and pull through here overnight.
That's going to be a mess if it does, slow moving and lots of life left. Bill isn't leaving us quietly.


I agree, and if that did happen, it would be a real mess. i'm not confident in anything right now lol.
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