June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

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June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby BlueJay » Tue May 27, 2014 7:48 am

The official start of hurricane season will begin on June 1, 2014. So far 2014 has acted differently than previous years. We shall see what happens next!
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue May 27, 2014 9:38 am

I'll offer sort of a spoiler alert for the June thread. Keep an eye on the upper pattern of reoccurring Western troughs that are slow moving as well as the tropical Pacific and Western Gulf/NW Caribbean Sea. There is growing suggestions from various Global guidance that some form of tropical trouble could spin up from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, Bay Of Campeche or NW Caribbean as the monsoonal trough slowly lifts N and robust moisture streams across Mexico as the sub tropical jet remains active. Another meandering upper low may also offer additional chance for rainfall across our Region. A +PDO and developing El Nino tends to keep us a bit cooler and wetter than average.
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby BlueJay » Tue May 27, 2014 10:02 am

Maybe I won't need the soaker hose for a while! That would be nice.
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby srainhoutx » Thu May 29, 2014 2:38 pm

The 12Z global guidance as well as the ensembles suggest the upper Ridge expected to build over Mexico will be rather flat in the early June time frame and then shift a bit W leaving a weakness across the central and Eastern portions of Texas. It is also note worthy that the global suite of guidance does indicate the potential for a broad area of low surface pressure to develop extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. This broad monsoonal gyre may develop a weak tropical system next week that would likely fester for several day as the steering currents remain very weak and generally light Westerly's control the EPAC and extreme Western Atlantic Basin. There is some indication that the Bermuda Ridge may strengthen a bit and a general 'blocky pattern' remains in place across our Region.
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05292014 12Z Euro 850 mb get_legacy_plot-web249-20140529185734-19544-1110.gif
05292014 12Z Euro 500mb get_legacy_plot-web248-20140529185653-16488-1087.gif
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby srainhoutx » Fri May 30, 2014 7:49 am

The overnight guidance continues to advertise the monsoonal gyre near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) and the Bay Of Campeche (SW Gulf) may need to be watched a bit more closely. The NHC is suggesting that tropical development is likely in about 5 days near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a potential secondary surface low developing the Bay of Campeche within the broad are of low pressure. Since the system appears to be weak and the placement of the upper Ridge across Mexico may not be as strong as expected, rain chance could increase across portions of Coastal Texas and Louisiana later next week.
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05302014 00Z Euro f192.gif
05302014 06Z GFS f180.gif
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby jasons » Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:28 am

Pretty sloppy setup now with the trough elongated and drifting. On water vapor, it looks like two circulations are along it - one in NC Louisiana and the more dominant one offshore East of Brownsville spinning away to the SW.

I noticed the low level clouds were racing from east to west, which is different that from the NW and West the past couple of days. Will be interesting to see if the sun can get things going today.

I had another .42" yesterday. I finished May with 12.37". Not bad after only .07" for all of April!

19.44" for the year so far. Almost 2/3 of that fell in May.
Last edited by jasons on Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:31 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby redneckweather » Sun Jun 01, 2014 8:28 am

It's time to put May in the past and welcome the 1st day of Hurricane Season! Most hurricane forecasters are saying it will be a slow season, mainly do to the stregthening El Nino but this makes me uneasy. Let's don't forget we had I believe 4 majors hit the US coastline in 2004. This year I would look for close in homegrown development in the Gulf of Mexico/Western Caribbean. Just my worthless 2 cents on the matter.

My house missed all the rain yesterday which I'm thankful for. I needed a day to dry out. Now I'm hoping that I get a storm to sit on top of me today before things really start to dry out n heat up going into next week.
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby cperk » Sun Jun 01, 2014 9:47 am

Looks like the season is starting on cue.
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An elongated and nearly stationary area of low pressure located over
the Bay of Campeche extends northeastward into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. Although shower activity is currently disorganized,
some slow development of this disturbance is possible this week as
environmental conditions become marginally conducive.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby jasons » Sun Jun 01, 2014 12:00 pm

YTD Rainfall at IAH just popped above normal:
http://www.srh.weather.gov/rtimages/hgx ... 14plot.png
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Re: June 2014: WET & WILD OR HIGH & DRY?

Postby Karen » Sun Jun 01, 2014 1:32 pm

I think Gulf development is unlikely, (East Pac seems favored) if it does occurs, it likely will be weak, and well East. And the bitterly cold Winter still has cast a cool shadow on our part of the Gulf, which may not be a bad thing if we can talk TS or Cat 1 hurricanes during the prime time of the season, all the forum fun, with coastal residents not losing homes.

With all due respect Ed. those of us who live on the coast would have alot of damage from flooding. I have lived in Friendswood since 1976 all of the flooding here accord during Tropical storms there just is not enough steering to move these storms along. I am hoping for not tropical activity this year.
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