JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

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JUNE 2015 -Scattered Showers/Storms To End The Month

Postby BlueJay » Tue May 26, 2015 1:07 pm

Maybe we will get a reprieve in the weather department in June.
:geek: Stay tuned.
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins

Postby ticka1 » Tue May 26, 2015 1:34 pm

Larry Cosgrove sees this weather pattern continuing for at least 16 more days.
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins

Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 28, 2015 7:35 am

The GFS is suggesting lower pressures and a pesky upper low develops somewhere near SE Texas/SW Louisiana the first of next week along a stalled boundary. Depending on where this feature sets up or even develops, showers and storms could increase particularly near and East of the upper low. Time will tell.
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 29, 2015 7:57 am

The overnight guidance continues to advertise a developing upper low/trough very close to SE Texas and Louisiana during the first week of June. There continues to be a very potent Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave allowing rising air or favorable for thunderstorms to develop across the Eastern Pacific extending into the Gulf of Mexico and the Western Caribbean Sea. The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) also seem favorable for thunderstorms to develop with rising air and the global computer models may be 'sniffing' an inverted trough meandering across the Gulf of Mexico later next week. We will see.

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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins/Drier WX Finally!

Postby srainhoutx » Sun May 31, 2015 8:56 am

Here is a sight for sore eyes across Texas and Oklahoma for the next 7 days if the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast is correct. For all the new folks that have joined us over the past 3 months on The KHOU Weather Forum and our social media feeds via Facebook and Twitter (TxWeatherBoard), we welcome you!
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins/Drier WX Finally!

Postby Katdaddy » Sun May 31, 2015 11:37 am

Finally back to normal weather conditions across SE TX begin today! A nice mostly dry day and week ahead for once and its about time. Only a 20-30% chance of showers this afternoon. The Houston-Galveston NWS state it well:

RESPITE FROM THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY!
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins/Drier WX Finally!

Postby Katdaddy » Sun May 31, 2015 9:01 pm

Finally a beautiful normal SE TX tropical sky.
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins/Drier WX Finally!

Postby Texaspirate11 » Sun May 31, 2015 9:04 pm

My sunglasses and I were finally reunited today.
It was a lovely meeting.
Here's to all Cat 5's and NO landfalls this season.

I'm looking forward to a most boring week in weather. :D
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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins/Drier WX Finally!

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:35 am

Hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin officially starts today and continues until November 30th. Thankfully we have a quiet weather pattern right now, but with a northerly flow aloft it is possible that any Mesoscale Convective Systems that develop near the Panhandle may drift S this week as they weaken in a very dry airmass. The upper ridge looks to continue throughout the work week but may begin to shift West this weekend as a very deep trough develops across the Eastern United States and what likely will be Major Hurricane Blanca nears the Pacific Coast of Mexico. The combination of a trough to our East and a Eestern Pacific Hurricane to our WSW with increasing moisture could offer some shower and storm chances late this weekend into early next week. There are some indications that pressures begin to lower across the Western Gulf of Mexico next week as the monsoonal trough drifts N and brings its tropical moisture from the Western Caribbean into the Western Gulf. Enjoy the quiet and dry start to the month of June after a very wet Spring season across our Region!

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Re: JUNE 2015 - Hurricane Season Begins/Drier WX Finally!

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jun 01, 2015 11:59 am

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Upper level high pressure trying to gain a foothold over the region and shut off the rainfall that has plagued the area for nearly the entire month of May.

The period from March 1st to May 31st has been the wettest Spring ever for the City of Houston with 26.61 inches in comparison this is more rainfall in a 3 month period than the entire drought year of 2011 (24.57in)!

So areas of Harris County Fort Bend Counties received over 20.0 inches of rainfall in the month of May alone.


Upper level flow is out of the north and northwest with a dry air mass in place so not expecting any rainfall today. Will have to keep an eye on potential MCS activity to our north on Tuesday as model soundings are a bit more unstable, but think any activity will likely remain north of the region.

Moisture level increase mid to late week, but so does the upper level ridging expanding out of MX. This should keep rain chances low until possibly late in the weekend.

River Flooding:

San Jacinto River:
River is falling back within banks this morning and will continue to fall.

Brazos River:
River is above flood stage at Richmond and Rosharon and appears to be at crest. Impacts continue across Fort Bend and Brazoria Counties and the river will only slowly fall over the next 48 hours.

Trinity River:
River remain in major flood at Liberty and this is likely to continue for the next several days as upstream flood waves move downstream. Many homes and subdivisions will remain cut off.
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