January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis

Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby hriverajr » Tue Dec 31, 2013 1:42 pm

Storm2k seems to be down again.
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 31, 2013 2:03 pm

WPC Forecaster Paul Kocin presented a great update this morning regarding the volatility of the pattern that the Central and Eastern United States will be dealing with in the medium range....

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2013

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 03 2014 - 12Z TUE JAN 07 2014

A VERY WINTRY SCENARIO IN THE EAST STARTS OFF THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST WITH A QUICK WARM UP IN THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THE
WARM UP IS SHORT LIVED AS A NEW AND SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS BY DAY
4/SATURDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD BY SUNDAY DAY 5. WITH LARGE
UNCERTAIN IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME FORM OF PRECIPITATION EVENT
WILL FORM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS NEXT OUTBREAK OF COLD AIR ON
DAY 5 INTO DAY 6/MONDAY...WITH A HUGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM A
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO A MAJOR CYCLONE. BY DAY 7/TUESDAY...MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BELOW TO MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


A CUTOFF UPPER RIDGE OVER GREENLAND/NORTHEAST CANADA WILL HELP
RETAIN AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT CONTINUES TO
FORCE A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE EASTERN US TO REMAIN ON A PATH
CONDUCIVE TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US ON DAY 3.
WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE TROUGH EVOLUTION SEEM FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD
FOR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE EVOLUTION OF A COLD CANADIAN HIGH
BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ARE ALSO
STRAIGHTFORWARD...THE DETAILS OF THE ACTUAL TROUGH EVOLUTION AND
RESULTING SURFACE BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE REMAINS COMPLEX.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL CENTERS
OF LOW PRESSURE OF VARYING STRENGTH COMING TOGETHER TO EVENTUALLY
FORM A CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MAKE THIS A
CHALLENGING FORECAST EVEN AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN
GENERAL...CONTINUITY FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS MAINTAINED
BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH INPUT
FROM THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS...BOTH OF WHICH MAINTAIN A SIMILAR
SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH NEARING THE EAST COAST. WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH NEARING THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...A MULTIPLE
CENTER SURFACE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED WITH THE REMAINING
QUESTION BEING HOW INTENSE THE WESTERNMOST SURFACE LOW RESPONDS TO
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE OTHER SURFACE CENTER OR CENTERS SCOOT
FARTHER EASTWARD. IN ANY EVENT...WHATEVER SNOW IS FALLING ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD OUT TO SEA DURING THE DAY
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD.

WITH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE TRENDING TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
FROM THE SHORT RANGE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER WESTERN
CANADA WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW OVER NW CANADA ALSO BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD AS WELL. BY DAY 5...ANOTHER LARGE VORTEX
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A HUGE MASS OF
ARCTIC AIR POISED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ALSO CHARACTERIZE
THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING THE LARGEST
AMPLITUDE AND GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE ARCTIC AIR WITH
GFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY FLATTER
SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY BY DAY 6. WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF CREATES A
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC SCENARIO BY DAY 6...IT REMAINS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY SOLUTION AS IT REMAINS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
CORRESPONDING ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS ACTUALLY
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION AND IS
SOMEWHAT FOLLOWED WHILE STILL SHOWING A VERY LARGE COLD OUTBREAK
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US ON DAYS 6 INTO 7...WITH THE
DETAILS OF HOW LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR STILL VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN
AT THIS POINT WITH A VERY MODEST SYSTEM SHOWN AT THE PRESENT TIME
BUT WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE DAYS GET CLOSER.

CHANCES ARE THAT THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE FROM THE TENNESSEE AND
OHIO VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST.

KOCIN

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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby cristina6871 » Tue Dec 31, 2013 3:05 pm

srainhoutx wrote:There are some significant changes via the 12Z Euro today. That model now suggests the much colder anomalies both in the temperatures expected and the placement of the mean trough axis is further W and S by hour 144.



I'm always trying to learn what the language on here means; can you tell me what this means?
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby MontgomeryCoWx » Tue Dec 31, 2013 3:25 pm

He's saying if the 12z Euro verified, we would be much colder and it wouldn't be a "glancing blow@
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby srainhoutx » Tue Dec 31, 2013 3:48 pm

The Climate Prediction Center just updated their Day 6-10 Outlook. Interesting to note the below normal temperatures and the above normal precipitation as well as some the analogs. The Analogs made a slight adjustment W today ~vs~ the outlook issued yesterday.

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE DECEMBER 31 2013

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 06 - 10 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE PREDICTION OF A 500-HPA
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS TO CENTRAL ALASKA.
MODELS AGREE ON BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS IN A BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FAVOR A DEEPER TROUGH
THAN DO THE GEFS AND THE GFS DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THE CANADIAN ALSO FAVORS A
DEEPER TROUGH SO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS WEIGHTED MOST HEAVILY IN TODAY'S
BLEND.
THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS PREDICT A NOTABLY LESS SHARP RIDGE OVER ALASKA THAN
DO THE GEFS OR CANADIAN MODELS WHICH HAS SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM CONSEQUENCES,
THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN ON YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.


THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS UNDER EXPECTED NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HIGH
PROBABILITIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EXPECTED CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. THE ECMWF'S DEEPER TROUGH WOULD PUSH COLD AIR INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS, WHILE THE GEFS SUGGESTS LESS OF A SOUTHERN PUSH TO COLD AIR. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN DIMINISHED PROBABILITIES THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM WHAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD IMPLY. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WESTERN CONUS ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO CONFLICTING PREDICTIONS IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, AND SOME SUGGESTION BY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES FOR A
MEAN TROUGH AXIS FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS PREDICT. TELECONNECTIONS ON
THE POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS INDICATED BY THE MANUAL BLEND
ALSO SUGGEST THE CHANCE OF A TROUGH DEEPER AND FARTHER WEST THAN ITS LOCATION
ON THE MANUAL BLEND. THUS TEMPERATURE CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH
OF THE COUNTRY OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THE NEAR-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE ECMWF AND GEFS. TEMPERATURES IN
ALASKA ARE SIMILARLY UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS PREDICTION OF A NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE
STATE, WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO OTHER MODELS AND YESTERDAY'S SOLUTIONS FOR
A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS STILL FAVORED, BUT WITH
LESS CERTAINTY THAN ON YESTERDAY'S OUTLOOK.

THE BROAD TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE CHANCES
FOR NEAR TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF
THE COUNTRY. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS. MODELS
INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND ELEVATED CHANCES ARE RESTRICTED TO A FAIRLY NARROW
BAND, REFLECTING SHORT WAVES MOVING SOUTHWARD IN THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN ALASKA, WITH
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE WEST, REFLECTING THE RIDGE AXIS
EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE DURING THE PERIOD.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HINTS OF CONFLICTING PREDICTIONS
FOR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
Attachments
12312013 CPC 610temp_new.gif
12312013 CPC 610prcp_new.gif
12312013 Day +8 Analogs 610analog_off.gif
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 31, 2013 5:57 pm

FWIW, the GFS for three consecutive runs now has shown the possibility of "wintry mischief" early next week in portions of Central and North Texas.
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby ronyan » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:12 pm

The 12z GFS shows cold for next week but is too dry for precip. IAH below freezing on the 7th-8th for ~36hrs under apparently cloudy conditions, lows in the mid 20s with a sub 0 dewpoint!
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 01, 2014 12:54 pm

Well the Global ensembles and deterministic guidance did converge on an amplified pattern of that of a very strong Gulf of Alaska Ridge and a deep trough across the Plains and on East. There are still a lot of details to be worked out regarding what the sensible weather will actually be, but we now have agreement that a one/two shot of Arctic air will drop S across our Region and temperatures will turn sharply colder. I do notice a couple of short waves or upper air disturbances riding S from Western Canada and the Pacific NW into Arizona by Tuesday. One short wave/upper low looks rather potent and is depicted on all three of the Global models (Euro/GFS/Canadian). There are already hints of a Coastal trough/low attempting to develop early next week offshore of Brownsville, so we will have to monitor those finer details as they get a bit closer. It appears the 1050-1060mb Arctic high will deliver very cold air from Western Canada into much of the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States all the way to the Gulf Coast. The Arctic front is expected to drop as far S as the NW Caribbean Sea and Cuba, so it is a very strong cold front.
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 01, 2014 4:04 pm

Climate Prediction Center Day 6-10 Outlook issued:

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED JANUARY 01 2014

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 07 - 11 2014

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM
THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES AGREE ON THE PREDICTION OF BROAD
500-HPA TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO HUDSON BAY. A RIDGE
IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, WITH DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON
ITS AMPLITUDE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC THAN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS HAS IMPORTANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD SINCE A SHARPER RIDGE OR
DEEPER TROUGH WOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE CONUS. THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WAS WEIGHTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CANADIAN OR GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS IN TODAY'S BLEND REFLECTING AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS
DETERMINISTIC RUN.


THE CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY ELEVATED IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO COLD CONDITIONS FORECAST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS WILL DEPEND
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THE MORE ZONAL SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES WOULD PRODUCE
RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE THE
SHARPER TROUGHS OF THE CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES WOULD INCREASE CHANCES OF COLD
CONDITIONS IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL CONUS. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
FOLLOWS THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PREDICTED BY THE GEFS ENSEMBLES WITH
TEMPERATURES REDUCED SOMEWHAT IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES.
TEMPERATURES IN
ALASKA ARE UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 12Z DETERMINISTIC GFS
PREDICTION OF A NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE STATE, WHICH IS
IN CONTRAST TO THE CANADIAN AND MANY GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT MAINTAIN A
RIDGE OVER THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN
MOST OF ALASKA.


THE BROAD TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IS EXPECTED TO ELEVATE
CHANCES FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PART OF THE COUNTRY. CHANGES BETWEEN YESTERDAY'S AND TODAY'S PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK IN THE NORTHEAST REFLECT THE TIMING OF AN EXPECTED PRECIPITATION EVENT
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, WHICH EXITS THE REGION BEFORE THE START OF TODAY'S 6-10
DAY PERIOD. THE GEFS REFORECAST TOOL NOW FAVORS BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
TOTALS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN GULF STATES REFLECTS EXPECTED RETURN
FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AROUND THE INITIALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE
GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH
ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FAVORED IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE REFLECTING
THE CHANCES FOR AN ENHANCED JET OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA PREDICTED BY THE ECMWF
AND SOME GEFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE
TO BE FAVORED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BEHIND THE EXPECTED TROUGH AXIS.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAY'S 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEANS AND HINTS OF CONFLICTING PREDICTIONS
FOR CONDITIONS LATE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.
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Re: January: Will A Cold & Stormy Pattern Return?

Postby srainhoutx » Wed Jan 01, 2014 8:42 pm

A strong cold front is pushing S across N Texas at this hour. Light snow is falling just NE of Amarillo and across Northern Oklahoma ushering in much colder air. Tomorrow we will be lucky to reach 50F with gusty NW winds. The high for tomorrow will likely be whatever the lows tonight are reached before the front passes.
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