January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby srainhoutx » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:55 am

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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby djmike » Mon Jan 27, 2014 10:57 am

Ok now Im getting confused. Im hearing more and more this morning that now this is going to be more of an ice/sleet event now. And now that qpf will be really low west of the sabine. I do know it will be colder than last event and last longer, but are we starting to lose our moisture? Will the accumilations of ice/sleet be more than last event or less. I'm not wishcasting or anything of that nature, the reason Im asking is because I need to make a firm decision for my employees today and I would like to give them the most accurate info (at this time) and inform them what they should do tomorrow. i.e. (Come into work, make it a half day, dont come in..etc.). Thanks in advance.
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby tireman4 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:00 am

Andrew wrote:Wow everyone, let's just Relax and take a step back. Let's try and not live and die by the models.



I was just about to say. Thank you Andrew. Reread Jeff's analysis of this upcoming event. Wxman 57 agrees with it and so does Sraintx. Calm down and relax. More information is coming in as we speak.
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby Andrew » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:12 am

Remember a lot of the models are having trouble with some of the meso banding and the phasing of moisture from both the north and south. That will be key here in determine accumulation rates. The faster that occurs the better. Around 12z tomorrow seems to be when that really takes place
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby Wood6818 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:14 am

Hello All,

Longtime lurker. I just wanted to say I am one that really appreciates this board and all the Mets that post here.
over the years I have always gotten great info from here, especially IKE. Over the years i can say that predicting Winter weather in Houston is like playing the lottery.Models say one thing but it turns out totally different.I think we should just follow Srainhoutx method and watch the players involved as it unfolds, instead model watching. anyway it goes we will be a mess tomorrow, but I would rather have some white stuff.
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby mcheer23 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:16 am

The NWS still has .3 inches of snow for me. Nobody said Snow is out of the question. Just watch the event unfold
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:18 am

The University of Houston is planning 2 radiosonde launches tomorrow - around 5am and 11am. This should identify whether the model projections of an above-freezing layer (warm nose) aloft is there as the models predicted. For now, I expect that elevated roads and bridges will become quite icy by tomorrow afternoon. Many (most) will be closed. There is a chance that the sleet and freezing rain may change over to snow in the evening, but I wouldn't count on any accumulations of snow for now.
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby Kingwood31 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:31 am

I'm cool with it just falling during the day instead of at night like last time where you couldn't really tell what was falling ;)
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby Andrew » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:35 am

6z sounding launch here at college station
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Re: January: Strong Arctic Front/Winter Storm Watch Issued

Postby snowman65 » Mon Jan 27, 2014 11:36 am

What is forecast for Golden Triangle area for tomorrow please? Is it different than Houston area?
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